Western Caribbean Wave (Ex 91L)

rockyman · #241 Postby **rockyman** » Fri Aug 11, 2006 3:48 pm

What's with the cyclonic motion at the SW corner of the blob? I've watched it all day, but it appears to be aloft.

HurricaneHunter914 · #242 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Aug 11, 2006 3:55 pm

Probably a weak MLC?

#243 Postby **tailgater** » Fri Aug 11, 2006 3:56 pm

rockyman wrote:What's with the cyclonic motion at the SW corner of the blob? I've watched it all day, but it appears to be aloft.

Yes I would agree with that.
850 mb vorticity
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8vor4.GIF
700 mb
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8vor3.GIF
500 mb
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8vor2.GIF
200 mb
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8vor1.GIF

miamicanes177 · #244 Postby **miamicanes177** » Fri Aug 11, 2006 3:58 pm

the latest wind shear analysis is showing very little shear...just 5-10kts across the caribbean. So I guess the problem would be dry air.

Sanibel · #245 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Aug 11, 2006 4:04 pm

This system is still active, which teaches a lesson to the "this is dead" crowd.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #246 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Aug 11, 2006 4:12 pm

Looks to be a nice MLC. Lets see if convection can form over it to force it tot he surface. Come on form darn it!!

miamicanes177 · #247 Postby **miamicanes177** » Fri Aug 11, 2006 4:17 pm

what do you guys think about all the dry air ahead of it? There is little wind shear, so as I said above the only factor right now is dry air.

miamicanes177 · #248 Postby **miamicanes177** » Fri Aug 11, 2006 4:18 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY

#249 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Fri Aug 11, 2006 4:22 pm

Strange little wave, appears that a new bursts of convection is forming right in the center of that mid-level circulation.

#250 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Aug 11, 2006 4:23 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 111813
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 71W S OF 20N MOVING W
NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE ALSO HAS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED V-SHAPE
CURVATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE APEX
ALONG THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 69W-73W.

FlSteel · #251 Postby **FlSteel** » Fri Aug 11, 2006 4:23 pm

Well one thing can be said. This wave is persistent to say the least.

Trugunzn · #252 Postby **Trugunzn** » Fri Aug 11, 2006 4:23 pm

well it slowed forward speed and shear wont affect it as much. The only thing is maybe the dry air.

Sanibel · #253 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Aug 11, 2006 4:35 pm

If a fire gets lit under it it will burst nocturnal red IR tonight.

x-y-no · #254 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Aug 11, 2006 4:48 pm

Sanibel wrote:If a fire gets lit under it it will burst nocturnal red IR tonight.

I don't know about tonight, but in the next day or two maybe ...

Lots of energy where it's headed, so despite some things against it, I wouldn't write it off just yet ...

beachbum_al · #255 Postby **beachbum_al** » Fri Aug 11, 2006 8:33 pm

So where is this little wave that doesn't give up? Is there a chance it is headed toward the GOM? What are the chance that it could do something later on ?

#256 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Fri Aug 11, 2006 8:35 pm

could this this be the season of the little engines that could?

#257 Postby **wjs3** » Fri Aug 11, 2006 9:05 pm

I've been watching the satellite (visible then IR) like many of you today. It looks to me like the convection in the wave (enhanced by the ULL it's interacting with) fired out an outflow boundary (I mentioned it earlier today).

That marked the death of the original convection, and as it died, we saw what looked and awful lot like a mesoscale convective vortex (yes, a type of mid-level circ). Happens in dying MCS's and MCC's all the time over land.

Then new storms fired along the outflow boundary as it crossed Hispaniola, while the first convection continued to fade. The new convection over Hispaniola is becasue of the outflow boundary and the continued upper support from the ULL.

Still sounds and looks too much like something we'd see in the mid latitudes. More like mesoscale meteorolgy than tropical, I think.

Sanibel · #258 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Aug 11, 2006 9:43 pm

Probably right. This is the place where Chris fizzled as well.

Nimbus · #259 Postby **Nimbus** » Sat Aug 12, 2006 7:09 am

Well all the conditions have turned more favorable. SST's are higher, there is less dry air near Jamaica and the shear is relaxing in the western caribbean.
Yesterday there was a well defined wave but there is no convection this morning.

#260 Postby **tailgater** » Sat Aug 12, 2006 7:21 am

From this mornings TWD
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 21N MOVING
W 15 KT. WAVE IS MOVING BENEATH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH WHICH IS
PARTIALLY MASKING THE SIGNATURE CURVATURE AND DIMINISHING ANY
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

Western Caribbean Wave (Ex 91L)

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