Invest 93L,SE Carolinas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[KatDaddy]

Jeff Master's chimes in at his WeatherUnderground Blog:

Heavy thunderstorms are on the increase in the waters east of Florida this morning along an old cold front that pushed off the coast. Wind shear is 10 knots along this old front, and is forecast to remain 10 knots or lower through Tuesday. This is low enough to allow some development to occur, and we'll have to watch this area closely. Most of the computer models are forecasting that something will develop along the front, as early as Monday. The models are very uncertain about where such a development might go. If something develops relatively close to Florida, the preferred track appears to be across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. A more northerly track towards the Carolinas is also one of the model solutions. If something develops further from Florida, the preferred track is northeastward towards Bermuda. We'll just have to wait and see where the focus of development may be along the old front.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

This is comical

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006

.SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA (FA) WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/CONVERGENT ZONE JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS WITH A LITTLE TAIL OVER CUMBERLAND ISLAND.
THAT CONVECTION IS DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND MAY IMPINGE ON THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATER THIS EVENING.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA THE WEDGE/LOCAL NORTHEASTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN. WITH THAT PATTERN EXPECT TO SEE THE CONVECTION BE MOST
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AND ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. MOST OF WHAT WE SEE COME IN OFF THE
ATLANTIC WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE HIT OR MISS SHOWERS
(THROUGH TUESDAY). WILL KEEP 20 PERCENT POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

.LONG TERM...FOR YET ANOTHER DAY THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST ARE DEPENDANT UPON WHAT MIGHT...OR MIGHT NOT...FORM OFF
THE FLORIDA COAST AND IF IT DOES WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE IT MIGHT...
OR MIGHT NOT...HAVE AND THEN AFTER THAT IF IT DOES...OR DOES
NOT...APPROACH THE COAST AND OH YEAH IF YOU DON'T LIKE THIS
PARTICULAR MODEL RUN WAIT FOR ANOTHER ONE AND IT WILL CHANGE (AND
YES THAT WAS A DELIBERATE RUN ON SENTENCE!). MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
MAP ABOUT WHAT MAY TRANSPIRE OFF THE COAST THIS WEEK WITH THE NAM
SERIES BRINGING A LOW TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA EAST COAST...GFS MOVING
IT TOWARD THE COAST THEN NORTHWARD OFFSHORE AND NOGAPS HAS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WITH A WEAK LOW
FORMING OVER THE PENINSULA. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT SOMETHING...LIKE A
HYBRID SYSTEM...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EAST OF THE CAPE AND NORTHEAST
OF THE BAHAMAS AND SIT FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE IT MAKES UP ITS MIND
WHAT TO DO. SO THAT IS HOW I WILL PLAY THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHER
WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
WEDGE/NORTHEASTER AND THE HYBRID LOW. ALSO WILL INDICATE SOME
SHOWERS COMING IN OFF THE OCEAN AND INTO THE COASTAL AREAS ON
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT ACTUALLY DEVELOPS
OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND IF SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OCCURS
WILL HAVE TO REVISE THE EXTENDED WITH FUTURE PACKAGES.

[shaggy]

this is from NWS from morehead city NC.Seems to think a surface feature
is going to come up from our south not sure if the low makes it here before being pushed by the fron but only time will tell


PRECIP BACK IN THE PICTURE AS SFC LOW OFF OF SC BGINS MOVING
NORTH WHILE FRONT APPROACHES NC FROM NW. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON
WED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS LATE THU
THROUGH SUN. HPC GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT.

[JonathanBelles]

This is comical

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006

.SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA (FA) WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/CONVERGENT ZONE JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS WITH A LITTLE TAIL OVER CUMBERLAND ISLAND.
THAT CONVECTION IS DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND MAY IMPINGE ON THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATER THIS EVENING.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA THE WEDGE/LOCAL NORTHEASTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN. WITH THAT PATTERN EXPECT TO SEE THE CONVECTION BE MOST
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AND ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. MOST OF WHAT WE SEE COME IN OFF THE
ATLANTIC WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE HIT OR MISS SHOWERS
(THROUGH TUESDAY). WILL KEEP 20 PERCENT POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

.LONG TERM...FOR YET ANOTHER DAY THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST ARE DEPENDANT UPON WHAT MIGHT...OR MIGHT NOT...FORM OFF
THE FLORIDA COAST AND IF IT DOES WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE IT MIGHT...
OR MIGHT NOT...HAVE AND THEN AFTER THAT IF IT DOES...OR DOES
NOT...APPROACH THE COAST AND OH YEAH IF YOU DON'T LIKE THIS
PARTICULAR MODEL RUN WAIT FOR ANOTHER ONE AND IT WILL CHANGE (AND
YES THAT WAS A DELIBERATE RUN ON SENTENCE!). MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
MAP ABOUT WHAT MAY TRANSPIRE OFF THE COAST THIS WEEK WITH THE NAM
SERIES BRINGING A LOW TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA EAST COAST...GFS MOVING
IT TOWARD THE COAST THEN NORTHWARD OFFSHORE AND NOGAPS HAS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WITH A WEAK LOW
FORMING OVER THE PENINSULA. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT SOMETHING...LIKE A
HYBRID SYSTEM...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EAST OF THE CAPE AND NORTHEAST
OF THE BAHAMAS AND SIT FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE IT MAKES UP ITS MIND
WHAT TO DO. SO THAT IS HOW I WILL PLAY THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHER
WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
WEDGE/NORTHEASTER AND THE HYBRID LOW. ALSO WILL INDICATE SOME
SHOWERS COMING IN OFF THE OCEAN AND INTO THE COASTAL AREAS ON
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT ACTUALLY DEVELOPS
OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND IF SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OCCURS
WILL HAVE TO REVISE THE EXTENDED WITH FUTURE PACKAGES.

i could have wrote that lol!

[KatDaddy]

LOL! That sarcastic frustration.

[Nimbus]

Convection looks like it is starting to wrap a little more symmetrically right on the 30N latitude line. If a clear low level center develops tonight the models should get a better handle on where it is headed.

[SouthFloridawx]

Model summary,

I suspect they don't have a very good handle on it but, I would say probably slow movement over the next few days.

http://img522.imageshack.us/img522/1493 ... 12zex2.png

http://img522.imageshack.us/img522/4196 ... 12zcq3.png

http://img522.imageshack.us/img522/2182 ... 12zsa0.png

http://img522.imageshack.us/img522/3978 ... 12zum8.png

http://img522.imageshack.us/img522/1193 ... 12zer7.png


*edited by staff to make the large images into links...so that everyone doesn't have to scroll to read each line on the page

[SouthFloridawx]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
For anyone who doesn't have the link ... this is where I got the model output graphics.

EDIT:

If this thing is going to have a chance it has to move south.

It also has to stay in between the Trough and the ULL.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

[wxman57]

This system does look like it has more potential to develop an LLC than 92L. However, I'm not so sure that the shear will remain 10kts or less through Tuesday. At least the GFS shows 35-45 kt SE winds at 200mb over the top of the disturbance as early as tomorrow night. See image below. The GFS indicates a fairly strong upper low over NE Florida by then. Such lows can actually help a system to develop if the upper winds aren't too strong. But conditions wouldn't be good for much strengthening. Sheared, weak tropical storms often result from such interactions. The threat to the southeast U.S. would be from heavy rain, not wind.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93L.gif

[Nimbus]

Short term the NHC said they thought it would drift south after it cut off. The future track depends (among other things) on whether the low gets dragged east of 75 or not.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

Uh.... I wanna say it was ch. 13..I was watching the texans game last night and was too lazy to get up and turn the tv... .David Tillman... I think... Whatever channel the Texans were on is what channel it was on... lol... was that any help??? lol...


BTW-- the Texans won last night!!!! 24-14!!!

It was David Tillman, Ch. 13 last night. them and Neil Frank at Ch.11 is about the only ones I watch for weather here in the houston area.
Go Texans and 'Stros!

[Brent]

This is comical

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006

.SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA (FA) WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/CONVERGENT ZONE JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS WITH A LITTLE TAIL OVER CUMBERLAND ISLAND.
THAT CONVECTION IS DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND MAY IMPINGE ON THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATER THIS EVENING.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA THE WEDGE/LOCAL NORTHEASTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN. WITH THAT PATTERN EXPECT TO SEE THE CONVECTION BE MOST
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AND ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. MOST OF WHAT WE SEE COME IN OFF THE
ATLANTIC WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE HIT OR MISS SHOWERS
(THROUGH TUESDAY). WILL KEEP 20 PERCENT POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

.LONG TERM...FOR YET ANOTHER DAY THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST ARE DEPENDANT UPON WHAT MIGHT...OR MIGHT NOT...FORM OFF
THE FLORIDA COAST AND IF IT DOES WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE IT MIGHT...
OR MIGHT NOT...HAVE AND THEN AFTER THAT IF IT DOES...OR DOES
NOT...APPROACH THE COAST AND OH YEAH IF YOU DON'T LIKE THIS
PARTICULAR MODEL RUN WAIT FOR ANOTHER ONE AND IT WILL CHANGE (AND
YES THAT WAS A DELIBERATE RUN ON SENTENCE!). MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
MAP ABOUT WHAT MAY TRANSPIRE OFF THE COAST THIS WEEK WITH THE NAM
SERIES BRINGING A LOW TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA EAST COAST...GFS MOVING
IT TOWARD THE COAST THEN NORTHWARD OFFSHORE AND NOGAPS HAS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WITH A WEAK LOW
FORMING OVER THE PENINSULA. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT SOMETHING...LIKE A
HYBRID SYSTEM...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EAST OF THE CAPE AND NORTHEAST
OF THE BAHAMAS AND SIT FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE IT MAKES UP ITS MIND
WHAT TO DO. SO THAT IS HOW I WILL PLAY THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHER
WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
WEDGE/NORTHEASTER AND THE HYBRID LOW. ALSO WILL INDICATE SOME
SHOWERS COMING IN OFF THE OCEAN AND INTO THE COASTAL AREAS ON
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT ACTUALLY DEVELOPS
OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND IF SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OCCURS
WILL HAVE TO REVISE THE EXTENDED WITH FUTURE PACKAGES.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/203.jpg

*edited by staff so we don't have to scroll to read each line on the page - image too large - made the image a clickable link

[Normandy]

This system does look like it has more potential to develop an LLC than 92L. However, I'm not so sure that the shear will remain 10kts or less through Tuesday. At least the GFS shows 35-45 kt SE winds at 200mb over the top of the disturbance as early as tomorrow night. See image below. The GFS indicates a fairly strong upper low over NE Florida by then. Such lows can actually help a system to develop if the upper winds aren't too strong. But conditions wouldn't be good for much strengthening. Sheared, weak tropical storms often result from such interactions. The threat to the southeast U.S. would be from heavy rain, not wind.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93L.gif

Looking at WV loops I dont see how an upper low that strong can form over FL....i dont se eone even starting to form....do u think the GFS is right?

[Scorpion]

It is looking extremely good this afternoon.

[storms in NC]

you would have the gulf stream to feed this and it could go into a TD or a TS. Also there is a High over the gulf so it wouldn't go into the gulf. If And the that would be a big IF does go into a TD or TS it would go south or get turned north. Should get turned north from the front that will be coming thought middle of the week.JMO

[Noah]

OK bottom line? What are we looking at for south florida towards west coast over the next few days? I get all confused reading all the stuff..

Anyone have something simpler? IS simpler a word? LOL!

[storms in NC]

THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN TAKING THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF FLORIDA AND MOVING IT
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT WILL
FOLLOW THE NAM HERE WHICH INDICATES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT AT THE BEACHES
WHERE IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER

[SouthFloridawx]

THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN TAKING THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF FLORIDA AND MOVING IT
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT WILL
FOLLOW THE NAM HERE WHICH INDICATES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT AT THE BEACHES
WHERE IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER

What NWS site did you get that from. Please provide a link.

EDIT: Thank you.

[storms in NC]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
356 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006