Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[jasons2k]

Thanks Stratos - that pretty much sums it up. Wait 'n see for now...

[flhurricaneguy]

thank you very very much senor

[Extremeweatherguy]

The convection is growing in size!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

I think this could become our first large storm of the year.

I'm just curious, what's your meteorological reasoning with this other than a rehash of JB's thoughts & hype or the fact they have decided to send in recon? It's a small ball of convection that most of the globals dissipate in a few days - same as with Chris.

I don't think a temporary burst of convection translates to "our first large storm."

I meant large in terms of size, not windspeed. Currently, the convection is taking up quite a bit of area, so if it becomes a storm I think it could be larger than normal..thus the first large storm of the year.

[Blown Away]

If they find a W wind will they call it a TD now or at 5pm?

[SouthFloridawx]

If they find a center here is where I see it as my highest possibility...
Mind you I have limited capabilities here at work.

[MiamiensisWx]

If they find a W wind will they call it a TD now or at 5pm?

Since it's close to land and subject to watches/warnings issued, there would probably be an intermediate advisory. Of course, that depends IF it is upgraded or is in the process of being upgraded.

[WindRunner]

If they find a center here is where I see it as my highest possibility...
Mind you I have limited capabilities here at work.

http://img421.imageshack.us/img421/212/198nz3.jpg

Exactly as I see it, except that you found a better image to show it by.

[bvigal]

If they find a center here is where I see it as my highest possibility...

Agreed, it's looking like, with the shear, that's the center (if there is one).

[SouthFloridawx]

It would appear that if the center is there.. there are some new storms firing up on the eastern side.

Let's see if they last.

[Thunder44]

It would appear that if the center is there.. there are some new storms firing up on the eastern side.

Let's see if they last.

Recon seems to indicate if there is a center it's closer to Barbados. That may be a MLC you are pointing out.

[bvigal]

Here's a closeup image

[HURAKAN]

91LINVEST.35kts-1000mb-130N-570W.100pc.jpg

Debby!?!?!?!?!

Link

EDIT: URL changed to hyperlink to ensure limited scrolling and high forum morale -- senorpepr

[sevenleft]

91LINVEST.35kts-1000mb-130N-570W.100pc.jpg

Debby!?!?!?!?!

They are just estimates. With recon in there, they are what matter.

[Blown Away]

OMG the anticipation is exhausting!

[Furious George]

Here's a closeup image

The center may be under that flare up north of Barbados. If recon finds a closed circulation, I would expect TS warnings to go up very, very soon.

[bvigal]

OMG the anticipation is exhausting!

LOL, maybe a nip from the flask? They have quite a bit of flying to do yet. I think it will be a couple of hours, at least, before we really know the whole picture. I'm not expecting much of a change in 2pm TWD, jmho, frequently wrong!

[Brent]

WHOA. I've been out of the loop pretty much since last night and I'm a bit surprised.

[chris_fit]

IMO I think it needs to slow down before it can get organized.... Yes Yes it looks great from space right now but I don't think they'll (recon) will find to much of anything besides some gusts inside those storms...

Slow Down 91L

[bvigal]

WHOA. I've been out of the loop pretty much since last night and I'm a bit surprised.

Hiya Brent!! Look what happened "While You Were Sleeping"

[fwbbreeze]

WHOA. I've been out of the loop pretty much since last night and I'm a bit surprised.

This kinda thing happens when you live in Alabama.....