Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[Damar91]

I know looks can be decieving, but that whole "pinwheel action is looking very weird according to the latest satellite from the navy site. Comments?

[Derek Ortt]

this 30+ mph motion is very typical of a SAL system

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

31 mph westward movement would cover the west winds if they are weak.

[Sanibel]

You get pressure drops and wind increases with a sfc trough (wave axis) especially if there is convection present. It does not mean there has to be a LLC.

Sure, but we've been following the surface Low spiral on this one so calling it a trough feature isn't valid.

I've seen this before where the Atlantic easterly flow inhibits or disrupts the return winds on such a weak storm. The west wind sometimes gets cancelled by the strong Atlantic tropical easterly in this area.

That's why I say precise definition doesn't always apply to this level of storm. I think Claudette a few years back also jumped this phase.

[wxman57]

Here's a neat picture of 91L. I've been in bed the past 4 hours with a very sore back muscle. Got up to take a peek and thought it looked like a TS. But the spin appears to be aloft. Just goes to show how deceiving satellite imagery can be when trying to locate an LLC.

[StormsAhead]

I also go by no one yet explaining a pressure drop and windspeed increase without an LLC.

Especially with such a promising dvorak.

What increase in wind speed? What drop in pressure? If you're going by the NRL estimates, they're estimates, not actual data. Recon is actual data, and there's barely 25 knots at 1010mb at the surface, let alone 35 knots and 1000mb.

[miamicanes177]

something to get the kids excited

SHIFOR makes this a major hurricane in 5 days

[MWatkins]

The models were initiaized with a forward motion of 27 knots.

You can prety much forget about anything closing off moving that fast.

This is what the GFS and the related BAM models have been seeing. The lower half is racing along the low level ridge...and the mid level circ is lagging behind...note the possible MLC that was left behind in vis imagery loops.

As long as this business continues...we won't see any development

If it gets a chance to slow down and stack a little bit it has a chance to go.

MW

[Extremeweatherguy]

Finally the models begin to look more sensible.

[skysummit]

31 mph westward movement would cover the west winds if they are weak.

Hey...I didn't think of that. You'd have to have a 32mph west wind in order for it to show up.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

[flhurricaneguy]

its getting much larger

[Derek Ortt]

Claudette in 2003 did not close off until it was a 40KT TS

we may see the same thing here

[Sanibel]

That center vortex is really tightening.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't expect the development of a closed LLC at the surface with it moving 27 knots. Don't ever when a system is moving westward. Look at the western Pacific this system looks good but nothing will form at the surface intill it slows down.

[dwg71]

Finally the models begin to look more sensible.

What is your definition of sensible?? This an "invest" at this time, models are far from sensible, just because this run show a more west/gulf track doesnt make it more "right".

[ALhurricane]

You get pressure drops and wind increases with a sfc trough (wave axis) especially if there is convection present. It does not mean there has to be a LLC.

Sure, but we've been following the surface Low spiral on this one so calling it a trough feature isn't valid.

I've seen this before where the Atlantic easterly flow inhibits or disrupts the return winds on such a weak storm. The west wind sometimes gets cancelled by the strong Atlantic tropical easterly in this area.

That's why I say precise definition doesn't always apply to this level of storm. I think Claudette a few years back also jumped this phase.

The sfc low opened up due to lack of convection. Plus what you are seeing in satellite is most likely a mid level center. Recon has not found anything impressive at all so far.

But what the heck do I know. You must be the expert.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I agree Extremeweatherguy, that does indeed look a lot more sensible than before.

[brunota2003]

That center vortex is really tightening.

but it is a MLC that is being left behind...it is not a LLC, so therefore no tropical cyclone...see STDS above from NHC if you dont believe me...

[Trugunzn]

something to get the kids excited

SHIFOR makes this a major hurricane in 5 days

Do you have a link to the SHIFOR? That might show its track also? Thanx