Invest 93L,SE Carolinas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Weatherfreak14]

I live here in Beaufort, SC 60mi south of Charleston, and boy do i need to watch this or what. Plus I feel sorry for your loss in the family as 1 week ago I lost my Grandma.

[wjs3]

Does anyone have a link to Bahamas obs? Visible certainly seems to show a closed low level circ--and North winds on Fla East coast look consistent with that too. Are there any west winds in the Bahamas, though?

Thanks

[Weatherfreak14]

It looks right now that we will see a depression here in the next 24hrs. This keeps getting more organized http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[shaggy]

marsh harbour and several other places all show WSW winds and pressures at 1002mb but winds are only at 14 mphs so not to bad yet

[curtadams]

On RGB there's a vigorous closed low cloud circulation just N of the current convective burst. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-rgb.html This is a great candidate for a popup storm. The extraordinarily dry air to the north might kill it, but it looks like the lower level circ has reached moist air.

[tgenius]

Wow.. I hadn't seen 93L in a few days, it looks much closer to central FL then North FL.. or are my eyes playing tricks on me?

[Johnny]

Uh oh!! AFM is starting to chime in. I guess it's time to pay attention!!!

[jasons2k]

Just a random thought.... Been looking at the Bahamas radar and the long range radars from Melbourne and Miami....and as I was doing so I thought to myself 'this is eerily too familiar from doing this almost exactly a year ago - twice.'

[Damar91]

Just a random thought.... Been looking at the Bahamas radar and the long range radars from Melbourne and Miami....and as I was doing so I thought to myself 'this is eerily too familiar from doing this almost exactly a year ago - twice.'

Yeah, I know what you mean.

[wjs3]

marsh harbour and several other places all show WSW winds and pressures at 1002mb but winds are only at 14 mphs so not to bad yet

Can you tell me where to go to finds these obs?

Thanks!

[shaggy]

marsh harbour and several other places all show WSW winds and pressures at 1002mb but winds are only at 14 mphs so not to bad yet

Can you tell me where to go to finds these obs?

Thanks!

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78065.html

[Air Force Met]

marsh harbour and several other places all show WSW winds and pressures at 1002mb but winds are only at 14 mphs so not to bad yet

Can you tell me where to go to finds these obs?

Thanks!

1002 mb? You sure you don't mean 1012? If not...I would say it's a bad ob pressure wise.

[wjs3]

marsh harbour and several other places all show WSW winds and pressures at 1002mb but winds are only at 14 mphs so not to bad yet

Can you tell me where to go to finds these obs?

Thanks!

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78065.html

Thank you.

Gotta agree. 1002 seems "funny".

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/ukmet.txt


817
WTNT80 EGRR 140525
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.08.2006
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 28.6N 77.9W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 15.08.2006 28.6N 77.9W WEAK

12UTC 15.08.2006 28.8N 77.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 16.08.2006 29.7N 77.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 16.08.2006 30.8N 79.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 17.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
HIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT
MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
TOO 140525


[EDR1222]

It appears by the visible loop, that the low level center is just north of the northern bahamas and maybe moving SE a little bit. Hard to tell for sure from my untrained eyes.

[Air Force Met]

marsh harbour and several other places all show WSW winds and pressures at 1002mb but winds are only at 14 mphs so not to bad yet

Can you tell me where to go to finds these obs?

Thanks!

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78065.html

Thank you.

Gotta agree. 1002 seems "funny".

I just checked some ships in the area...they are around 1015 or so. PBI is 1015. Their pressure is hosed. No way there is a 1002 mb low there among that kind of high pressure. The sat presentation would be totally different.

[fci]

marsh harbour and several other places all show WSW winds and pressures at 1002mb but winds are only at 14 mphs so not to bad yet

Can you tell me where to go to finds these obs?

Thanks!

1002 mb? You sure you don't mean 1012? If not...I would say it's a bad ob pressure wise.

Ob does say 1002.
Will have to see what the next reading shows.
1002 is pretty low.

[cycloneye]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MYNN.html

West wind at Nassau.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MYGF.html

And Grand Bahama.

[SouthFloridawx]

A couple of stations reporting that though...

http://www.wunderground.com/global/BS.html

Green Turtle Cay 86.5 °F / 30.3 °C 100% 29.60 in / 1002.3 hPa SW at 11.7 mph / 18.8 km/h 12:37 PM EDT
Kemp's Bay
Marsh Harbour 86.5 °F / 30.3 °C 100% 29.60 in / 1002.3 hPa SW at 11.7 mph / 18.8 km/h 12:37 PM EDT

[wjs3]

Thanks all, so we do have a west surface wind.

Nassau pressure is 1016 (!) from site cycloneye linked to above.

AFM, I tried to get ship obs from the NDBC--within 500 NM of 26 N 77 W in the last 6 hours and got nothing.

Can you share where you got yours?

AFM, of course not only would the satellite presentation be dfferent, but windspeeds would be way, way higher, I think, if that 1002 was real.