2005 vs 2006

[Sanibel]

This trend of unfavorability only proves how difficult hurricane seasons are to predict. What is most obvious is that weather patterns tend to counter react in response to previous patterns. The hot 2005 season could have pushed the general weather pattern so hard that it has since rebounded and become unfavorable. I think it was Newton who said one force causes the equal and opposite reaction of another or something like that. I don't doubt that Chris and 91L would have been much different if they tracked across the same area last year.

What is happening right now shows that SST's, or predicted SST's, are not the only factor in the tropics. The ideal season for humans is one with no landfalling storms.

[MetroMike]

Yes it's hard tp predict these slight changes that occur each year. This year the high pressure over the Azores resulted in stronger than average easterly trade winds which resulted in upwelling across the Atlantic.

Thus S.S.T. were muted from last year.

[Sanibel]

So that's the culprit, thanks.

Just like the year following the record 1933 year, this year is weak with few impressive systems.

[Bane]

It's only August 11th.

[Swimdude]

It's only August 11th.

When I see someone say this a month from now, I'm going to laugh. Because that's pretty much all we're saying these days.

[Hurricaneman]

It's only August 11th.

When I see someone say this a month from now, I'm going to laugh. Because that's pretty much all we're saying these days.

And what needs to be remembered is that this is all normal and in will ramp up

[crazycajuncane]

That is like the most counteractive statement..... but it's only..... but it's only...
There is no comparison to 2005. It would be crazy for us to even get close to the activity on 2005.

Hurricane forecasting has come a LONG way, but they still have a lot of work to do.

Come November:

But it's only November..... hell everyone knows we still getting Tropical Storms in December!

[Sanibel]

The whole Caribbean seems to be upper air dominated by dry air and shear. Looks more like May than August. Systems are being stripped of moisture as they enter. Good for people trying to avoid storms and the exact opposite of last year.

[EDR1222]

There were so many things in place last year that led to a favorable environment for almost the entire season. We had really low sea surface pressures in the Carribean along with light wind shear and of course extremeley warm water. Favorably upper air patters also contributed.

[Sanibel]

It is interesting that the record year of 1933 was followed by an unimpressive season with weaker storms in 1934.

[wxman57]

I wonder what those who were expecting another season like 2005 would predict now for the final numbers in 2006? Seasons have no memory. Last year was an extreme anomaly. Back in June, it looked like there might be a weak La Nina forming so I expected that we may see 15 named storms this year, similar to what was seen between 2000-2004. Activity remains slightly above normal across the Atlantic (3 named storms by August 12th is above normal).

But what is "normal" these days? In the past, many weak storms way out to sea were probably missed as there was no satellite. Also, the NHC is now naming subtropical storms, storms that would not have been named before the 1990s. So the new normal would probably be closer to 12 vs. 10.

What we're seeing across the tropics today is quite normal for August 12th, but there are definite signals of a change in the very near future. The NAO is dipping way down now:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html

A negative NAO means that the Bermuda High is weakening and retreating eastward as the deep trof moves off the east U.S. Coast. As the high weakens, the strong trade winds which have been causing low-level speed shear in the deep tropics will subside, allowing for greater convergence and a much better chance of tropical development. I do expect that Debby will form within the next 5-10 days. Following Debby, I expect we'll see a run of maybe 7-8 named storms one after the other (sometimes 2-3 at once). This run of activity will probably end around the first week of October. The yearly total by then may be 11-12. It's possible that there could be a couple late-season subtropical storms, so the total by November 30th could be 13-14, maybe even the 15 I had predicted. But it's also possible, if not more likely, that the season will shut down very quickly after the coming burst of activity.

If I could revise my 2006 seasonal numbers today, I'd go with:

13 / 6 / 3

By the way, what is the link to the season prediction thread?

[Extreme Alde]

Interesting wxman57 and I am inclined to agree and will also note that those that phrophesised doom on SST's alone should read you post with interest. What interests me though is the prediction tha tthe season is "more likely" to shut down after a burst of activity.

Is there something specific you have in mind that will cause this?

[Sanibel]

Thanks 57. I was looking for feedback like that.

Along with NAO fluctuations, the summer jet can suddenly slack and pull up deep moisture into the formation zones. After August 15th that is almost a certain recipe for activity.

[Aquawind]

2006 Official Storm2k Forecast Numbers Poll

1-Cycloneye=16/9/4=(Preliminary) 15/9/4=(Final) 3/28/06
2-Meso=19/9/5
3-Team Ragnarok=17/7/4 (Preliminary) 18/7/4=(Final) 5/4/06
4-Ixolib=21/11/5
5-weatherwoman132=24/10/5 (Preliminary) 19/10/6=(Final) 5/19/06
6-Matt-hurricanewatcher=13/5/2=(Preliminary) 15/7/3=(Final) 5/5/06
7-Yarrah=15/9/4
8-webke=17/9/4
9-angelwing=26/10/5=(Preliminary) 27/11/6=(Final) 4/21/06
10-CHRISTY=22/11/6=(Preliminary) 18/11/6=(Final) 5/31/06
11-King-6=19/11/6=(Preliminary) 19/11/6=(Final) 3/23/06
12-skysummit=17/11/4
13-feederband=22/13/6
14-raindaze=21/11/4
15-CapeVerdeWave=16/9/6=(Preliminary) 16/9/6=(Final) 5/5/06
16-Weatherfreak000=24/9/6
17-alicia-w=21/16/5
18-HurricaneGirl=21/12/6
19-CrazyC83=18/11/7=(Preliminary) 20/12/7=(Final) 5/4/06
20-Andrew92=18/10/6
21-Hurricane Hunter 914=18/9/6=(Preliminary) 20/12/8=(Final) 5/28/06
22-vbhoutex=19/11/6= (Preliminary) 19/11/6=(Final) 5/9/06
23-southerngale=18/9/5=(Preliminary) 18/9/5=(Final) 4/9/06
24-Opal Storm=19/10/6=(Preliminary)18/9/6=(Final) 5/7/06
25-HURAKAN=18/9/5=(Preliminary) 19/11/6 (Final) 4/27/06
26-Bob R=16/8/4
27-ROCK=17/9/4
28-KWT=22/15/5=(Preliminary) 19/12/6=(Final) 5/24/06
29-Milankovitch=15/8/4
30-fact789=20/10/3=(Preliminary) 20/10/4=(Final) 5/30/06
31-GeneratorPower=30/17/7
32-boca_chris=22/11/5=(Preliminary) 15/9/4=(Final) 4/11/06
33-boca=17/9/4
34-Calamity=14/7/4
35-Steve=15/9/4
36-pelican13=16/8/4
37-hurricanefloyd5=20/10/6
38-x-y-no=18/11/6
39-storm4u=24/17/9=(Preliminary) 23/13/6=(Final) 5/11/06
40-mike815=18/8/5
41-JamesFromMaine2=22/13/5
42-Hurraicaneman=16/10/6=(Preliminary) 18/11/6=(Final) 4/27/06
43-Audrey2Katrina=16/7/3
44-aaaaaa=30/15/10
45-TampaFl=18/8/6
46-Hybridstorm_November2001=25/15/7
47-swimaster20=18/9/5=(Preliminary) 16/9/5=(Final) 5/22 06
48-RatteMan=20/13/5=(Preliminary) 18/11/6=(Final) 5/30/06
49-Scorpion=17/9/5=(Preliminary) 18/10/5=(Final) 5/16/06
50-Brunota2003=25/15/9
51-WindRunner=17/9/5=(Preliminary) 16/7/3=(Final) 5/15/06
52-wxwatcher91=17/10/6
53-johngaltfla=23/12/5
54-jason0909=15/7/4
55-george r 1961=20/10/5
56-Brent=17/9/5
57-southfloridawx2005=19/9/6=(Preliminary) 19/9/6=(Final) 3/28/06
58-weatherwindow=19/11/7
59-O Town=20/10/5
60-Trey=18/11/5
61-stacyp=11/5/2
62-CajunMama=19/8/3
63-Ivan14=18/9/6
64-f5=20/10/5
65-windycity=17/8/5 (Preliminary) 17/10/4=(Final) 4/3/06
66-NCHurricane=20/10/5=(Preliminary) 19/10/5=(Final) 5/22/06
67-wxman22=20/10/4
68-Stephanie=16/8/4
69-docjoe=20/14/6=(Preliminary) 19/11/6=(Final) 5/14/06
70-therock1811=20/10/5
71-drezee=15/9/4
72-James=17/7/4
73-ohiostorm=19/10/6
74-100feettstormsurge=19/11/5=(Preliminary) 22/12/6=(Final) 5/30/06
75-lester88=23/12/5
76-EFrancis=25/11/4
77-thefixed=23/12/7=(Preliminary) 21/10/6=(Final) 5/31/06
78-Pearl River=19/15/6
79-wayne56=19/13/7
80-benny=15/8/4
81-StormScanWx=18/10/4=(Preliminary) 19/11/5=(Final) 3/31/06
82-Vortex=18/9/5
83-reader12=17/11/4
84-JtSmarts=17/10/5
85-Extremeweatherguy=18/9/4=(Preliminary) 18/9/5=(Final) 4/19/06
86-canetracker=17/9/5
87-FlSteel=19/12/7
88-Johnny=19/10/5
89-TexasStooge=17/8/4=(Preliminary) 17/9/4=(Final) 3/22/06
90-NONAME=22/15/6
91-dixiebreeze=15/7/4
92-BayouVenteux=16/9/5=(Preliminary 16/9/4=(Final) 4/19/06
93-Jack8631=19/9/4
94-JPmia=21/14/6
95-ivanhater=19/11/7=(Preliminary)19/11/7=(Final) 5/7/06
96-The European=20/11/6
97-AussieMark=15/8/5=(Preliminary 14/7/4=(Final) 5/31/06
98-StormsFury=18/11/5
99-The Cycloman PR=15/9/4
100-mikeanthony1965=20/12/5
101-luvwinter=19/10/6
102-stormchazer=18/16/4
103-MGC=15/9/4
104-Rainband=20/14/8=(Preliminary) 20/9/6=(Final) 5/5/06
105-wxmann 91=16/10/7=(Preliminary) 14-8-5=(Final) 5/11/06
106-Hurricane Floyd=17/9/5=(Preliminary) 17/9/5=(Final) 5/9/06
107-Jax=21/10/3
108-Isu2001=20/9/4
109-HouTXmetro=23/12/7
110-cheezywxman=22/11/6
111-terstorm1012=16/9/4
112-Recurve=26/12/5=(Preliminary) 23/11/3=(Final) 5/14/2006
113-EDR1222=14/6/3=(Preliminary) 14/7/4=(Final) 5/2/06
114-jdray=19/10/5=(Preliminary) 18/9/5=(Final) 5/2/06
115-zoeyann=21/12/5
116-pojo=19/12/6
117-LSU_Weatherguy=16/12/7
118-Cookiely=19/10/6
119-cinlfla=18/13/7
120-Beer980=20/11/5
121-LaPlaceFF=22/11/5
122-Tampa Bay Hurricane=16/12/9
123-Evil Jeremy=19/11/7 (Preliminary) 18/9/5=(Final) 5/22/06
124-Tstormwatcher=19/10/5
125-coriolis=21/10/5
126-meteorologyman=27/14/7=(Preliminary) 30/20/12=(Final) 5/18/06
127-jusforsean=24/14/7
128-Downdraft=18/9/6
129-Camille_2_Katrina=12/5/2
130-Destruction5=18/11/5
131-Trader Ron=16/9/4
132-28 Storms=20/10/7
133-Tommedic=22/11/6
134-Windtalker1=23/12/8
135-Josephine96=19/10/6
136-Truqunzn=29/16/10
137-senorpepr=18/10/5
138-CronkPSU=21/14/4
139-YankeeGirl=18/11/5
140-Canelaw99=18/7/3
141-mempho=22/16/11
142-WeatherEmperor=18/8/5
143-RQSTR=23/14/9
144-Air Force Met=18/10/5
145-deltadog03=20/13/6
146-baw_es=15/11/5
147-magwitch=28/15/6
148-thunderchief=17/10/5
149-BiloxiBacon=14/7/4
150-m_ru=27/17/10
151-dhweather=16/11/5
152-Old-TimeCane=19/8/5
153-chadtm80=18/11/5
154-jschlitz=17/12/6
155-T genius=18/8/4
156-fwbbreeze=17/7/5
157-Stratusxpeye=17/12/5
158-wlfpack81=18/11/7
159-raisinsnacks=15/7/3
160-Thunder44=18/10/4
161- Regit=22/13/6
162-Pebbles=17/9/4
163-drudd1=20/14/7
164-apocalypt-flyer=19/11/6
165-Weather Watcher=19/8/4
166-P.K.=18/12/6
167-Loring=18/9/4
168-vacanechaser=17/12/6
169-skywarn=19/12/7
170-PTrackerLA=19/10/6
171-mvtrucking=20/9/4
172-Wnghs2007=18/12/6
173-wxman57=15/8/4
174-Hyperstorm=14/9/4
175-GalvestonDuck=17/10/4
176-milwaukeebrian=19/11/5
177-rainshine=19/9/6
178-Aquawind=15/9/5
179-wz247=20/11/6
180-Maxibide=16/12/5
181-Tampa God=21/15/7

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... ne&start=0

For your viewing pleasure..

[cycloneye]

Interesting to see the poll right now. But no changes can be made.When November 30th arrives we will see how many members got very close to what the actual 2006 numbers were.

[Sanibel]

Welp, time for the "Season hasn't reached its peak" people to admit the entire Atlantic basin is unusually negative. It looks more like May than August. The convection that does exist is sparse with no red top IR seen throughout.

This leaves me to wonder if the late season in the west Caribbean will have untapped SST's and leave the threat of a real monster once it gets juiced?

[storms in NC]

I posted this in another post but this tell why we will not have a year like last year

http://us.video.aol.com/video.index.adp ... id=1689428

[Sanibel]

Dr. Landsea made a mistake. He said "weaker" west winds than last year were blowing the storms apart when he meant "stronger".

[wxwatcher91]

Oh come on people! obviously we will get 10 named storms in October to make things interesting

actually, I would like everyone to remember that last year in August, it was fairly inactive (relative to the previous month) and then towards the end of August, Katrina came. Personnally, I think that Ernesto is going to be a major (not a Katrina) but a major none the less.