Can anyone tell if this will be an east or gulf coast year?

#21 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Sat Aug 12, 2006 10:53 am

I think it will be an East Coast year; due to the fact that the greatest analog match 1996 was also such (it had similar over all factors). That is just an educated guess though, BECAUSE NO ONE KNOWS FOR SURE.

Sanibel · #22 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Aug 12, 2006 11:00 am

Chris and 91L seem to have tracked in off the Cape Verde belt at a level equal to the islands. Depending on east coast troughs this would put the pattern right at the fork of either destination.

#23 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Sat Aug 12, 2006 11:08 am

As did Cesar in July 1996 (well even lower), but it was still an over all East Coast season, thus that doesn't mean much.

Sanibel · #24 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Aug 12, 2006 11:11 am

True. The pattern can change at any time. However we are following 2 years of low-trackers through the Caribbean.

#25 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Sat Aug 12, 2006 11:15 am

Well the Pattern is quite different than it has been the past two years; especially as compared to last year.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories200 ... 5-2006.jpg

willjnewton · #26 Postby **willjnewton** » Sat Aug 12, 2006 11:22 am

but noaa still predicts an above average storm season though, like they continue it so enjoy ya'll

#27 Postby **storms in NC** » Sat Aug 12, 2006 12:49 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Well the Pattern is quite different than it has been the past two years; especially as compared to last year.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories200 ... 5-2006.jpg

Will the shears let up any time soon? Or this much what we will have this year? The fight with the shears and ull's and dry air. This is really weard to have high shear where it is now.

#28 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Sat Aug 12, 2006 2:33 pm

No one knows for sure, it might, or it might not a la 1997. Right now the fine people at both NOAA, and Colorado State, are saying we will still have an above average season, along they have lowered their estimates just a bit in both cases. As such I think I'll defer to the expects, with the caveat that many of these same experts also thought 1997 was going to be above average.

willjnewton · #29 Postby **willjnewton** » Sat Aug 12, 2006 2:41 pm

but I thought that this 2006 storm season will be above average, did in 1997 the experts really expected an above average season???, I do NOT think so

willjnewton · #30 Postby **willjnewton** » Sat Aug 12, 2006 2:59 pm

hello where are you people???

Lindaloo · #31 Postby **Lindaloo** » Sat Aug 12, 2006 3:10 pm

willjnewton wrote:hello where are you people???

Hi will. I am here.

Someone will be in here shortly.

sunny · #32 Postby **sunny** » Sat Aug 12, 2006 5:26 pm

Lindaloo wrote:
willjnewton wrote:hello where are you people???

Hi will. I am here. Someone will be in here shortly.

I'm here, too (well, I just GOT here

)

#33 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Sat Aug 12, 2006 6:06 pm

Yes they (at least Dr. Gray) did expect an above average season in 1997.

Can anyone tell if this will be an east or gulf coast year?

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