Invest 93L,SE Carolinas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1131
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:53 pm
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006
A BROAD NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST. ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY
ORGANIZED...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006
A BROAD NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST. ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY
ORGANIZED...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
0 likes
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7392
- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 671
- Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2006 4:37 pm
- Location: Spring Hill Fl.
It almost looks like it's trying to clear out an eye.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=15&palette=ir.pal
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=15&palette=ir.pal
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 23019
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Stormavoider wrote:It almost looks like it's trying to clear out an eye.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=15&palette=ir.pal
Typically, the eye tends to form somewhat after an LLC develops. However, as I that image, perhaps you're right! But I see two eyes, two ears, and a nose!

0 likes
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 671
- Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2006 4:37 pm
- Location: Spring Hill Fl.
- all_we_know_is_FALLING
- Category 1
- Posts: 417
- Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:06 pm
- Location: Somewhere over the rainbow...
- Contact:
- southerngale
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 27418
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
- Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)
Are they talking about this wave?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
236 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006
THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND RE-TREAT BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE...LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD AS THE
FORECAST AREA MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
236 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006
THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND RE-TREAT BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE...LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD AS THE
FORECAST AREA MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDLCH
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1750
- Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
- Location: Nags Head, NC
- Contact:
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146177
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L
INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 13
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 29.9 76.6 115./ 9.9
6 29.3 76.3 155./ 6.5
12 29.3 76.0 90./ 3.0
18 29.4 75.7 68./ 2.1
24 29.9 75.7 6./ 4.4
30 30.3 75.8 343./ 4.7
36 31.0 76.1 339./ 7.7
42 31.8 76.4 338./ 7.9
48 32.5 76.6 349./ 7.1
54 33.0 76.9 328./ 5.6
60 33.3 77.0 343./ 3.4
66 33.5 77.1 313./ 1.7
72 33.6 77.3 318./ 2.2
78 33.4 77.9 249./ 5.8
84 33.1 78.6 245./ 6.7
90 32.7 79.2 237./ 5.9
96 32.2 80.3 246./10.7
STORM DISSIPATED AT 96 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
18z GFDL run for 93L.
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L
INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 13
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 29.9 76.6 115./ 9.9
6 29.3 76.3 155./ 6.5
12 29.3 76.0 90./ 3.0
18 29.4 75.7 68./ 2.1
24 29.9 75.7 6./ 4.4
30 30.3 75.8 343./ 4.7
36 31.0 76.1 339./ 7.7
42 31.8 76.4 338./ 7.9
48 32.5 76.6 349./ 7.1
54 33.0 76.9 328./ 5.6
60 33.3 77.0 343./ 3.4
66 33.5 77.1 313./ 1.7
72 33.6 77.3 318./ 2.2
78 33.4 77.9 249./ 5.8
84 33.1 78.6 245./ 6.7
90 32.7 79.2 237./ 5.9
96 32.2 80.3 246./10.7
STORM DISSIPATED AT 96 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
18z GFDL run for 93L.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Weatherfreak14
- Category 5
- Posts: 1383
- Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
- Location: Beaufort, SC
- Contact:
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 132
- Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 5:15 pm
- Location: Orange Park, Fla
Weatherfreak14 wrote:GFDL model has it moving towards NC the switch it to moving SW along the SC coast.
Very close to the 12z scenerio, so where will this system off the AHEM CAROLINAS go, what part of the CAROLINAS will it hit? Or will it go harmlessly out to sea? Only two possible outcomes. Well, it could just go poof and not develop as well.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1131
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:53 pm
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060814 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060814 0000 060814 1200 060815 0000 060815 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.8N 76.2W 28.7N 76.4W 28.9N 77.2W 29.6N 78.3W
BAMM 28.8N 76.2W 28.8N 76.4W 29.2N 77.0W 29.9N 77.8W
A98E 28.8N 76.2W 28.6N 75.9W 28.7N 75.6W 28.8N 76.0W
LBAR 28.8N 76.2W 28.4N 75.9W 28.9N 75.7W 29.8N 75.8W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 34KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060816 0000 060817 0000 060818 0000 060819 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.2N 79.3W 30.9N 81.5W 31.0N 84.9W 31.6N 88.9W
BAMM 30.7N 78.5W 31.7N 80.1W 32.1N 82.7W 32.8N 86.0W
A98E 29.7N 76.3W 30.2N 77.1W 30.5N 78.6W 29.1N 80.4W
LBAR 30.9N 75.7W 33.0N 74.8W 36.2N 71.6W 39.8N 68.1W
SHIP 39KTS 47KTS 48KTS 44KTS
DSHP 39KTS 47KTS 32KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.8N LONCUR = 76.2W DIRCUR = 135DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 30.5N LONM12 = 77.7W DIRM12 = 127DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 31.5N LONM24 = 79.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060814 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060814 0000 060814 1200 060815 0000 060815 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.8N 76.2W 28.7N 76.4W 28.9N 77.2W 29.6N 78.3W
BAMM 28.8N 76.2W 28.8N 76.4W 29.2N 77.0W 29.9N 77.8W
A98E 28.8N 76.2W 28.6N 75.9W 28.7N 75.6W 28.8N 76.0W
LBAR 28.8N 76.2W 28.4N 75.9W 28.9N 75.7W 29.8N 75.8W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 34KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060816 0000 060817 0000 060818 0000 060819 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.2N 79.3W 30.9N 81.5W 31.0N 84.9W 31.6N 88.9W
BAMM 30.7N 78.5W 31.7N 80.1W 32.1N 82.7W 32.8N 86.0W
A98E 29.7N 76.3W 30.2N 77.1W 30.5N 78.6W 29.1N 80.4W
LBAR 30.9N 75.7W 33.0N 74.8W 36.2N 71.6W 39.8N 68.1W
SHIP 39KTS 47KTS 48KTS 44KTS
DSHP 39KTS 47KTS 32KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.8N LONCUR = 76.2W DIRCUR = 135DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 30.5N LONM12 = 77.7W DIRM12 = 127DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 31.5N LONM24 = 79.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
0 likes
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 132
- Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 5:15 pm
- Location: Orange Park, Fla
If I had to pick an area of possible TC formation, I would guess around 28N, 77W and moving south,,. agree?
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6358
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
- Location: Miramar Bch. FL
the_winds_that_sheared_me wrote:If I had to pick an area of possible TC formation, I would guess around 28N, 77W and moving south,,. agree?
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html
As good as anyones guess at this point, but it looks very close. Could be more Neast near 29n 76.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Cpv17, gib, Google Adsense [Bot], Hurricaneman, islandgirl45, Killjoy12, MarioProtVI, Miami Storm Tracker, NingNing and 45 guests