Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

Trugunzn · #401 Postby **Trugunzn** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 2:28 pm

found 50kt winds

Damar91 · #402 Postby **Damar91** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 2:28 pm

Recon just found a 50kt. wind

#403 Postby **AnnularCane** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 2:29 pm

stormtruth wrote:I wonder if it will form and then discard all clothing like crazy Christopher

They have seemed resistant to wearing clothes so far this year, haven't they? 8-)

#404 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 2:30 pm

Plus a good bit of 40's!

Cyclenall · #405 Postby **Cyclenall** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 2:31 pm

Damar91 wrote:Recon just found a 50kt. wind

If only this thing had a closed off LLC.

#406 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 2:32 pm

it looks good right now but the shear has got to go, and it has to slow down

#407 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 2:32 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
Damar91 wrote:Recon just found a 50kt. wind

If only this thing had a closed off LLC.

"LET IT SLOW, LET IT SLOW, LET IT SLOW."

#408 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 2:32 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
Damar91 wrote:Recon just found a 50kt. wind

If only this thing had a closed off LLC.

If they can find one....hello Debby.

Trugunzn · #409 Postby **Trugunzn** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 2:32 pm

slow down another 5 knots and it will have the chance

sevenleft · #410 Postby **sevenleft** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 2:33 pm

Just try to make sense of the winds.

They found 20s and 10s at he surface, but 50 knots at 10,000 feet. Those 50 knot reports really don't mean much...

#411 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 2:34 pm

sevenleft wrote:Just try to make sense of the winds.

They found 20s and 10s at he surface, but 50 knots at 10,000 feet. Those 50 knot reports really don't mean much...

Reduce that to the surface and it's still TS force.

Extremeweatherguy · #412 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 2:35 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I do agree that the models now look much more "sensible". The BAM models, as I have said, did not know that the ridge north of 91L would be increasing with time, so they turned it WNW across the DR/Cuba. The dynamic models, on the other hand, had seen the ridge and forecast a much more westerly path.

Here's a model plot I just made. Note that many of the dynamic models indicate a track south of west toward the 4-5 day time frame as the ridge to the north strengthens.

well, at least this emliminates a USA threat and hopefully where it hits in Mexico won't be populated in case there's flooding....

Actually, it may not even make it in the gulf based on those models, might be one of those ones that emerge back into the Pacific, this seems more likely..

though I agree a U.S. threat is probably unlikely...it is by no means impossible with this system. If the ridge can move east or weaken some by days 5-7, then this could easily turn more NW into the Gulf. I will not be letting my guard down until this is inland in Mexico.

BTW: Being as it is nearly mid August, a surprise trough (like that seen in Charley) is not impossible either.

Sanibel · #413 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 2:37 pm

50kts with impressive dvorak curvature usually does it for me.

flhurricaneguy · #414 Postby **flhurricaneguy** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 2:38 pm

what direction is it moving right now?

#415 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 2:38 pm

Wow if we didn't have recon I would think this would be classified a TS just based on satellite images. Anyway, if (big if) this survives the trek accross the Carribean I think it has GOM written all over it. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

swimaster20 · #416 Postby **swimaster20** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 2:40 pm

Sanibel wrote:50kts with impressive dvorak curvature usually does it for me.

The only thing is...It does not have a closed LLC. If it would, then this would most certainly be a TD (or prolly a storm)

Extremeweatherguy · #417 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 2:40 pm

swimaster20 wrote:
Sanibel wrote:50kts with impressive dvorak curvature usually does it for me.

The only thing is...It does not have a closed LLC. If it would, then this would most certainly be a TD (or prolly a storm)

according to Derek..this would likely be a 45-50 kt. TS if it had a closed circulation.

Galvestongirl · #418 Postby **Galvestongirl** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 2:40 pm

at least this emliminates a USA threat

I wouldnt be so quick to eliminate anything as of yet......this system still has a long way to go and many things will change.

HardCard · #419 Postby **HardCard** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 2:43 pm

stating that this is not going to effect the US mainland or that it won't enter the gulf based on one model run, and a LONG LONG range forecast is the most ignorant statement I have ever seen on this site..

The fact is that until this system gets it's TRUE center and the models initiate it properly, they are less reliable than normal.. additionally, the models are not useful after 72 hours in OPTIMAL conditions...

the truth is we don't know where it's gonig to end up.... YET

rockyman · #420 Postby **rockyman** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 2:46 pm

I'm sure the poster meant that IF the globals models came to pass, then this would eliminate a threat to the U.S. If this is the "most ignorant statement" you've ever seen on this site, you probably need to do a little research...and you sure need to cool off before jumping on someone.

I'm sure if you look back at some of my posts, you'll find ignorance to spare

Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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