HUGE African Wave

[vacanechaser]

we have had huge waves this year, and none of them made the air "juicy"
what makes you think this will be and different??

the longer term models are not showing much happening all the way till aug. 27/28..
i think this season is gona be slower than most expect

well for one, less SAL... these waves at this time of year can set the stage real nicely and turn things around... just because they have come off large in the past this year does not mean much... timing was not right and the atlantic has been in a normal mode...

as far as the models go... i know they are not showing much... but we are really talking about the gfs here and that does not mean much at all.... i think in a few days we will see everything begin to change...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[SouthFloridawx]

we have had huge waves this year, and none of them made the air "juicy"
what makes you think this will be and different??

the longer term models are not showing much happening all the way till aug. 27/28..
i think this season is gona be slower than most expect

well for one, less SAL... these waves at this time of year can set the stage real nicely and turn things around... just because they have come off large in the past this year does not mean much... timing was not right and the atlantic has been in a normal mode...

as far as the models go... i know they are not showing much... but we are really talking about the gfs here and that does not mean much at all.... i think in a few days we will see everything begin to change...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I agree with you... all this talk about things being boring seems like the same old same old when nothing is going on.

[Derek Ortt]

remember 1998?

It was even more quiet than this at this time of year, with only one sheared TS

It went on to be the worst season since the 1780's, far worse than last year even (Georges and Mitch alone did the trick)

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow - if that comes true (the last few days of August), that would really be unusual, since, some seasons end after mid-September...

Frank

Well, you might be right Frank. I'll go on record saying that if this wave DOESN'T develop(although I think it will), and we still don't have any storms or areas of interest by August 20, that yes indeed, it will be a short season. You can only keep pushing back the time for it to get active so much, before finally you just have to admit it. Like you said, many seasons have died off later in September and had no activity after that, and that's only a month away. I'm not saying that this season will necessarily die off in late September, but it can happen. Again, it's not that there aren't any hurricanes or storms that is effecting my reasoning, it's just that there doesn't seem to be many areas of convection at all. Usually this time of year, there's all kinds of areas to watch. There's usually all kinds of "Blobs" of convection floating around, but strangely enough, not this year. I would LOVE their to be no landfalling storms, but I"m really upset that there haven't been any fish storms to track. Ya only get a chance to do this once a year.

[Typhoon]

Well, you might be right Frank. I'll go on record saying that if this wave DOESN'T develop(although I think it will), and we still don't have any storms or areas of interest by August 20, that yes indeed, it will be a short season. You can only keep pushing back the time for it to get active so much, before finally you just have to admit it. Like you said, many seasons have died off later in September and had no activity after that, and that's only a month away. I'm not saying that this season will necessarily die off in late September, but it can happen. Again, it's not that there aren't any hurricanes or storms that is effecting my reasoning, it's just that there doesn't seem to be many areas of convection at all. Usually this time of year, there's all kinds of areas to watch. There's usually all kinds of "Blobs" of convection floating around, but strangely enough, not this year. I would LOVE their to be no landfalling storms, but I"m really upset that there haven't been any fish storms to track. Ya only get a chance to do this once a year.

Even if we have no more storms by August 20, it's still not a guarantee we won't have an active season. The peak of hurricane season doesn't come until September 10. Historically, the activity around September 10th is double the activity on August 20 and four times the activity on August 10! Furthermore, the first three weeks of October are more active than early to mid-August. Even with "just" three named storms, we're above normal. The average date of formation of the first hurricane is August 14, and the average date of formation of the first major hurricane isn't until September 4. I'm not saying that it will be an active season, just that you cannot write it off yet.

[rainstorm]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

nothing developing at this time

[Frank2]

Re: convergencezone's post

...I'll go on record saying that if this wave DOESN'T develop(although I think it will), and we still don't have any storms or areas of interest by August 20, that yes indeed, it will be a short season. You can only keep pushing back the time for it to get active so much, before finally you just have to admit it. Like you said, many seasons have died off later in September and had no activity after that, and that's only a month away. I'm not saying that this season will necessarily die off in late September, but it can happen. Again, it's not that there aren't any hurricanes or storms that is effecting my reasoning, it's just that there doesn't seem to be many areas of convection at all. Usually this time of year, there's all kinds of areas to watch. There's usually all kinds of "Blobs" of convection floating around, but strangely enough, not this year. I would LOVE their to be no landfalling storms, but I"m really upset that there haven't been any fish storms to track. Ya only get a chance to do this once a year.

I might be wrong, but, assuming that Global Warming is to blame, if the atmosphere is heating up (as it appears to be statistically), then, less moisture is available - the old "dry heat" syndrome, versus a cooler atmosphere, where more condensation is produced - it makes sense.

Until last evening (being way down here in South Florida), I did not even realize that the corn belt is drying up, with some areas in the "exceptional" drought category - some scientists have predicted that global warming would result in increasing areas of drought, and, fewer-but-more-intense outbreaks of all types of severe weather...

Frank

[Frank2]

...as for the season itself, and every other scientific explanation aside, eventually the seasons will change from summer to fall, and, the "window of opportunity" for hurricanes to form will close once again - time and seasons do march on, despite what Man has done to change things...

[curtadams]

I might be wrong, but, assuming that Global Warming is to blame, if the atmosphere is heating up (as it appears to be statistically), then, less moisture is available - the old "dry heat" syndrome, versus a cooler atmosphere, where more condensation is produced - it makes sense.

Until last evening (being way down here in South Florida), I did not even realize that the corn belt is drying up, with some areas in the "exceptional" drought category - some scientists have predicted that global warming would result in increasing areas of drought, and, fewer-but-more-intense outbreaks of all types of severe weather...
Frank

No, global warming increases upper tropospheric moisture due primarily to increased convection. This has been predicted and observed. The drought + flood combo we're getting throughout the Southernmost US (from you out to me here in CA) is, I think, supposed to happen from the subtropical subsidence zone moving north onto us. It's not supposed to happen so fast, though. I'm not sure what the GW predicts for the corn belt is as far as rain goes.