Western Caribbean Wave (Ex 91L)

[Stormavoider]

I thought they lost interest. They are not even keeping the floater updated.

[caneman]

How we quickly we forget. Most systems wait til the West Caribb. to develop so I will withhold judgement until then. A lot of people jumpy on here and seem to forget that very few develop in the Eastern Carrib. Wake me up when it gets West of Haiti

[rockyman]

I'm not sure why we have so many jumping so easily on the "next" bandwagon...We still have a strong tropical wave with intense convection that continues to refire...the only reason the system has had so many forks stuck in it is the dying off of the MLC from earlier...If that now-dead MLC had not been so apparent on satellite, we would all still be watching with keen interest as the intense blob of convection steamed WNW toward Puerto Rico.

[Galvestongirl]

with the high out there, the GOM is pretty much protected......how long is the high supposed to last?

[ConvergenceZone]

NHC still thinks a TD could form.

They are just too tired to write another advisory. I doubt they actuallly believe it will form, but they are probably as frustrated as we are.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm not sure why we have so many jumping so easily on the "next" bandwagon...We still have a strong tropical wave with intense convection that continues to refire...the only reason the system has had so many forks stuck in it is the dying off of the MLC from earlier...If that now-dead MLC had not been so apparent on satellite, we would all still be watching with keen interest as the intense blob of convection steamed WNW toward Puerto Rico.

because everyone(including me) is in the "I'll believe it when I see it" mode.... It's doing the same thing Chris did. With this storm, too much shear, too much dry air, moving too fast. If it was already a hurricane and had to face those conditions, I'd give it a shot, but since it's just a wave and has to face those conditions, there won't be anything left of it by the time it reaches the Carib, kinda like how Chris faded into nonthingness.

[sevenleft]

Continuity.

The NHC doesn't go from one extreme to the other.

The 5:30 TWO will probably be a little more "grim" if the wave continues to lack organization.

[miamicanes177]

I agree with the NHC...this could develop into a tropical depression during the next day or so.

[wxdude67]

I thought plagarizing was against the rules???

[mike815]

not here it isnt. shhh quiet about that.

[AnnularCane]

Not quite ready to write this one off yet.

the only reason the system has had so many forks stuck in it

Ouch! Give the poor thing a break!

[FritzPaul]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I've always heard that if a tropical system isn't established (i.e. TS or Cane) when it crosses the Windward Islands into the Caribbean Sea then it has a hard time developing later on.

[miamicanes177]

I thought plagarizing was against the rules???

How is what I said plagarizing? I would rather not be accused of something I did not do. Thank you.

[caneman]

For the naysayers

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity1.png

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[wxdude67]

Check the very first post in this thread. That's what I was talking about.

[wxdude67]

miamicanes177,

You're welcome. I wasn't refering to you. Check out the first post in the thread.

[miamicanes177]

I checked the first post in the thread and I do not see that anyone plagarized. If your talking about the TWO, credit was given to the NHC for that.

[mike815]

really? hmmmm im not so sure bout that

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. WHILE AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT COULD NOT FIND A CENTER OF CIRCULATION THIS
AFTERNOON...THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES TONIGHT....AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON
THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN

Nevertheless, everyone knows that the TWO is only done by the NHC. No one else does that. So, even if you want to make it, it's not plagiarism.

[wxdude67]

I checked the first post in the thread and I do not see that anyone plagarized. If your talking about the TWO, credit was given to the NHC for that.

Disregard, the offender removed his post.