Invest 93L,SE Carolinas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[jdray]

Im not looking at models people. Im looking at the dynamics the models show.

The high to the north is forecast to back off a litttle.



Cripes people, GOMers want it to go there.
South Florida people seem to belive they are the TS magnet.

If Im wrong, Ill eat my crow, but you better get your taste buds ready as well...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Im not looking at models people. Im looking at the dynamics the models show.

The high to the north is forecast to back off a litttle.



Cripes people, GOMers want it to go there.
South Florida people seem to belive they are the TS magnet.

No we don't want it to come here, but based on the current situation and what I am hearing from Pro mets, it looks very possible that this will be a GOM issue.

[Stormcenter]

Its not going to move straight south/west.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... /late1.png

No model has it going south towards Sout Florida.

No model had anything forming this far south so that may be the reason.

[HouTXmetro]

Time for me to jump back onboard after Chris. So where is the center? I'm having trouble locating it.

[Damar91]

Let's see what it does to Florida first.

[gatorcane]

wow are you telling me South Florida may get a TS out of this????

[jdray]

Im not looking at models people. Im looking at the dynamics the models show.

The high to the north is forecast to back off a litttle.



Cripes people, GOMers want it to go there.
South Florida people seem to belive they are the TS magnet.

No we don't want it to come here, but based on the current situation and what I am hearing from Pro mets, it looks very possible that this will be a GOM issue.

It will be a wave/remnants by the time it makes it to the gulf.

Im waiting for George Winterling to give his inputs as this is his backyard. If he says gulf or South Florida, Ill retract and agree.
No offense to any MET here, but Ole Winterling knows more than most every will....

[SouthFloridawx]

Its not going to move straight south/west.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... /late1.png

No model has it going south towards Sout Florida.

No model had anything forming this far south so that may be the reason.

Those model runs were before a southerly component or reformation of a new center farther south towards the northern bahama Islands. Look for the models to do something a little different later on today and tonight.

[gatorcane]

Its not going to move straight south/west.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... /late1.png

No model has it going south towards Sout Florida.

No model had anything forming this far south so that may be the reason.

Those model runs were before a southerly component or reformation of a new center farther south towards the northern bahama Islands. Look for the models to do something a little different later on today and tonight.

so Florida could be under the gun - if the UL winds are favorable it could get going over the Gulf stream.

[Scorpion]

I am definitely liking the chances of this system. Perhaps in the next few days we will have Debby and Ernesto?

[mascpa]

more like central florida to NC/SC....

It wont get to Miami.

Respectfully disagree. It looks to be forming farther south than anticipated and actuall looks to be moving in that direction. We're getting a nice little blow up here on the So Fla coast from this thing.

[Air Force Met]

Its not going to move straight south/west.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... /late1.png

No model has it going south towards Sout Florida.

Look at where those models initializes the low...and 1) There is nothing but a trof there right now...the LLC is way far to the SW...and 2...that changes the entire steering flow.

[gatorcane]

more like central florida to NC/SC....

It wont get to Miami.

Respectfully disagree. It looks to be forming farther south than anticipated and actuall looks to be moving in that direction. We're getting a nice little blow up here on the So Fla coast from this thing.

Yes I just saw a wind gust of about 28 mph in a squal line from this thing that raced south through Delray Beach

[mtm4319]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

A mysterious blowup has occurred with this invest, but disappeared after only 30 minutes.

[gatorcane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

A mysterious blowup has occurred with this invest, but disappeared after only 30 minutes.

yeah I saw that, good thing that is not what is out there right now...lol

[Steve]

>>A mysterious blowup has occurred with this invest, but disappeared after only 30 minutes.

Dy-no-mat country!

Steve

[Derek Ortt]

may have a UL form over this system during the next few hours.

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_200.html

UL is centered over W Fla, and the winds seem to indicate that it may expand over the surface low

[Damar91]

may have a UL form over this system during the next few hours.

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_200.html

UL is centered over W Fla, and the winds seem to indicate that it may expand over the surface low

What would that mean?

[Sanibel]

Loose hints of mildly curving formation here. Too early to tell.

[NONAME]

What does that mean Derek