Invest 93L,SE Carolinas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[sevenleft]

Did it ever occur to you that those obs are exactly the same even tho they are from different stations? Something isn't right.

[wjs3]

A couple of stations reporting that though...

http://www.wunderground.com/global/BS.html

Green Turtle Cay 86.5 °F / 30.3 °C 100% 29.60 in / 1002.3 hPa SW at 11.7 mph / 18.8 km/h 12:37 PM EDT
Kemp's Bay
Marsh Harbour 86.5 °F / 30.3 °C 100% 29.60 in / 1002.3 hPa SW at 11.7 mph / 18.8 km/h 12:37 PM EDT

Those two stations are a little too...identical...to trust, don't you think?

[SouthFloridawx]

A couple of stations reporting that though...

http://www.wunderground.com/global/BS.html

Green Turtle Cay 86.5 °F / 30.3 °C 100% 29.60 in / 1002.3 hPa SW at 11.7 mph / 18.8 km/h 12:37 PM EDT
Kemp's Bay
Marsh Harbour 86.5 °F / 30.3 °C 100% 29.60 in / 1002.3 hPa SW at 11.7 mph / 18.8 km/h 12:37 PM EDT

Those two stations are a little too...identical...to trust, don't you think?

That's what I was wondering myself. Just trying to point out there was another station reporting that.

[Air Force Met]

A couple of stations reporting that though...

http://www.wunderground.com/global/BS.html

Green Turtle Cay 86.5 °F / 30.3 °C 100% 29.60 in / 1002.3 hPa SW at 11.7 mph / 18.8 km/h 12:37 PM EDT
Kemp's Bay
Marsh Harbour 86.5 °F / 30.3 °C 100% 29.60 in / 1002.3 hPa SW at 11.7 mph / 18.8 km/h 12:37 PM EDT

Looking at the pressure readings in Nassau and G. Bahama...those pressure readings are obviously wrong low by about .4 inches.

Very bad.

[rockyman]

Those are "personal weather stations"...and they are always wrong (at least they were during the last Bahamas event).

[StormsAhead]

A couple of stations reporting that though...

http://www.wunderground.com/global/BS.html

Green Turtle Cay 86.5 °F / 30.3 °C 100% 29.60 in / 1002.3 hPa SW at 11.7 mph / 18.8 km/h 12:37 PM EDT
Kemp's Bay
Marsh Harbour 86.5 °F / 30.3 °C 100% 29.60 in / 1002.3 hPa SW at 11.7 mph / 18.8 km/h 12:37 PM EDT

Those two stations are a little too...identical...to trust, don't you think?

That's because the observations for both of those locations come from the same station. The reports are from Foots Cay, Abaco, Bahamas, which is a personal weather station.

[tgenius]

A couple of stations reporting that though...

http://www.wunderground.com/global/BS.html

Green Turtle Cay 86.5 °F / 30.3 °C 100% 29.60 in / 1002.3 hPa SW at 11.7 mph / 18.8 km/h 12:37 PM EDT
Kemp's Bay
Marsh Harbour 86.5 °F / 30.3 °C 100% 29.60 in / 1002.3 hPa SW at 11.7 mph / 18.8 km/h 12:37 PM EDT

Looking at the pressure readings in Nassau and G. Bahama...those pressure readings are obviously wrong low by about .4 inches.

Very bad.

Air Force Met, you thinking this may form into TD still?

[fwbbreeze]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MYGF.html

http://www.bahamas.com/bahamas/weatherd ... sland=gran

http://www.bahamas.com/bahamas/weatherd ... sland=bimi

Here are a few reporting stations with west winds!

fwbbreeze

[Air Force Met]

A couple of stations reporting that though...

http://www.wunderground.com/global/BS.html

Green Turtle Cay 86.5 °F / 30.3 °C 100% 29.60 in / 1002.3 hPa SW at 11.7 mph / 18.8 km/h 12:37 PM EDT
Kemp's Bay
Marsh Harbour 86.5 °F / 30.3 °C 100% 29.60 in / 1002.3 hPa SW at 11.7 mph / 18.8 km/h 12:37 PM EDT

Those two stations are a little too...identical...to trust, don't you think?

That's what I was wondering myself. Just trying to point out there was another station reporting that.

Something isn't right there...but I can tell you that there is no way the pressure readings are right. There's no way there is a 14 mb pressure gradient over a distance of 60-70 miles. That is a pressure gradient found in strong tropical storms and weak hurricanes.

[KatDaddy]

From looking at the latest Bouy Obs I think we have a surface circulation

Settlement Point GBI - WNW - 8ktsG11kts

Lake Worth, FLA - N - 14ktsG22kts

20 E of Cape Canaveral, FLA - NNE 11.7ktsG13.6kts

120 E of Cape Canaveral, FLA - ENE - 15.5ktsG19.4kts

All we need is a ship report of a S or SE wind to confirm a LL surface windfield does exist.

[Air Force Met]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MYGF.html

http://www.bahamas.com/bahamas/weatherd ... sland=gran

http://www.bahamas.com/bahamas/weatherd ... sland=bimi

Here are a few reporting stations with west winds!

fwbbreeze

No doubt about the west winds...you can see the LLC on the sat loop:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... uality=100

[wjs3]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MYGF.html

http://www.bahamas.com/bahamas/weatherd ... sland=gran

http://www.bahamas.com/bahamas/weatherd ... sland=bimi

Here are a few reporting stations with west winds!

fwbbreeze

These are great. Thanks.

Would others agree that we have a closed circulation, albeit a weak one, here? Does that analysis make sense?

[Air Force Met]

Thanks all, so we do have a west surface wind.

Nassau pressure is 1016 (!) from site cycloneye linked to above.

AFM, I tried to get ship obs from the NDBC--within 500 NM of 26 N 77 W in the last 6 hours and got nothing.

Can you share where you got yours?

AFM, of course not only would the satellite presentation be dfferent, but windspeeds would be way, way higher, I think, if that 1002 was real.

Yes....that is the pressure gradient (with 1016mb being only 70 nm away) found in strong Ts/weak hurricanes).

I found the ship report on the search site...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... t=A&time=1

[sevenleft]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MYGF.html

http://www.bahamas.com/bahamas/weatherd ... sland=gran

http://www.bahamas.com/bahamas/weatherd ... sland=bimi

Here are a few reporting stations with west winds!

fwbbreeze

No doubt about the west winds...you can see the LLC on the sat loop:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... uality=100

Looks a bit elongated W-E. Doesn't look like its ready to take charge and develop just yet.

[Damar91]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MYGF.html

http://www.bahamas.com/bahamas/weatherd ... sland=gran

http://www.bahamas.com/bahamas/weatherd ... sland=bimi

Here are a few reporting stations with west winds!

fwbbreeze

These are great. Thanks.

Would others agree that we have a closed circulation, albeit a weak one, here? Does that analysis make sense?

Yes, I would, and it seems to have convection firing pretty nicely around the area of that closed circulation.

[Air Force Met]

Air Force Met, you thinking this may form into TD still?

I think it has agood chance to. I also think it will be further south than where the models have initialized it...closer to the Bahamas. The upper level environment is very favorable there righ now. How long it lasts remains to be seen.

[tgenius]

Yeah it sure looks like it, I see sorta the same path that Katrina took when it crossed the state (albeit I think this may be 100 miles north of Miami unless it maintains that SW motion it looks to be doing on visable.)

[Damar91]

Any thought on when the ridge would start pushing this system towards the west?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Air Force Met, you thinking this may form into TD still?

I think it has agood chance to. I also think it will be further south than where the models have initialized it...closer to the Bahamas. The upper level environment is very favorable there righ now. How long it lasts remains to be seen.

what's your idea on future path? Do you think this will head west into the GOM like the Houston NWS is saying, or do you think this is Carolina/East coast bound?

[Derek Ortt]

it still seems attached to the front, and thermodynamically, the environment is not that favorable

Maybe a weak TS will form out of this, but I cannot see anything greater unless it moves into the GOM