Less Saharan Air Layer in Atlantic

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146177
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Less Saharan Air Layer in Atlantic

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 10, 2006 8:13 am

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

All the corridor between Africa and the Lesser Antilles is void of sal south of 15n.This is the first time this year that the data shows this indicating more moist air in the MDR area.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5201
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

#2 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Aug 10, 2006 8:16 am

great news!

Thanx a bunch for sharing...at least maybe we can get some tropical storms forming.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2813
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

#3 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Aug 10, 2006 8:19 am

Right on schedule. After all will be into mid-August soon.

Thanks for passing this info along Cyclone Eye. 8-)
0 likes   

Jim Cantore

#4 Postby Jim Cantore » Thu Aug 10, 2006 8:36 am

Get some fishes out there now!
0 likes   

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5201
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

#5 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Aug 10, 2006 8:40 am

Hurricane Floyd wrote:Get some fishes out there now!




I agree! How can we practice without at least some fishies to track!
0 likes   

User avatar
hurricanetrack
HurricaneTrack.com
HurricaneTrack.com
Posts: 1781
Joined: Tue Dec 02, 2003 10:46 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:

#6 Postby hurricanetrack » Thu Aug 10, 2006 12:31 pm

YES! That's awesome. Now we need some upward motion out there and we're good to go. What the heck is an MJO anyway?
0 likes   

User avatar
Rieyeuxs
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 189
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2004 8:52 pm
Location: Birmingham, AL

#7 Postby Rieyeuxs » Thu Aug 10, 2006 12:37 pm

I've had to Wiki it too! :D

The MJO is characterized by an eastward progression of large regions of both enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall, observed mainly over the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. The anomalous rainfall is usually first evident over the western Indian Ocean, and remains evident as it propagates over the very warm ocean waters of the western and central tropical Pacific. This pattern of tropical rainfall then generally becomes very nondescript as it moves over the cooler ocean waters of the eastern Pacific but reappears over the tropical Atlantic and Indian Ocean. The wet phase of enhanced convection and precipitation is followed by a dry phase where convection is suppressed. Each cycle lasts approximately 30-60 days.
The MJO is also known as the 30-60 day oscillation, 30-60 day wave, or intraseasonal oscillation.
Although tropical cyclones occur throughout the boreal warm season (typically May-November) in both the Pacific and the Atlantic basins, in any given year there are periods of enhanced/suppressed activity within the season. There is evidence that the MJO modulates this activity (particularly for the strongest storms) by providing a large-scale environment that is favorable (or unfavorable) for development. The strongest tropical cyclones tend to develop when the MJO favors enhanced precipitation. As the MJO progresses eastward, the favored region for tropical cyclone activity also shifts eastward from the western Pacific to the eastern Pacific and finally to the Atlantic basin. While this relationship appears robust, the MJO is one of many factors that contribute to the development of tropical cyclones. For example, it is well known that sea surface temperatures must be sufficiently warm and vertical wind shear must be sufficiently weak for tropical disturbances to form and persist.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#8 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 10, 2006 12:39 pm

I was monitoring that graphic while 91L has good cyclonic turning and shortly before that, MJO was even weaker and farther to the north. It seems like it has moved a bit father south but, overall much weaker than a 2-3 weeks ago.
0 likes   

User avatar
Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Salisbury, NC
Contact:

#9 Postby Aquawind » Thu Aug 10, 2006 1:54 pm

I am with ya Luis! Prime Time is about here.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=87811
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146177
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#10 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 10, 2006 1:57 pm

Aquawind wrote:I am with ya Luis! Prime Time is about here.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=87811


No wonder I didn't saw your thread as it was already on page 3.But we agree that time will come soon for things to pick up. :)
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
terstorm1012
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1314
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:36 pm
Location: Millersburg, PA

#11 Postby terstorm1012 » Thu Aug 10, 2006 2:04 pm

good time to track some FISH! my tracking and forecasting skills have been rusty lately!
0 likes   

User avatar
Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Salisbury, NC
Contact:

#12 Postby Aquawind » Thu Aug 10, 2006 2:04 pm

Absolute agreement 8-)

Things will be getting active soon in the Atl Basin.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Cpv17, gib, Google Adsense [Bot], Hurricaneman, islandgirl45, Killjoy12, MarioProtVI, Miami Storm Tracker, NingNing and 45 guests