Invest 93L,SE Carolinas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Extremeweatherguy]

Eventually this baby should be kicked on North, or even Northeastward in the long term. Due to a couple of fronts coming in from the West around the mean Trough late in the period. No one knows for sure however, should be an interesting one to watch that much is certain though.

The Houston NWS says this is coming toward TX and will bring rain late in the week, so it must not be going north for awhile (if at all).

From the Houston NWS disco:

MEANWHILE A MID/UPPER LOW IS DEVELOPED EAST
OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVES WEST ACROSS THE GULF
UNDERNEATH THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

To me it seems that all from Fla to NC need to watch (just for interest so far).

I couldn't agree more.

[Stratosphere747]

Each area discos give a hint that whatever this mess is may be going in their direction. Just because Houston mentioned it does not mean it is etched in stone.

Read Corpus' disco as they are far better in explaining long-term tendencies, and they make mention of a few models showing a easterly wave moving this direction, nothing more.

No reason to disagree with someone beacuse their area's disco mentions other possiblites.

[sevenleft]

I was goign to post something similar to what 747 did. With systems like this, where the fate is 100% up in the air, all the potentially affected WFOs will act like it is coming to them until things become more certain.

[cycloneye]

NOUS42 KNHC 141530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT MON 14 AUG 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z AUG 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-076

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (E OF FL COAST)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 15/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 15/1500Z
D. 28.0N 77.5W
E. 15/1730Z TO 15/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 16/1800Z
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPES AND IS A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING ON SUSPECT AREA NEAR LESSER ANTILLES
CANCELLED BY NHC AT 14/1130Z.

[Lowpressure]

Interesting how local weather offices from Houston to the OBX say this MAY affect the weather later this week. I do not see this as a Texas issue.

[storms in NC]

Interesting how local weather offices from Houston to the OBX say this MAY affect the weather later this week. I do not see this as a Texas issue.

I don't either. But it is weird how so many have this going everywhere Just read though all the post here.

[rockyman]

As the center moves south, it's getting closer and closer to moving under that new blob of convection...in fact, the center on visible appears to be partially under that blob right now...if this thing is going to take off, it's already on the runway.

[Lowpressure]

Interesting how local weather offices from Houston to the OBX say this MAY affect the weather later this week. I do not see this as a Texas issue.

I don't either. But it is weird how so many have this going everywhere Just read though all the post here.

IF it develops, it will have come from the tail end of a frontal system. More often than not, these things dabble around the Georgia coast, scrape the OBX, then head out to sea. I find it amusing that East Coast offices say they are not sure, but Houston mentions it as almost firm to enter the Western Gulf, they must be looking at something no office on the East Coast sees at this point.

[shaggy]

the GFDL did a good job on chris with storm motion but not so good on intensity.GFDL shows this feature moving into the SC/NC border and turning west so we just have to watch and wait to see how much or even if it develops.

[Stormcenter]

Until this develops (if it does and it looks that way) everyone should keep an eye open especially now when we are getting to the ripe type of the season for development of major storms.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

Interesting how local weather offices from Houston to the OBX say this MAY affect the weather later this week. I do not see this as a Texas issue.

I don't either. But it is weird how so many have this going everywhere Just read though all the post here.

IF it develops, it will have come from the tail end of a frontal system. More often than not, these things dabble around the Georgia coast, scrape the OBX, then head out to sea. I find it amusing that East Coast offices say they are not sure, but Houston mentions it as almost firm to enter the Western Gulf, they must be looking at something no office on the East Coast sees at this point.

Most of our TV mets have been saying that this could come our way too. I guess it is just a wait and see situation. I would like the rain though.

[storms in NC]

You can see on the loop that it is starting to wrap around.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I will be gone to Dillon SC today. My son inlaw granddad passed away. So I'll be back tonight. See how things look then.

[SouthFloridawx]

You can see on the loop that it is starting to wrap around.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I will be gone to Dillon SC today. My son inlaw granddad passed away. So I'll be back tonight. See how things look then.

Sorry to hear that and good luck with everything today.

[shaggy]

Most of our TV mets have been saying that this could come our way too. I guess it is just a wait and see situation. I would like the rain though.

seems to me that any time theres a storm that any news station near the ocean or gulf mention the "possible" affects on their area.We saw this many times last year when the storms were obviously not coming here.

[Air Force Met]

the GFDL did a good job on chris with storm motion but not so good on intensity.GFDL shows this feature moving into the SC/NC border and turning west so we just have to watch and wait to see how much or even if it develops.

Not really. It was constantly pushing it over Hispaniola and into the Caribbean. It was HORRIBLE with track and intensity. It was actually one of the worst as far as track goes.

See for yourself.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... 080118.png

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... 080206.png

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... 080218.png

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... 080306.png

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... 080318.png

[frederic79]

The last two visible frames show a rather strong burst of convection occurring in the southernmost part of the llc north of the Grand Bahama. Start of something?

[MGC]

I see a couple of options if this system developes. First, it could hang around and then move N as the blocking high to its north moves east. Or, the blocking high to its north moves a little more south and east and pushes the system into Florida. Currently I am thinking the latter solution is the better option. This system has a chance to become a TD. There is a lot of dry air to its north though. Shear don't seem to be a big issue.....MGC

[Air Force Met]

You can see on the loop that it is starting to wrap around.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I will be gone to Dillon SC today. My son inlaw granddad passed away. So I'll be back tonight. See how things look then.

Sorry to here about the loss in the family. Here is a better loop to help cheer things up (warning...high speed connection required):

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... uality=100

[CrazyC83]

I'd give this a 30% chance of development. Environment is chaotic compared to 94L's and it will have a harder time.