Invest 93L,SE Carolinas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[BOPPA]

This may be a strange question, but on the noon news the local Ft. Myers met said that this system would be moving further and further "away" from Fl. ??

Why would they say that, when on the board the consenus seems to be just
the opposite? Or am I reading things incorrectly.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This may be a strange question, but on the noon news the local Ft. Myers met said that this system would be moving further and further "away" from Fl. ??

Why would they say that, when on the board the consenus seems to be just
the opposite? Or am I reading things incorrectly.

they may still be looking at the old center of the invest may be? because the new one is clearly moving S or SSW.

[wjs3]

Air Force Met, you thinking this may form into TD still?

I think it has agood chance to. I also think it will be further south than where the models have initialized it...closer to the Bahamas. The upper level environment is very favorable there righ now. How long it lasts remains to be seen.

It would be nice to see some pressure falls in the area, though, don't you think?

I learn by asking, so hope you don;t mind. I see that there is upper level divergence over the area (CIMSS) and relatively low shear...what else do you (the pro) see and/or analyze to say that the upper environment is favorable here?

Thanks for your time.

[SouthFloridawx]

Starting to show up on the RAMDIS floater so we can take a closer look at it.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/282.jpg

[KatDaddy]

Definitely further S and moving SSW or S. This might just make far enough for the building ridge to push it into the E GOM. This one might actually become our next TD.

[fci]

It will be a race with 94L near the Cape Verde Islands as to which one will be a TD first.
I'm voting for 94L

[wjs3]

it still seems attached to the front, and thermodynamically, the environment is not that favorable

Maybe a weak TS will form out of this, but I cannot see anything greater unless it moves into the GOM

Derek:

I'm a little lost on what makes a thermodynamically favorable environment for a TC. For some reason, I thought that given the latent heat available (and htat all ascent would be moist...), the atmposphere had to be even just barellllyyy unstable with respect to moist ascent for something to pop. Is it not?

Maybe you could help me? We're not looking for steep lapse rates, right? Set me straight.

Thanks

[Derek Ortt]

when there is a large amount of dry air nearby, it causes the parcels to become unsaturated, as the dry entrained parcels need to be saturated. This causes the parcels to cool and sink, stabalizing the atmosphere

[Air Force Met]

it still seems attached to the front, and thermodynamically, the environment is not that favorable

Maybe a weak TS will form out of this, but I cannot see anything greater unless it moves into the GOM

That's what I'm thinking. It has to get into the GOM for it to do anything significant. The further south it forms...the better chance it has of that happening.

[tgenius]

So we're looking at a rainmaker/weak TS for South FL... considering it keeps looking like its moving southward.

[jdray]

more like central florida to NC/SC....

It wont get to Miami.

[wjs3]

when there is a large amount of dry air nearby, it causes the parcels to become unsaturated, as the dry entrained parcels need to be saturated. This causes the parcels to cool and sink, stabalizing the atmosphere

OK, so the issue is entrainment of dry air, so ascent is not going to be moist. So the atmosphere is stable with respect to dry ascent, I'm gathering?

Thanks. This helps a ton. I'll check local soundings out later.

[fwbbreeze]

more like central florida to NC/SC....

It wont get to Miami.

reasoning?

[skysummit]

more like central florida to NC/SC....

It wont get to Miami.

Don't go there so fast. The more and more it gets south, the better chance it has of reaching the Miami latitude.

[tgenius]

more like central florida to NC/SC....

It wont get to Miami.

But if it keeps shifting southward.. then the rain comes closer to South FL.. its basically right now parallel with Central FL, and the other day it looked like it was more around Jax/GA line.

[Extremeweatherguy]

more like central florida to NC/SC....

It wont get to Miami.

But if it keeps shifting southward.. then the rain comes closer to South FL.. its basically right now parallel with Central FL, and the other day it looked like it was more around Jax/GA line.

plus, at this point it looks like the northward route to NC/SC is becoming less and less likely.

[jdray]

Its not going to move straight south/west.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... /late1.png

No model has it going south towards Sout Florida.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Its not going to move straight south/west.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... /late1.png

No model has it going south towards Sout Florida.

you do realize these models are for the old center of 93L, don't you? the new center is WELL SW of this (by about 4 degrees).

[rockyman]

Its not going to move straight south/west.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... /late1.png

No model has it going south towards Sout Florida.

Center has reformed way further south and west...those models do not reflect the new center location

[skysummit]

Its not going to move straight south/west.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... /late1.png

No model has it going south towards Sout Florida.

do you realize these models are for the old center of 93L? the new center is WELL SW of this.

Correct...these models are based on an old location. The center has reformed further south. We should begin to see a change in the models later this evening...maybe with the 18z run. If not, probably by the 00z runs tonight.