Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean (Ex 92L)

#21 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:15 am

This wave looks impressive this morning, with limited shear, warm SST's and deepening convection we may have a player here. If this convection near the assoc. low can maintain throughout today I think we could have a TD by tonight.

#22 Postby **tgenius** » Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:16 am

Wow.. a TD by tonight? Isn't that rather bullish considering?

Website · #23 Postby **Brent** » Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:19 am

11:30am TWO!!!

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY
AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

WOW.

rnbaida · #24 Postby **rnbaida** » Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:19 am

Just look at the Water Vapor image.. doesnt that look like a TD?

Frank2 · #25 Postby **Frank2** » Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:19 am

Is this the disturbance that everyone's getting excited about? It looks like one thunderstorm:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg

NONAME · #26 Postby **NONAME** » Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:19 am

This would take a couple of days to devlop. It has a few inhibiting factors to deal will it won't happen that fast.

rnbaida · #27 Postby **rnbaida** » Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:19 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131517
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY
AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES EAST OF
THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OR
SOUTH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART

#28 Postby **rjgator** » Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:21 am

Recon seems fast.

NONAME · #29 Postby **NONAME** » Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:21 am

N/M NHC said it was more organized then i thought.

rnbaida · #30 Postby **rnbaida** » Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:22 am

IF WE HAVE RECONS GOING IN WITH THE FIRST DISCUSSION ON THIS INVEST WE HAVE SOMETHING MAJOR>>>>

Meso · #31 Postby **Meso** » Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:22 am

This is amazing...Already a recon schedule... It looks very impressive for a wave.Will be very interesting to see what recon finds.I can see the board suddenly spring to life any moment now

Frank2 · #32 Postby **Frank2** » Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:23 am

It looks like another disturbance, similar to the one last Friday...

cheezyWXguy · #33 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:24 am

this ones not being robbed of convection or in a harshly dry/sheared area.

#34 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:25 am

NONAME wrote:N/M NHC said it was more organized then i thought.

I was going to respond to that but I figured the NHC TWO would take care of that.

This convection formed over the low last night and has continued to re-fire to this point. This wave was already impressive in its sat. presentation back when it was a naked swirl, you put re-firing convection over that for nearly 12 hours and it is easy to see whay they want to investigate it soon.

#35 Postby **CronkPSU** » Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:27 am

rnbaida wrote:IF WE HAVE RECONS GOING IN WITH THE FIRST DISCUSSION ON THIS INVEST WE HAVE SOMETHING MAJOR>>>>

slooooow down, breathe, count to ten, it is going to be alright

Website · #36 Postby **Brent** » Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:29 am

CronkPSU wrote:
rnbaida wrote:IF WE HAVE RECONS GOING IN WITH THE FIRST DISCUSSION ON THIS INVEST WE HAVE SOMETHING MAJOR>>>>

slooooow down, breathe, count to ten, it is going to be alright

No it's not. :eek:

NONAME · #37 Postby **NONAME** » Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:29 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:this ones not being robbed of convection or in a harshly dry/sheared area.

Um It is not Being Sheared But has dry air around but it won't inhibit it much but where are you getting the idea that it is being sheared.

NONAME · #38 Postby **NONAME** » Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:35 am

Also I started a Recon Thread Since Recon will be going in.

#39 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:38 am

rjgator wrote:Recon seems fast.

Agree. This year the NHC has been kind of aggressive with the RECONs. I like it since it provides a whole new world of information, but I see they are being more on the defensive this year and in previous years. Before, they would wait for the system to be well-establish to send a RECON, now a disturbance forms and the RECON squad is ready for action!!

cheezyWXguy · #40 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:39 am

NONAME wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:this ones not being robbed of convection or in a harshly dry/sheared area.

Um It is not Being Sheared But has dry air around but it won't inhibit it much but where are you getting the idea that it is being sheared.

I said its NOT in any of those...unlike 91L, which had all of those inhibiting factors

Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean (Ex 92L)

Who is online