global forecast models

[willjnewton]

is everything as of right now getting a lot more favorable in the atlantic basin like the shear is weakening and so on???and what does the latest global forecast models indicate in the next 10 days???like what does the gfs and ecmwf and nam and so on predict in the next 10 days???someone please explain thanks

[Frank2]

Right now the 10-day GFS is indicating that the subtropical ridge will be moving eastward over the next week or so, with a substantial trough remaining stationary later in the run, and, in fact building souteastward, off the northeast coast of the U.S., so, anything that does form is more likely (unless it's of a very low latititude) to recurve before reaching North America.

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

Frank

[willjnewton]

what is the global forecast models doing with 92L east of florida, anyone???

[Frank2]

I'll guess and say not much - the area has largely dissipated since yesterday...

Frank

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Right now the 10-day GFS is indicating that the subtropical ridge will be moving eastward over the next week or so, with a substantial trough remaining stationary later in the run, and, in fact building souteastward, off the northeast coast of the U.S., so, anything that does form is more likely (unless it's of a very low latititude) to recurve before reaching North America.

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

Frank

Very good summary Frank. Though there is always a chance that the Ridge could be a little further East, or the Trough a little further West. As such the storm could still brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina, or even ride just offshore and perhaps impact the Cape Cod/Eastern New England area. As such I'm KEEPING A VERY CLSE EYE ON ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS.

[Steve]

The ones I looked at today seem to want to close something off and hit NC/SC. I didn't check the height level of the circulation, but obviously when you have a 4 model consensus of something hitting the US Coast this week, it's worth noting if nothing else.

You may now lock this thread.

Steve

[willjnewton]

hey steve why can't we keep this threaD open so I will NOT make a new one so can we keep it open???and the other thing is steve that so you are saying that you know for sure of the latest forecast models you checked at does saw something hitting the nc coast correct???

[Steve]

You run 'em and tell me what you think.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Doesn't look like anything vicious, but you can see the isobars closing off in several of the global runs (intermediate range).

You can keep it open, I just figured I'd save you the trouble of requesting it be locked.

After you view the models and run them at whatever heights you want to, why don't you post what you think you see and some of the experts can tell you what you're looking at.



Steve

[Frank2]

You're welcome, Hybridstorm - always eager to help my friends to the north...

Frank