Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Ex 94L)

[ConvergenceZone]

there is a very large island chain that this will hit TOMORROW

The Cape Verde Islands, are ISLANDS

well, hopefully they will just get some rain from it, like all the other countless waves that move off Africa. I highly doubt it will be developed into anything by tomorrow, and besides, you know how convection is these days..., here today, gone tomorrow....

[Derek Ortt]

this may be a TD already, assuming that there is a closed surface circulation.

Now, will it weaken, possibly

[SouthFloridawx]

This looks like it is organizing pretty quickly today. I wonder what kind of low level circulation we got under there.

[Lowpressure]

there is a very large island chain that this will hit TOMORROW

The Cape Verde Islands, are ISLANDS

well, hopefully they will just get some rain from it, like all the other countless waves that move off Africa. I highly doubt it will be developed into anything by tomorrow, and besides, you know how convection is these days..., here today, gone tomorrow....

11:30 stated winds gusting to near 50mph already. This may already be a depression. When is the next quicksat pass? It looks real good right now on sat.

[x-y-no]

the last significant storm to hti the CV Islands killed more than 100 people. Thus, THIS IS NO FISH

Well, that's a point. If it develops significantly before getting to the CVs and then impacts them, that could be a serious matter. By no means did I intend to minimize that.

Rather, I was anticipating somewhat later development and then recurvature out to sea.

[Thunder44]

the last significant storm to hti the CV Islands killed more than 100 people. Thus, THIS IS NO FISH

Derek this may be news to you but it's too most people a fish if it doesn't hit the US Mainland or the Carribean Islands.

[SouthFloridawx]

A pretty cool view of this wave.

http://img105.imageshack.us/img105/9910/goes14452006226iwbv0glo4.jpg

[CrazyC83]

It has more water ahead of it than any storm in recent memory. I'd say this has an 80% chance of development, and could very well be a major storm down the road.

[x-y-no]

the last significant storm to hti the CV Islands killed more than 100 people. Thus, THIS IS NO FISH

Derek this may be news to you but it's too most people a fish if it doesn't hit the US Mainland or the Carribean Islands.

Well, that's not the way I count things. See above.

I just had'nt looked particularly thoroughly at this yet and didn't consider the possibility that it could be a serious storm at the time it hits the CV islands.

[cycloneye]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GVAC.html

Cape Verde observations above.Nothing in the winds yet showing strong readings.Let's watch this thru the day and tonight.

[Derek Ortt]

I believe its the flooding that would be of greatest concern since those islands are mountainous

[ConvergenceZone]

this may be a TD already, assuming that there is a closed surface circulation.

Now, will it weaken, possibly

well, let's have it clear the CV islands first, THEN it can blow up to a major CAT5 monster and turn North and go fishing, then I'll finally have a nice storm to track... . I think that's all everyone wants, something to track as long as it's not at the expense of any lives/property.

[SouthFloridawx]

Looking at the models there seems to be a good consensus that there will not be a weakness in the ridge after 3-4 days.


As this system can move WNW to NW in the short term we may see a more westward movement in days 4-5. Which we do not want to see happen.

As the ridge builds Eastward we will eventually see a more westward component depending on the strength of it.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

[StormsAhead]

40 knots reported in Banjul, Gambia at 12z:
METAR GBYD 141200Z 06040KT 9000 -RA FEWO11 FEW018CB BKN100 24/24 Q1012

[Thunder44]

I actually hope this doesn't named first. Because then that would mean our 93L would probably "Ernesto".

[cycloneye]

I actually hope this doesn't named first. Because then that would mean our 93L would probably "Ernesto".

Thunder,you dont like the name Ernesto?

[ConvergenceZone]

Looking at the models there seems to be a good consensus that there will not be a weakness in the ridge after 3-4 days.


As this system can move WNW to NW in the short term we may see a more westward movement in days 4-5. Which we do not want to see happen.

As the ridge builds Eastward we will eventually see a more westward component depending on the strength of it.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

I really hope you are wrong, because then I can't cheer for development....Only want to see development if it's going to go fishing, otherwise, then I hope shear and dry air gets the best of it, somewhere along the path, but I'd prefer to see it develop and turn north...

Have they ever declared a storm a depression that close to the Africa cloast? I"m curious...

thanx in advance!
Dusty

[AnnularCane]

Looking at the models there seems to be a good consensus that there will not be a weakness in the ridge after 3-4 days.


As this system can move WNW to NW in the short term we may see a more westward movement in days 4-5. Which we do not want to see happen.

As the ridge builds Eastward we will eventually see a more westward component depending on the strength of it.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

I knew somebody was going to say this eventually. Why do these darn ridges always have to build in and keep them from heading out to sea?

[tgenius]

Is there a chance that this gets updated without Recon via Sat Imagery? It sure looks pretty full already.

[MiamiensisWx]

40KT sustained winds have just been reported in the vicinity of Banjul in Gambia.