NHC into the next tropical wave just emerged West Africa

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Not even in the ocean, and look at that large paragraph about the tropical wave.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE W COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 15W S OF
21N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE HAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SIGNATURE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS GENERATING SMALL
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 13W-19W.
EVEN THOUGH THIS WAVE HAS NOT YET PULLED OFF THE CONTINENT THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS ANALYZED POSITION BASED UPON THE
AVAILABLE SFC DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A CLASSIC
WAVE STRUCTURE. IN ADDITION...GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THIS WAVE
INITIALIZED WELL AND TRACK IT OFFSHORE TONIGHT EVENTUALLY
PICKING UP FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES UNDER A LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE.

[SouthFloridawx]

Way to get on it.

The one behind it strikes me ... looks like it already has low pressure associated with it.

[mike815]

hmmmm very interesting mentioned before it even emerges off the coast very interesting 8:05 "classic wave structure" only thing is will it fall apart like the others?

[hurricanetrack]

Yes, it will probably fall apart like the others. After August 15, not so much.

Just my 2 cents.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No I don't expect this to develop off the African coast.

1# The SAL/Dry air is still there above 12.5/13 north. This thing is moving off near the cape verde islands which is 12 to 15 north.

2# Waters north of 12 north over the eastern Atlatnic are as cool as 23 north in the Eastern Pacific. Not very good for development.

What needs to happen is for a wave to form near 10 north...And any ways it get more faverable for tropical cyclone formation pas 40 west. Even that with the dry air...Plus tutt not really. It takes heat/moisture through out the Atmosphere to get a cyclone to develop. This year is lacking it.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

[cycloneye]

00:00 UTC Full Disk Image


Above is the 00:00z Full Disk image that shows the wave.It looks like already is in a more northern latitud than the past waves that haved emerged West Africa this year.

If you dont have this full disk image then you have to register for free here.
http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/registerql.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif


Not very likely but we can dream

[AnnularCane]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2000H/ALBERTO/track.gif


Not very likely but we can dream

Oh yeah, baby. *drool*

[calculatedrisk]

Animation every 6 hours from:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rmet7n.GIF

[mtm4319]

The one near 30E looks pretty good!

[Cyclenall]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2000H/ALBERTO/track.gif


Not very likely but we can dream

Yep, that's what I'm talking about!

[calculatedrisk]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 12 2006

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1750.shtml?

excerpt:
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 18W S OF
20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE 12/1100 UTC DAKAR SOUNDING SUGGESTS
THAT THE WAVE HAS MOVED THROUGH AT LEAST BETWEEN 850MB AND 600MB
WHERE ESE/SE FLOW WAS OBSERVED. LIGHT N/NW FLOW WAS REPORTED AT
THE SURFACE THOUGH...BUT THIS MAY BE MORE DUE TO LOCAL/DIURNAL
EFFECTS. LOW CLOUD MOTIONS REVEAL SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE ABOUT
THE ANALYZED AXIS...BUT OVERALL IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH
THE QUASI STATIONARY MONSOON TROUGH NEARBY. NONETHELESS...HAVE
PLACED THE AXIS SLIGHTLY W OF THE 0600 UTC POSITION DUE TO THE
DAKAR SOUNDING. A SMALL PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION LIES JUST W
OF THE AXIS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING THROUGH WRN
SENEGAL AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 16W AND
18W.

[x-y-no]

*Yawn*

Wake me when it gets to 50W.


EDIT ... OK ... 40W

[Extreme Alde]

Actually I rather like the fact that the lack of activity elsewhere is allowing the NHC to express their thoughts on tropical waves this far out. It is not normally something I would have thought busier periods would have allowed them to do?
Or maybe I may not have noticed in busier periods. In any event it's good to have time to look at these things a little closer.

[x-y-no]

Actually I rather like the fact that the lack of activity elsewhere is allowing the NHC to express their thoughts on tropical waves this far out. It is not normally something I would have thought busier periods would have allowed them to do?
Or maybe I may not have noticed in busier periods. In any event it's good to have time to look at these things a little closer.

That's a point. Or maybe this relates to that study of tropical cyclone genesis that was in the news just recently. IIRC, that was specifically about stuying waves as they come off Africa.

[vacanechaser]

Actually I rather like the fact that the lack of activity elsewhere is allowing the NHC to express their thoughts on tropical waves this far out. It is not normally something I would have thought busier periods would have allowed them to do?
Or maybe I may not have noticed in busier periods. In any event it's good to have time to look at these things a little closer.

true, however, i have seen something lke this mentioned before, and remember, this is another branch at the nhc... not the forecasters themselves...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE HAS PULLED OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 18W S
OF 19N MOVING W 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. DAKAR SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE HAS MOVED THRU THE STATION NEAR 06Z. GFS
HAS THIS WAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AND INDICATES THAT IT WILL
PICK UP SPEED AS IT TRACKS UNDER A LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE WAVE IS FAIR AT BEST AT THE MOMENT...AS
IT IS EMBEDDED IN A QUASI-STATIONARY MONSOON TROUGH. PATCHES OF
MODERATE CONVECTION LIES FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 15W-19W.



8 PM Discussion

[Rainband]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2000H/ALBERTO/track.gif


Not very likely but we can dream

Oh yeah, baby. *drool*

Your response is shocking after I see where you reside.

[MGC]

This wave is embedded in some fairly moist air, unlike its predecessors. We need to keep an eye on it.....MGC