CPC=Neutral next 1-3 months,50% chance of el nino end 2006

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cycloneye
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CPC=Neutral next 1-3 months,50% chance of el nino end 2006

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 10, 2006 7:03 am

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... _advisory/
:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

This is the August Update for ENSO from Climate Prediction Center.

Apart from the forecast for Neutral ENSO for the next 1 thru 3 months,also there is a 50% chance of a weak el nino developing by the end of 2006.Read the update and you can comment about it here.
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HURRICANELONNY
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ENSO

#2 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Thu Aug 10, 2006 7:25 am

I checked to make sure no one posted the update. Sure enough Cyclone beat me once again. LOL I would say the ENSO is effecting the tropics at present. How much is soon to be seen. Probably will be a weak El Nino in a couple months. I hope this year is quiet. I had enough last year.
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#3 Postby boca » Thu Aug 10, 2006 7:27 am

Well at least we know why all the shear is ocurring in the Atlantic.Everytime something develops its top gets blown off.
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willjnewton

#4 Postby willjnewton » Thu Aug 10, 2006 7:30 am

why our you all letting you guys be off the hook, because the climate prediction center done as expected, in fact I was thinking they would say neutral-1-2 months but instead they said 1-3 neutral and thats a long time
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Re: ENSO

#5 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 10, 2006 8:09 am

HURRICANELONNY wrote:I checked to make sure no one posted the update. Sure enough Cyclone beat me once again. LOL I would say the ENSO is effecting the tropics at present. How much is soon to be seen. Probably will be a weak El Nino in a couple months. I hope this year is quiet. I had enough last year.


Even if the season is slow,remember that it only takes one.
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#6 Postby bob rulz » Thu Aug 10, 2006 8:10 am

boca wrote:Well at least we know why all the shear is ocurring in the Atlantic.Everytime something develops its top gets blown off.


Notice that it's still neutral. I doubt this has much to do with it.
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#7 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Aug 10, 2006 8:13 am

I still think they will be a couple of decent hurricanes this year, probably both in September with a few tropical storms scattered before and after those times.
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#8 Postby P.K. » Thu Aug 10, 2006 8:32 am

Well the way I read that it looks like they are thinking more towards a possible warm ENSO event than the BoM. But remember the NOAA said it was a cool ENSO event early this year but the BoM kept it as neutral.
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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 10, 2006 8:35 am

People, if you think 2006 has been boring, just wait for 2007.
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#10 Postby Jim Hughes » Thu Aug 10, 2006 9:01 am

P.K. wrote:Well the way I read that it looks like they are thinking more towards a possible warm ENSO event than the BoM. But remember the NOAA said it was a cool ENSO event early this year but the BoM kept it as neutral.


There are somewhat conflicting views out there with the three that you mention. I always have a great deal of respect for the Australian outlooks and this is why I always use the Long Paddock SOI data .

The ENSO effects them way more and they really dig deep into the different possible aspects behind it. The research into the EPI is a minor example.

The recent CPC subsurface data that I mentioned to you yesterday still supported plenty of warmth below so this might be why they are a liittle more optimistic about it's developmental chances . It always amazes me at how different all the data can be in regards to SST's. Up top or down below.
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#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 10, 2006 2:56 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:I still think they will be a couple of decent hurricanes this year, probably both in September with a few tropical storms scattered before and after those times.


You say that August will go without a hurricane forming?
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#12 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 10, 2006 3:02 pm

HURAKAN wrote:People, if you think 2006 has been boring, just wait for 2007.


What does that mean?
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#13 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 10, 2006 3:05 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:People, if you think 2006 has been boring, just wait for 2007.


What does that mean?


I think he says,el nino will be around to slow the 2007 season.
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#14 Postby canegrl04 » Thu Aug 10, 2006 4:12 pm

Will be interesting to see what spring 2007 looks like.If the waters in the pacific are still warming by then,the fall of 2007 could bring nasty flooding to California and make ongoing droughts get worse in other parts of the country.Just like 1997 :eek:
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#15 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Aug 10, 2006 4:23 pm

Yup only other time Doctor Gray's numbers didn't even come close was during the El Nino event of 1997/1998; that was the 1997 season when El Nino was forming, to be more precise. Not saying that will happen this time with 100% certainly, but it very well could, and thus it should be interesting to see if the various predictions for a active season (my own included) hold water come December.
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