Invest 93L,SE Carolinas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Stormavoider]

I'm dialed in on it.

[tgenius]

It sure seems like this invest is going to leave us wet in miami today and tommorow...

[Pileus]

Let's try that again, SouthFlWx please tell me where you got that Sat image with the station plots on it. Thanks

[weatherwindow]

In what may be a stupid question for the experts, how do you tell from a satellite view (or IR) whether a system is cold core or warm core? I understand the difference between the two theorectically, but I can't find any images that compare features between the two systems. Also, is there a visible way to tell that it's hybriding?

...hardly expert, but the proximity of primary convection to the center of the system could yield the visual or ir cue...particularly when viewing a fairly well developed low...non trop systems or transitioning trop systems show convective maxs as much as 300mi from the center...hybrid systems will begin with convection divorced from the center and as the process proceeds convection will begin forming within fairly close proximity to the center, say 50-100mi....hope that helps....rich

[Stratosphere747]

Let's try that again, SouthFlWx please tell me where you got that Sat image with the station plots on it. Thanks

You can use the images provided by the NHC. Just click on the boxes on top to get the obs and different images you would like.

[SouthFloridawx]

Let's try that again, SouthFlWx please tell me where you got that Sat image with the station plots on it. Thanks

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html

Main site

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

Floater

[Stratosphere747]

From the 8pm TWD. Looks as if the focus is on the area to the east. Forget the earlier models...

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N52W 29N67W 29N74W THEN AS A SFC TROF TO
S FLORIDA. THREE SFC LOWS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE FRONT. THE
ERN-MOST LOW IS 1014 MB CENTERED NEAR 29N61W. THIS LOW IS VERY
WEAK AS IT IS MAINLY A SMALL LOW CLOUD SWIRL WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS MORE ORGANIZED TO THE E OF THE LOW ALONG THE FRONT. A
1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 29N74W AND A 1013 MB LOW IS ANALYZED
NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THESE SYSTEMS ARE MORE ACTIVE
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-30N W OF 73W TO
S FLORIDA. AT THE MOMENT...THE 1012 MB LOW HAS A MORE
DISCERNIBLE LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. MODELS KEEP THIS AREA
RATHER STATIONARY OR DRIFT IT NWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BROAD LOW PRES AREA
AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME GRADUALLY MORE FAVORABLE.

[HurricaneGirl]

Cool site.. thanks!

[SouthFloridawx]

No problem.

[Nimbus]

The elongated circulation won't spin up very fast. Looks like we are starting to see persistent convection over one spot again.

There is a ridge over the Carolinas and Georgia but still some troughiness just north of the LLC that the models are apparantly predicting will nudge 93L north.

The troughiness may lift out soon leaving a LLC near 28N. The trough that is due mid week should pull this out to sea but the storm may have a chance to organize and approach the east coast before moving off to the northeast.

[Trugunzn]

doesnt look good:

[Extremeweatherguy]

Though I think this could develop into a weak TS over time, I still think the major upswing in activity is still about 5-10 days down the road. Between that point and the end of September we should see things go crazy (due to the wet phase of the MJO, climate, and 5 waves coming off Africa within the next week).

[Blown Away]

Are there model tracks for this invest??

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Looks like one should go by the 12z model plots then rather than the 18z models since they were farther east at initialization

[Yankeegirl]

I looked at the SFWMD siite, and they have the invests up, but no models... go figure!

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html

[Derek Ortt]

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060815 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060815 0000 060815 1200 060816 0000 060816 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.8N 78.0W 27.0N 78.2W 27.8N 78.3W 28.7N 78.7W
BAMM 26.8N 78.0W 27.1N 78.0W 28.0N 77.9W 29.1N 78.1W
A98E 26.8N 78.0W 26.8N 78.0W 27.2N 78.2W 27.9N 79.0W
LBAR 26.8N 78.0W 26.8N 78.5W 27.2N 79.2W 27.9N 79.9W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 31KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060817 0000 060818 0000 060819 0000 060820 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.3N 79.6W 29.0N 82.9W 28.2N 88.0W 28.5N 93.0W
BAMM 30.0N 78.6W 30.6N 81.5W 30.5N 86.2W 30.7N 90.7W
A98E 28.5N 79.6W 27.6N 80.7W 26.6N 82.5W 26.0N 85.9W
LBAR 28.5N 80.9W 29.5N 83.4W 30.2N 86.6W 31.0N 90.2W
SHIP 38KTS 47KTS 51KTS 51KTS
DSHP 38KTS 41KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.8N LONCUR = 78.0W DIRCUR = 180DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 27.9N LONM12 = 78.0W DIRM12 = 191DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 29.3N LONM24 = 77.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


these have been out for more than a half hour. However, they are not of much sue since they are centered on the Bahamian "low"

[Stormavoider]

You might say it's not looking good. But, now that allot of the convection has dissipated, You can See that there is some organization.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

[Thatsmrhurricane]

"WE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE WK LOW PRES AREA CNTRD NE OF
THE BAHAMAS. IT APPEARS THE LOW MAY BE BECMG A BIT MORE ORGANIZED
BASED ON SATL PRESENTATIONS THIS EVNG ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED OVR THE PAST FEW HRS. NHC HAS TASKED A RECONNAISSANCE
ACFT TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TMRW...IF NECESSARY. THE 14/18Z
NHC/HPC CONSENSUS TRACK PLACED THE SYSTEM ABT 200 NM E OF SAV THU
MRNG...ABT 80 NM E OF SAV FRI MRNG THEN MAKING LANDFALL NEAR SAPELO
ISLAND SAT MRNG...BUT WE WOULD LIKE TO STRESS THAT THERE REMAINS
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND PSN OF
THIS SYSTEM."

From the 2105 Charleston SC disco:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/displayprod.php ... =CAEAFDCHS

[Weatherfreak14]

Yep thats just right near me. Local mets say her in sav expect TS force conditions if it develops.

[O Town]

Trying to fire some convection. Its like a perfect tiny ball, anit it cute?