Surface low forming off NC?

[Stormavoider]

The southerly component of that is what gets my interest.

[vacanechaser]

yea... just looking at the gfs, 2 runs now show nothing... they were hinting at something yesterday, now it shows a low along the front move through NC. and out to sea... also, nothing even in the deep tropics..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Stormavoider]

Can you see that rotation in the center of that loop? It's right on the NE edge of that big ball of convection.

[vacanechaser]

there may be a spin there, but it does not look that impressive to me right now... we need to get the sun up more... plus all the low level clouds are streaming off to the east while mid and upper levels appear to be moving southeast... if thats the case, what ever may be at the surface may be outta here....


we will have to see a little later


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Stormavoider]

Thanks

[vacanechaser]

no problem...




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Stormavoider]

I am probably driving everyone nuts here.

Ship report indicates east wind and 1006mb pressure.
Are pressures in this range normal with passing fronts???


ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS TCC TIDE S1HT S1PD S1DIR S2HT S2PD S2DIR Ice Sea
(GMT) km ° ° m/s m/s m sec sec ° mb mb °C °C °C kmi 8th m m sec ° m sec ° Acc Ice
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIP S 1200 34.80 -74.80 196 275 100 7.2 - 1.0 3.0 - - 1006.0 -0.5 27.5 30.1 - 20 5 - - - - - - - ---- -----

[vacanechaser]

i guess if there is a little weak low forming which may or may not be happening... i think it will be nothing until next week... . the fronts will push through and next week a trough may split and leave a piece behind... with building pressures over the north atlantic, then me may see something... for now, that may be a weak low along the frontal boundry.... nothing should happen from it..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Stormavoider]

Here I go again. The rotation I commented on this morning is still evident. It has been moving ESE and is now at 32.5N 71W. If this were to develop, could it get far enough south to turn back west?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=32&lon=-71&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=10&palette=ir.pal

Rotation is about dead center of this loop.

[curtadams]

I see a little spin but it looks to be associated with a front. I don't see how it will have time to develop before it get blown out into less favorable conditions in the Central Atlantic.

[vacanechaser]

doubtful... there is a succession of troughs moving through till next week... it will get shoved out...

and honestly, i do not see a true surface circulation... i see maybe a mid or upper level circulation, but that it right now....


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[vacanechaser]

I see a little spin but it looks to be associated with a front. I don't see how it will have time to develop before it get blown out into less favorable conditions in the Central Atlantic.

good point... it is tied up in the front.... that has little chance of developing.. if there was a surface circulation...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[curtadams]

Could be this GFS nowcast storm which the GFS thinks is currently cold-core. The GFS think it will become warm-core but remain inconsequential over the next few days. Of course, the GFS isn't god when it comes to cyclogenesis.

[vacanechaser]

Could be this GFS nowcast storm which the GFS thinks is currently cold-core. The GFS think it will become warm-core but remain inconsequential over the next few days. Of course, the GFS isn't god when it comes to cyclogenesis.

it does not get much right any time...lol.



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team