NWS Melbourne Discussion, interesting

[EDR1222]

Just read their Saturday afternoon discussion and this is a somewhat interesting excerpt from it.
From the National Weather Service Office in Melbourne, FL:

TUE-SAT...GFS INDICATES THAT A POTENT MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL FORM
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AS THE WEAKENING TROUGH INTERACTS WITH AN
APPROACHING TUTT. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY DRIFT BACK ACROSS THE
PENINSULA AS IT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEPER SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST FLOW. MODELS ALL HINT AT SOME SURFACE
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN AND ABOVE CLIMO POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

[vacanechaser]

interesting


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[JonathanBelles]

a fransis/jeanne like track?

[sevenleft]

a fransis/jeanne like track?

Its just a model depicted mid level low. It'll just bring isolated showers and storms like any other mid-upper disturbance.

[JonathanBelles]

we need rain. 5 days now w/o rain in the middle of the season is not good!

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah things could get interesting... I was mentioning this a couple of days ago in this thread.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=87947

[SouthFloridawx]

[Extremeweatherguy]

hmm. Looks like something Gulf coast residents may have to keep an eye on next week.

[JonathanBelles]

again??? lol

[SouthFloridawx]

It's way to early to be talking like that... We need the front to stall out first and have convection. This is merely speculation at this point.

[Rainband]

West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay - Ruskin Florida
130 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2006


Short term (tonight-monday)...surface high pressure building over
the middle Atlantic coast will push a weak frontal boundary over the
southeast U.S. And Florida Sunday and Monday. Deep moisture and
additional l/l forcing provided by the frontal boundary will allow
numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop Sunday afternoon
across the northern and central forecast area. The frontal system
will stall across the central Florida Peninsula on Monday with
numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms across west central and
southwest Florida.


&&


Long term (mon ngt-sat)...most models are in agreement that some
sort of surface trough will exist over the Florida Peninsula on
Tuesday and perhaps into Wednesday. After that...large differences
show up between the various models...and in fact...run-to-run
consistency in models is lacking as well. This makes for a very low
confidence forecast...and one that tends to change each day.


The 06z run of the GFS once again developed a significant area of
low pressure along the boundary northeast of the Bahamas...then
moved it in a slow anti-cyclonic loop over the Atlantic waters just
offshore the southeastern U.S. This low completes this loop on
Saturday and begins to move southwestward toward the Florida
Peninsula south of a very strong surface ridge to the north. In
general...this pattern of having low pressure in the Atlantic and
high pressure to the north brings dry and mainly stable air into the
state. The 00z mex guidance had rain chances at about half of what
they should be for this time of year. Meanwhile...the latest 12z run
has a much weaker low further to the northeast...leaving a broad
trough of low pressure over the region with much deeper moisture in
place. These large difference from run to run are not surprising
since models are not very good at forecasting the transition from a
low pressure area on a front to a tropical cyclone once the front
dissipates. I think the best course of action is to leave the
current forecast intact...which allows some drier air to filter into
the state...but keeps probability of precipitation just a bit below climatic normals.


Temperatures will be highly dependent on the evolution of this weak
boundary and/or eventual surface low pressure...so here too we will
keep close to normal...which is also quite close to the 00z mex
guidance temperatures.


&&

[ronjon]

Both the 18Z NAM and GFS want to develop low pressure near or offshore S FL and move it west into the GOM next Tuesday/Wednesday. The NAM of course is the stronger of the models (tends to be its bias lately). In addition, the globals such as NOGAPs and UKMET also hint at development. If the model trends persist, we may have some home brew to watch off the west coast of FL next week.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[boca]

Ronjon I don't know about the rainfall in the Tampa area, but it hasn't rained down here in about a month. This could be real good news as lonng as it stays weak.

[tropical]

Ronjon I don't know about the rainfall in the Tampa area, but it hasn't rained down here in about a month. This could be real good news as lonng as it stays weak.

Are you out west? We've had a few pretty heavy showers just down the road from you here in Pompano during the last month, though not much in the last week or so. Even so, I'd happily run my sprinklers in lieu of any cyclone... unless it's very weak, as you say.

[fci]

Very little rain here in Lake Worth/West Boynton.

You may have had some heavy showers in Pompano but keep in mind that this IS the rainy season and the heavy showers should be a whole lot more frequent than even you have had in Pompano that we have missed in PBC.

It will bust loose soon and hopefully not by way of a strong storm but a pattern change so we can get the rain we need before the season is over in a few months.

[skysummit]

....and this is from the NWS New Orleans:

(I wonder if they're talking about the same setup)

MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WILL
FIND ITSELF STALLING FROM SE LA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP
CREATE A FOCUS AND CONNECT SFC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE
BENEFICIAL DYNIMICS ALOFT CREATING SEVERAL MCS FEATURES THAT WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE
GULF...THIS SCENARIO BEGINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THINGS BEGIN
TO GET EXCITING. UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL BECOME WEAK AS ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPS IN THE GULF WED.
EVENTHOUGH THESE GULF SYSTEMS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING THE GULF FROM EAST TO
WEST. SO FOR ANYTHING TO GET WELL DEVELOPED IT MAY TAKE A FEW
DAYS.



&&

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Everyone has to keep this general rule of thumb in mind:

Even if something does form, nine times out of ten the first several tracks indicated by the model runs is different from the eventual track the system takes.

[ronjon]

Ronjon I don't know about the rainfall in the Tampa area, but it hasn't rained down here in about a month. This could be real good news as lonng as it stays weak.

Boca, its been a dry August so far - only about 0.5 inch at TIA this month after 8 inches plus for July and June. Overall, the inland locations have seen an extremely dry "wet" season so far. Most of the afternoon storms have been forming close to the coast and moving offshore this summer. River flows are in the bottom 25th percentile for this time of year. I'd say most of the peninsula and panhandle could use a good soaking from a weak tropical cyclone. Current drought map.

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/drmon.gif

[gboudx]

A local DFW Met showed a low moving across the GoM this week and possibly being our next miniscule chance of rain. He mentioned it originated off the Fla east coast. Maybe the same thing?