Western Caribbean Wave (Ex 91L)

[HURAKAN]

We will have to wait until it reached the WCAR to see if it has a better chance to develop, as of now, nothing can be expected from this system except to spread showers and thunderstorms over Puerto Rico and the Hispaniola.

[caneman]

Look at the link I posted below... If you noticed that convection in front of 91L was quickly sheared and pushed to the south.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

Shear tendency indicates increasing shear ahead of 91L.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

This is indicated here by the an upper level trough in the vicinity.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

Unless this Upper Level trough moves out which it doesn't look like it is at this time.. Expect any convection moving westward with this tropical wave to be sheared apart.

This upper level trough is dug in looking at the water vapor.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

This thing doesn't have a chance until it reaches the western caribbean and BOC/Southern GOM.

Expect this wave to cause enhanced convection in the GOM as this wave should end up interacting with a short wave forecast to come down from the north into the southeast US.

Looks to me like this feature is starting to move out. Look for increased convection to build. I would say by later today or tomorrow we'll be looking at a whoe new ball game. Somewhere around Dominica.

[Stormavoider]

Wind gust to 55.9 kt???????

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sjnp4

[cycloneye]

Wind gust to 55.9 kt???????

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sjnp4

That is an error,as the data from the Airport in San Juan dont have that very high gusts.

RWRPR
PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1000 AM AST THU AUG 10 2006

PRZ001-004-101500-
PUERTO RICO

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
SAN JUAN LMM MOSUNNY 84 75 74 E15G21 30.00R HX 92

[Sanibel]

System has obviously reconsolidated its central core (albeit with weak convection).

Keep watching this. The consolidation is over the surface feature. Methinks if this finds hot water it will bloom. Question is if it is too close to islands.

[Thunder44]

I see no surface circulation. It just a tropical wave now interacting with the ULL north of Puerto Rico. Thunderstorm activity is being enhanced by the ULL and it also creating 20kt to 30kt shear over the system. I don't expect any development until possibly when it moves into the Western Carribean, if doesn't get ripped apart by the ULL first.

[Thunder44]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on August 10, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
over the eastern Caribbean Sea remains disorganized... and the Air
Force reconnaissance mission for today has been cancelled.
Upper-level winds are no longer favorable for tropical cyclone
formation and no significant development of this system is expected
as it moves westward across the Caribbean Sea at 20 to 25 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Friday.
$$
Forecaster Blake/Knabb

[AnnularCane]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on August 10, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
over the eastern Caribbean Sea remains disorganized... and the Air
Force reconnaissance mission for today has been cancelled.
Upper-level winds are no longer favorable for tropical cyclone
formation and no significant development of this system is expected
as it moves westward across the Caribbean Sea at 20 to 25 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Friday.
$$
Forecaster Blake/Knabb

Don't worry. The way this has been going, the next outlook will probably say a depression could be forming.

[SouthFloridawx]

Look at the link I posted below... If you noticed that convection in front of 91L was quickly sheared and pushed to the south.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html
Shear tendency indicates increasing shear ahead of 91L.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
This is indicated here by the an upper level trough in the vicinity.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html
Unless this Upper Level trough moves out which it doesn't look like it is at this time.. Expect any convection moving westward with this tropical wave to be sheared apart.
This upper level trough is dug in looking at the water vapor.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html
This thing doesn't have a chance until it reaches the western caribbean and BOC/Southern GOM.
Expect this wave to cause enhanced convection in the GOM as this wave should end up interacting with a short wave forecast to come down from the north into the southeast US.

Looks to me like this feature is starting to move out. Look for increased convection to build. I would say by later today or tomorrow we'll be looking at a whoe new ball game. Somewhere around Dominica.

As I said... 91L or the wave associated with it may have a better chance in the western caribbean and of course as always the BOC and Southern GOM.

Things could get interesting with this wave depending on how fast it moves. I could have some interaction with the short wave coming down sunday - monday in the southeast.

I would be very interested to see how this interacts with it.

[Buck]

20-25mph... it was nearly 30 yesterday, correct?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Interaction between TCs and Short waves can be interesting, and can also be unpredictable (phasing of which is one of my favorite areas of study actually; due to the fearsome storms sometimes generated by such). I agree it might get quite interesting in the near future.

[SouthFloridawx]

Interaction between TCs and Short waves can be interesting, and can also be unpredictable (phasing of which is one of my favorite areas of study actually; due to the fearsome storms sometimes generated by such). I agree it might get quite interesting in the near future.

I agree... this short wave and cold front associated with it has me a little concerned with possibly two areas to watch for development come sunday and early next week.

[SouthFloridawx]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 101818 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...



AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 21N
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NO LONGER FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AND
NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20 KT. THIS
MORNINGS QUIKSCAT PASS DID NOT SHOW A CLOSED LOW AND LOW CLOUD
MOTIONS DO NOT SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW IS PRESENT. THUS...THE LOW
THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ALONG THIS WAVE HAS BEEN REMOVED. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS NOTED WITHIN
300NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED JUST
SOUTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING HAVE WARMED THIS
AFTERNOON.

[Sanibel]

If a Low was trying to form under this I think the forward speed, shear, and environment blew it apart.


Will watch it until it poofs.

[dwg71]

Well itsgoing to be the 15th soon and nothing seems to be sticking around. Last year it seemed like every invest became a storm. This year we've had 12 invests and 3 named storms and ZERO hurricanes.

I would expect something by the 20th or so, but who knows.

[senorpepr]

Well itsgoing to be the 15th soon and nothing seems to be sticking around. Last year it seemed like every invest became a storm. This year we've had 12 invests and 3 named storms and ZERO hurricanes.

I would expect something by the 20th or so, but who knows.

FWIW, we've only had ten invests.

The first 90L was an invest for a South Atlantic storm.
The first 91L was a test for satellite products.

92L was the first true invest system.

[dwg71]

Thanks, I didn't look them up. I would be interested in last year's invests if anybody could list them.

[Swimdude]

To be quite honest, what's sticking in my head most about this season is good ol' 98L in the BOC / Western GOM...

[hcane27]

Thanks, I didn't look them up. I would be interested in last year's invests if anybody could list them.

Have the list this evening .... there were 47 invests issued in 2005

[dwg71]

Thanks, I didn't look them up. I would be interested in last year's invests if anybody could list them.

Have the list this evening .... there were 47 invests issued in 2005

And 28 named storms formed last year. That's 60% and we are at 30% this year.