Invest 93L,SE Carolinas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Weatherfreak14]

aww.

[Rainband]

The thunderstorms we had today looked better.

[SouthFloridawx]

Also as mentioned by the 805pm TWD by the TPC.

A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR SPINNING NEAR 26N72W.

This upper level low can be seen here on water vapor imagry.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

This may be causing some shear over the convection.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... or1-1.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... shr-1.html

As this ULL continues to weaken, the trough continues to pull out and the high builds over top. Then we'll see some more convection.

[Stormavoider]

The southern drift has ended. If anything it seems to be drifting north.

[cycloneye]

A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA...EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR A FEW
HUNDRED MILES...HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFTS NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.


10:30 PM TWO for 93L.

[Weatherfreak14]

ok. Hopefully the go tommrow. We need rain. And surf...

[Scott_inVA]

Are there model tracks for this invest??

FREEBIE MAP with 08/15 0Z runs:



Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[CronkPSU]

wow, models still look like a spider...albeit a dead smushed up one now

[Scott_inVA]

wow, models still look like a spider...albeit a dead smushed up one now

AVNI is the GFS (interpolated)...it likes to recurve everything too soon. Factoring that in, it may have the right idea: slow development track WNW/NW, along Florida to perhaps SAV/HHI.

Shear and dry air need to slacken and it has a shot of reaching TD status on Tuesday.

Scott

[Rainband]

Until that ULL goes Buh Bye. Notta.

[whereverwx]

Until that ULL goes Buh Bye. Notta.

Yikes. Exactly what I was about to say. It looks absolutely terrible on the water vapor.

[tailgater]

Starting to get a few showers rotating east of WPB

http://www.srh.weather.gov/ridge/radar. ... X&loop=yes

Still the ULL will have to move west if anything is to get going here.

[Scott_inVA]

Until that ULL goes Buh Bye. Notta.

Correct, tho the ULL should weaken over the next 36 hrs. Supposing the system maintains some degree of continuity and can hold some convection, it may organize and get close to the FL/GA/SC coast.

All season I've been unenthused with anything (especially Chris) and I certainly have doubts this gets going unless the dry air weakens and shear abates.

Scott

[tailgater]

This can't be right
http://www.wunderground.com/global/BS.html
Check out Turtle Cay and Marsh Harbour

[JonathanBelles]

somethins fishy tailgater

[Thunder44]

This can't be right
http://www.wunderground.com/global/BS.html
Check out Turtle Cay and Marsh Harbour

Those pressures have been consistently lower than other reporting stations in the area since yesterday. And they are really coming from the same weather station. Just ignore them.

[Stormavoider]

The area over the northern Bahamas looks interesting on Miami radar.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=AMX&loop=yes

ps. I understand the angle thing.

[Nimbus]

Pressures were about 2 millibars higher yesterday at turtle cay so the trend may still be valid. NHC has the pressures lowest near 1012 just north of the Bahamas now.

Assuming the dry air rolls west and the ULL to the east doesn't increase the shear something could get going.

The models all have a sharp hook west later in the forecast which means the mid week trough is expected to miss?

[storms in NC]

You can see on the loop that it is starting to wrap around.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I will be gone to Dillon SC today. My son inlaw granddad passed away. So I'll be back tonight. See how things look then.

Sorry to hear that and good luck with everything today.

Thank you all very much. But while I was there in SC my daughter was in a bad weck In Jacksonville. I made it to the hospital in 2 hours. I had wings.

Well I will try a keep a eye on this thing to see what it is going to do. I think it is going to flar up and take off. But no more that a TS.

Back tonight

[Bane]

The models aren't in agreement on where this goes. From the NWS in Wilmington this morning:

BIGGEST SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. ITS
UNCHANGED FOR NOW...BUT THAT COULD QUICKLY CHANGE. A PLANE WILL FLY
RECON INTO THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL BRING IT
NORTH...BUT DO SO IN DIFFERENT WAYS. GFS SHOWS WEAK CLOSED LOW WHICH
IT BRINGS TO THE NC COAST. CANADIAN DEVELOPS A WEAK LOW THAT MOVES
NORTH...PASSING EAST OF HATTERAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SOLUTION IS OFFERED BY THE ECMWF WHICH STALLS THE LOW OFF
THE NC/SC BORDER. WRF IS THE ONLY MODEL TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEVELOP
OF THE SYSTEM. NOT PLACING MUCH STOCK IN IT THOUGHT...ITS MORE
RECENT TROPICAL PERFORMANCES HAVE NOT BEEN MEMORABLE.

GIVEN ALL THE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS DECIDED TO GO WITH SOMETHING
SIMILAR TO THE GFS WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW INTERACTING WITH FRONT IN
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 AND KNOCKED A
DEGREE OR TWO OFF TEMPERATURES. IF THE LOW/WAVE DOES MOVE THIS WAY
POPS WILL NEED TO BE MUCH HIGH ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
SYSTEM...IN WHATEVER FORM IT TAKES...INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT.