Western Caribbean Wave (Ex 91L)

[SouthFloridawx]

Continue the discussion here...

http://storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=87848

#1

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 04&start=0

#2

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 75&start=0

#3

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. WHILE AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT COULD NOT FIND A CENTER OF CIRCULATION THIS
AFTERNOON...THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES TONIGHT....AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON
THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN

[southerngale]

ummmm, what is a GOOGLE BOT?

Googlebot - Wikipedia

[Trugunzn]

[Buck]

I've been away from the computer all day and just checked in and saw the satelite imagery and the Special Disturbance Statement... this thing looks good! I'm surprised it doesn't have a closed circulation.

[HURAKAN]

I've been away from the computer all day and just checked in and saw the satelite imagery and the Special Disturbance Statement... this thing looks good! I'm surprised it doesn't have a closed circulation.

Moving at almost 30 mph, impossible for a circulation to form.

[bvigal]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2006

...REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT.... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY.

So much for those mid-Caribbean model tracks!

[Derek Ortt]

this is now more of a squall line rather than a developing TC

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2006

...REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT.... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY.

So much for those mid-Caribbean model tracks!

It seems like the squall line is moving in a general direction toward us. Lets see if it doesnt weaken.

[Cape Verde]

Pretty hard to detect any circulation in that loop. Yet it looks right visually.

I think it has definite potential to develop, but it's clearly not there yet.

[Damar91]

Doesn't even really look close to either.

[HUC]

Now the bad weather arrived:in Martinica,gusts of 100kh(60mph),at LesSaintes,gusts of 93kh(around 60mph also)in my location(repeat the leeward side,gusts to 52kh (32mph);all with rapid passing squalls,and wind direction mainly from the ESE;some thunder....Barometer normal
These obs seems to confirm that threre is no closed circulation.For that time this is a rather strong TWave with heavy squalls.

[Damar91]

Like was said before, until this thing slows down it has no chance.

[Stormavoider]

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78954.html

29.86 in at Barbados
ENE @17

[bvigal]

Yes, Derek & Luis, you are both right, no disagreement whatsoever!!

Next time will be clear that what I'm worried about is hazardous weather, be it squalls, tropical storms, etc., and that we can sure have bad weather without anything 'organized'. I made at least 2 comments today that the precip was moving NW.

The mariners who were since this morning wondering which direction to head - best place to put down anchor or grab mooring tonight (which is done - already done now), have a different concern than hurricane tracking, safety of passengers, crew, and not sustaining damage to their vessels. Everything they diligently read or heard throughout the day, this would pass to the south of us.

Also, PR and probably St. Croix, are saturated from above normal rainfall. Flooding is certainly a concern.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the circulation seems to be SE of the convection right now, but it still is visible in the loop above and the visible loops.

[bvigal]

Now the bad weather arrived:in Martinica,gusts of 100kh(60mph),at LesSaintes,gusts of 93kh(around 60mph also)in my location(repeat the leeward side,gusts to 52kh (32mph);all with rapid passing squalls,and wind direction mainly from the ESE;some thunder....Barometer normal
These obs seems to confirm that threre is no closed circulation.For that time this is a rather strong TWave with heavy squalls.

THANKS for the report, HUC!!!!!!!!!!!!
Please stay safe!!!

Got to make some phone calls...

[Extremeweatherguy]

I've been away from the computer all day and just checked in and saw the satelite imagery and the Special Disturbance Statement... this thing looks good! I'm surprised it doesn't have a closed circulation.

Moving at almost 30 mph, impossible for a circulation to form.

not impossible, but highly unlikely. If there was just a 31mph west wind then it could develop a closed LLC.

[Sanibel]

This storm has a history of deep pulses. But Chris also looked promising but wiped out.

Nothing to do but wait for the next pulse.

[Stormavoider]

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78954.html

29.86 in at Barbados
ENE @17

Make that north at ?