Western Caribbean Wave (Ex 91L)

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Conditions at Guadeloupe as a result of the arriving squall line.Maximum gusts of 40mph...

http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA

[Extremeweatherguy]

this is now more of a squall line rather than a developing TC

Derek, what do you think the NHC is seeing that made them say this..

THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION

.. in their 5:30 TWO? Are they just wrong, or is this really starting to show signs of organization?

[wxmann_91]

NHC just says that. This is clearly a weakening system, moving too fast, with convection outrunning the MLC.

[caneman]

NHC just says that. This is clearly a weakening system, moving too fast, with convection outrunning the MLC.

Conditions change. Worth keeping an eye on. See this many times every year. A Little patience is needed.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just took another look at the Satellite, and you do have to admit that this still has a nice MLC and the outflow looks pretty good:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg

Based on this I think 91L is anything but dead.

[Trugunzn]

not gettin much better:

[wxmann_91]

NHC just says that. This is clearly a weakening system, moving too fast, with convection outrunning the MLC.

Conditions change. Worth keeping an eye on. See this many times every year. A Little patience is needed.

Well yeah of course. I just meant at this time it's weakening, obviously it can pulse back up at a later time. It just needs to slow down. But, once it does, and the SAL leaves it, expect rapid development, IMO.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Isn't it normal for a developing system to go through cycles of increased and decreased convection?

[jasons2k]

It's obvious to me on the visibles - and especially so on the water vapor loop - the huge outflow pushing out on the N/NW side clearly indicates this is an open wave that structurally is in worse shape than it was earlier today.

[PTrackerLA]

I don't expect this to develop, as mentioned earlier it's pretty much a squall line now.

[tailgater]

check out pressure
http://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/puert ... ?icao=TLPL

[george_r_1961]

I don't expect this to develop, as mentioned earlier it's pretty much a squall line now.

Oh it can develop, just not anytime soon. This invest refuses to die.

[Dean4Storms]

I have to say this has been one of the longest, strongest, pulsing Tropical Waves that looks ready to develop one minute and not the next that I've ever tracked I believe. Can anyone remember any other?

[sevenleft]

I have to say this has been one of the longest, strongest, pulsing Tropical Waves that looks ready to develop one minute and not the next that I've ever tracked I believe. Can anyone remember any other?

Hundreds, I'm sure.

[Thunder44]

We need more convection to develop near the MLC east of the islands so that can work it's way down to the surface. Otherwise it will dissapate and system will have start orgazining over again. It's not going to redevelop further north in thunderstorms. Shear is too high there.

[cheezyWXguy]

chris

[Stratosphere747]

It looks as though the heavy convection is breaking away from the MLC. Could be a positive, though both are zipping along....

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB is saying that he thinks development from this system is unlikely, and he thinks it will also have a hard time reaching the states if it did develop. This is surprising from him as he usually bites on everything that spins out there, so basically I think this could mean one of two things:

A) He is right. OR B) Just the opposite happens (like with Chris).

I guess only time will tell..

BTW: He seems more interested in something that could spin up off the SE coast next week. If he is right, then that could become our Debby.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is the latest 72 hour surface forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[Trugunzn]

Its about to get exposed