Re: convergencezone's post
...I'll go on record saying that if this wave DOESN'T develop(although I think it will), and we still don't have any storms or areas of interest by August 20, that yes indeed, it will be a short season. You can only keep pushing back the time for it to get active so much, before finally you just have to admit it. Like you said, many seasons have died off later in September and had no activity after that, and that's only a month away. I'm not saying that this season will necessarily die off in late September, but it can happen. Again, it's not that there aren't any hurricanes or storms that is effecting my reasoning, it's just that there doesn't seem to be many areas of convection at all. Usually this time of year, there's all kinds of areas to watch. There's usually all kinds of "Blobs" of convection floating around, but strangely enough, not this year. I would LOVE their to be no landfalling storms, but I"m really upset that there haven't been any fish storms to track. Ya only get a chance to do this once a year.
I might be wrong, but, assuming that Global Warming is to blame, if the atmosphere is heating up (as it appears to be statistically), then, less moisture is available - the old "dry heat" syndrome, versus a cooler atmosphere, where more condensation is produced - it makes sense.
Until last evening (being way down here in South Florida), I did not even realize that the corn belt is drying up, with some areas in the "exceptional" drought category - some scientists have predicted that global warming would result in increasing areas of drought, and, fewer-but-more-intense outbreaks of all types of severe weather...
Frank