Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

#181 Postby **bvigal** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:39 am

I knew it, this is just too strange and too much to learn for them to pass up investigating.

Thunder44 · #182 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:39 am

Wow! TWO comes out almost an hour early!

#183 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:41 am

Wow, things change fast..still not going to get my hopes up

mike815 · #184 Postby **mike815** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:43 am

me either my brain hurts im just confused it has been for the past 2 days a big 360 between these two and yea its really rediculous well see what happ im not getting my hopes up

#185 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:44 am

Dang.....180 degrees from this morning. Just another lesson to those who immediately dismiss a system just because convection has decreased.

miamicanes177 · #186 Postby **miamicanes177** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:45 am

what time is recon departing? 1pm?

#187 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:47 am

mike815 wrote:me either my brain hurts im just confused it has been for the past 2 days a big 360 between these two and yea its really rediculous well see what happ im not getting my hopes up

Last night they basically said this would not develop and upper level winds would not be favorable.

mike815 · #188 Postby **mike815** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:51 am

idk i just dont like these mind games the nhc is doing. i really would like to know what is going on down there. maybe the navy was correct?

'CaneFreak · #189 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:55 am

Recon will investigate the system this afternoon...so we'll see....just be patient...especially you mike815....

#190 Postby **drezee** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:55 am

If a LLC has indeed formed we will likely know from the obs at Barbados before recon even gets there. expect N to NW winds there.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

mike815 · #191 Postby **mike815** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:56 am

ok cane freak but i dont really care if it forms but i could like the nhc to paint a better picture and keep changing there opinion of the system. lol

#192 Postby **bvigal** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:57 am

Hey, this is what makes weather so addictive! Despite all the knowledge and science, Mother Natures will at times do the unexpected. That's why we are all here, if it was 100% predictable, we'd be bored. :wink:

PTrackerLA · #193 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:59 am

Well for the first time since this system has been around it's starting to look interesting IMO. Can't wait to see what recon finds however I don't think this poses any threat to the mainland as the high pressure looks to keep it on a westward course.

#194 Postby **tailgater** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 10:01 am

drezee wrote:If a LLC has indeed formed we will likely know from the obs at Barbados before recon even gets there. expect N to NW winds there.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

If they decide to update, 2 hrs. old now.

Rainband · #195 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 10:01 am

actually if you look at the models it seems to curve at the end of the period.

Thunder44 · #196 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 10:02 am

tailgater wrote:
drezee wrote:If a LLC has indeed formed we will likely know from the obs at Barbados before recon even gets there. expect N to NW winds there.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

If they decide to update, 2 hrs. old now.

Go to the weatherunderground they update the obs faster:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/cgi-b ... y=barbados

As of 40mins ago the winds will were still coming out of the east at 21mph.

Trugunzn · #197 Postby **Trugunzn** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 10:03 am

the further south it stays, the more likely it is to develop because the strongest shear is to the North.

ConvergenceZone · #198 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 10:03 am

HurricaneMaster_PR wrote:TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 9 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THIS
MORNING...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
REACH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR STORM HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

I don't feel so bad about doing so many flip flops regarding this potential system, as the TWO has probably done the same amount. geez...

Trugunzn · #199 Postby **Trugunzn** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 10:04 am

Also the SAL shouldnt be a problem at all because its like couple hundred miles north of it. I think it has a lil better environment then Chris. IMO

#200 Postby **P.K.** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 10:05 am

tailgater wrote:
drezee wrote:If a LLC has indeed formed we will likely know from the obs at Barbados before recon even gets there. expect N to NW winds there.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

If they decide to update, 2 hrs. old now.

The latest METARS from there:

TBPB 091400Z 10016KT 9999 FEW014CB 31/25 Q1013CB N,S AND E/TCU N/JP ALL QUADS=
TBPB 091424Z 09018KT 9999 -TSRA BKN010CB BKN035 27/25 Q1013,RMK CB ALL QUADS=

Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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