Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[MiamiensisWx]

Can any buoy links for buoys just ahead of 91L be posted? Thanks.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The convection is growing in size!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

I think this could become our first large storm of the year.

[Stormcenter]

Okay so what is the deal here with 91L. We have some ProMets saying early this morning it wouldn't or couldn't develop and now we have the NHC sending a recon this afternoon looking for a possible TD. Should we be concerned about 91L becoming Debby?

[bvigal]

41101 56.2 14.6 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101
also 41100 57.9 15.9 a bit high, but further west

[MiamiensisWx]

41101 56.2 14.6 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101
also

Any links to any buoys closer to Barbados?

[BonesXL]

Man, you go to work...thinking a system is done from last night and you take a lunch and log on to S2K and wham this thing is a player again..interesting to see what happens...

[bvigal]

91LINVEST.35kts-1000mb-130N-570W

Thanks, HurricaneMaster! Can you post a link for this, please?

[CronkPSU]

Okay so what is the deal here with 91L. We have some ProMets saying early this morning it wouldn't or couldn't develop and now we have the NHC sending a recon this afternoon looking for a possible TD. Should we be concerned about 91L becoming Debby?

not sure if concerned is the right word....but definitely something to keep an eye on, still a really long way from land and a lot of hostile environment still to get through even if it does form

whoops edit: misread your comment, yes I would you need to be concerned that it becomes Debby

[MiamiensisWx]

The TUTT influence to the north of the system has weakened as flatter mid-level ridging has replaced (offset) and weakened the shearing TUTT over the night, allowing for slightly more favorable inflow/outflow diffluent development conditions. Due to some lingering shear, slow development may be most likely. In addition, some of the mid-level shear ahead of 91L has weakened slightly in tandem with the weakening of the TUTT influencing the surrounding conditions, now allowing for a slightly more favorable environment.

In short, I see it rather hard to believe that this won't have some slight and gradual development, at the very least down the road. I would, however, expect to see slow development now start to commence, so a depression shortly is a very real possibility.

[bvigal]

41101 56.2 14.6 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101
also

Any links to any buoys closer to Barbados?

The only other two are
41041 46 14.5
41040 53 14.5
Just type in the buoy number in the same link

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

91LINVEST.35kts-1000mb-130N-570W

Thanks, HurricaneMaster! Can you post a link for this, please?

Link

EDIT: URL changed to hyperlink to reduce scrolling and boost forum morale. -- senorpepr

[gatorcane]

we would expect the TUTT would begin to weaken this time of year....

[Stratosphere747]

http://www.tinyurl.com

[jasons2k]

The convection is growing in size!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

I think this could become our first large storm of the year.

I'm just curious, what's your meteorological reasoning with this other than a rehash of JB's thoughts & hype or the fact they have decided to send in recon? It's a small ball of convection that most of the globals dissipate in a few days - same as with Chris.

I don't think a temporary burst of convection translates to "our first large storm."

[gatorcane]

The convection is growing in size!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

I think this could become our first large storm of the year.

I'm just curious, what's your meteorological reasoning with this other than a rehash of JB's thoughts & hype or the fact they have decided to send in recon? It's a small ball of convection that most of the globals dissipate in a few days - same as with Chris.

I don't think a temporary burst of convection translates to "our first large storm."

Also typically if a system hasn't developed before getting into the Eastern Caribbean it will not develop - chances are against this system from doing anything more than flaring for a bit.

[mempho]

Well, not exactly hard science here, but I guess this thing will develop since I'm heading to S. Florida on Friday. I'm a hurricane magnet.

[Derek Ortt]

things can develop in the E Carib, and quite often

this one should not be one of those however

[ConvergenceZone]

The convection is growing in size!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

I think this could become our first large storm of the year.

I'm just curious, what's your meteorological reasoning with this other than a rehash of JB's thoughts & hype or the fact they have decided to send in recon? It's a small ball of convection that most of the globals dissipate in a few days - same as with Chris.

I don't think a temporary burst of convection translates to "our first large storm."

I don't think I'd call that a small ball of convection. Yesterday's was a "small ball of convection" This bout of convection seems to be bigger in size and still growing the last time I checked(but the floater is down at the moment).

[MiamiensisWx]

I don't think a temporary burst of convection translates to "our first large storm."

I agree, but I wouldn't call this burst of convection "temporary" this time (and NOT because of Bastardi's thoughts). Overall, the system is showing signs of more permanent, slow consolidation due to a slight decrease in mid-level shear over it and some abatement of drier air. The TUTT to the north of the system has weakened, and so has shear from a nearby (now slowly weakening) ULL.

That, along with better diffluence and outflow, hints that this could be a more sustained and permanent burst and consolidation of convection and organization, enhancing the chances of slow development a bit more. See this loop to see my points. I think we may see slow development out of this one due to lingering shear; however, the synoptics still support some gradual development. Either way, it bears watching. It looks like there also MAY be a weak MLC (possibly LLC) established under the convection, but the evidence is too unclear now to make a definate call. Again, either way, bears watching.

[brunota2003]

Thank you senorpepr I honestly think that this maybe a TD, however, I'm still iffy on the whole LLC thing, dont know if there is one or not...but that is why we have RECON!!! And almost everyone gave up on it last night...didn't we learn not to give up on systems from Chris? a change on the TWO that says they don't think it will develop doesn't mean that it won't, and most people tried to send it on the poo-poo train...however, I will say that it does seem the systems this year are challenging the NHC...NHC: It will most likely develop, system does nothing...NHC: it most likely wont develop, system turns into a 55 knot TS... I hope almost every system this year does not do that