MJO

#81 Postby **LarryWx** » Thu Aug 10, 2006 12:27 pm

Although I have no concrete stats to analyze, my own recall suggests to me that the reliability of this indicator has been seemingly unimpressive during the last couple of years, the time that I've followed it to any extent. So, I personally won't put too much stock in this indicator until an objective analysis based on a sufficiently long enough period tells me there is a decent correlation, if it ever suggests this.

wxmann_91 · #82 Postby **wxmann_91** » Thu Aug 10, 2006 12:32 pm

I think the MJO has a bigger influence on the Pacific than the Atlantic. Katrina formed during a dry MJO phase, IIRC. However, this year's activity spikes in the EPAC (Bud-Emilia) and WPAC (recent typhoons) have been occurring in times of wet MJO. My 2 cents.

clfenwi · #83 Postby **clfenwi** » Thu Aug 10, 2006 12:38 pm

It's an old study (the data covers 1947-1997) but I'm not aware of anything more recent:

Maloney, E. D., and D. L. Hartmann, 2000:
Modulation of Hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico
by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Science., 287, 2002-
2004.

Derek Ortt · #84 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Aug 10, 2006 12:46 pm

thanks for the article, I will be reading it after I finish processing some dropsondes

Derek Ortt · #85 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Aug 10, 2006 3:34 pm

that articvle shows a very nice coorelation between GOM hurricanes and the MJO. Definately has anb impact on GOM hurricanes. I am now convinced of that after reading this study

#86 Postby **LarryWx** » Thu Aug 10, 2006 4:47 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:that articvle shows a very nice coorelation between GOM hurricanes and the MJO. Definately has anb impact on GOM hurricanes. I am now convinced of that after reading this study

What about the rest of the Atlantic? Any clear correlations?

#87 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Aug 12, 2006 12:50 pm

People should not be letting thier guards down. Just as you can be in an Wet Phase of MJO it looks like we are in the opposite right now. The MJO is starting to slowly creap into the EPAC. They will be the next ones to get things fired up and it will steadily move eastward towards our basin.

No reason for people to think the season is dead. It'll catch you by suprise when you least expect it.

Extremeweatherguy · #88 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Aug 12, 2006 12:54 pm

Looks like late August through most of September could be quite interesting in the Atlantic. I bet that it when we see most of this season's storms form.

#89 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 12, 2006 5:16 pm

Yep,just in time for the peak of the season,the wet phase of the MJO will arrive in the Atlantic.And all those posts about =Season is dead,It's boring,shear is everywhere etc,etc,etc will be a thing of the past.Fasten your seatbelts my friends from late August.

Extremeweatherguy · #90 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Aug 14, 2006 7:30 pm

'CaneFreak · #91 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 9:40 am

cycloneye wrote:Yep,just in time for the peak of the season,the wet phase of the MJO will arrive in the Atlantic.And all those posts about =Season is dead,It's boring,shear is everywhere etc,etc,etc will be a thing of the past.Fasten your seatbelts my friends from late August.

Yep because the area of subsidence is decreasing and now it appears that the wet phase of the MJO is knocking at the door of the Atlantic....Get ready for a wild ride!!! The next few weeks are going to make or break this hurricane season and make it a memorable season one way or another....

#92 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 9:42 am

yep we are not getting off that easy this season - I'm ready for the ride :eek:

#93 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:51 pm

GFS week 1 forecast

GFS week 2 forecast

15 Day forecast.

This was the EWP forecast.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... JO/ewp.gif

Jim Hughes · #94 Postby **Jim Hughes** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:12 pm

clfenwi wrote:It's an old study (the data covers 1947-1997) but I'm not aware of anything more recent:

Maloney, E. D., and D. L. Hartmann, 2000:
Modulation of Hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico
by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Science., 287, 2002-
2004.

I recall reading this article years ago. It was good and it had forecasting value.

Extremeweatherguy · #95 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:03 pm

I think Hurricane Hector is a good example of what this wet MJO is capable of. The "pulse" that spawned numerous storms in the western Pacific has moved east and created Hector. I can only imagine what is going to happen in the Atlantic when it reaches us.

boca · #96 Postby **boca** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:33 pm

The MJO wet phase is taking its sweet time moving east.

hcane27 · #97 Postby **hcane27** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:41 pm

It probably won't make it into the Atlantic with any signifcant impact .... should very weak ....

Extremeweatherguy · #98 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:43 pm

hcane27 wrote:It probably won't make it into the Atlantic with any signifcant impact .... should very weak ....

actually, it should have a major impact. Expect the number of storms to ramp up considerably during the next few weeks.

#99 Postby **btangy** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 11:47 pm

hcane27 wrote:It probably won't make it into the Atlantic with any signifcant impact .... should very weak ....

Actually, the MJO has a modulating impact on TCs in all basins. The MJO signal circumnavigates the tropics most clearly in the 200mb velocity potential anomalies.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... thly.shtml

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/i ... tlon.shtml

Negative anomalies are more favorable for TC genesis.

There's a really good COMET tutorial on the MJO presented by Dr. Roland Madden himself. There's a bit on the association of the MJO and TC genesis.

http://meted.ucar.edu/climate/mjo/

Cyclenall · #100 Postby **Cyclenall** » Sat Aug 19, 2006 1:32 am

hcane27 wrote:It probably won't make it into the Atlantic with any signifcant impact .... should very weak ....

Can you delete that post please? That is a odd comment with something that has a huge effect on tropical cyclones and development of tropical cyclones. The MJO has been a key player IMO.

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