Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[Thunder44]

Hey guys catch me up , this did have a LLC ? but it doesn't now? Sure looks like it"s close with inflow from all directions except SW IMHO. JUST judging this from early morn. satellite pics so don't slam me too hard.

Look at my last post. It doesn't appear to have LLC now.

[Sanibel]

If the storm was merely a convection flare along the wave it wouldn't have such a vigorous spin in the burst. The storm is obviously pulling that surface band to its north inward.

It could wipe out still - but that's plainly cyclogenesis folks.

[wxwatcher91]

Believe it not, this comes from 2005's August (19th, to be exact!!).

Yes, I posted a little while back about the fact that if there is any competition between 2006 and 2005, August would be the time to catch up since 2005 actually had a quiet August relative to the rest of the season

[bvigal]

Hiya, Sanibel!!
Floater 2 position has been updated and zoomed.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
(just a few frames left to catch up in new position)

Edit: this convection seems to be moving a bit north of west, or else it's building more to north due to shear

[drezee]

There were 2 ship reports at 12z that where south and southeast of this system, respectively. They both reported ENE winds, which indicates no LLC.

SHIP S 1200 11.30 -55.80 199 173 70 8.9

SHIP S 1200 13.30 -52.20 246 108 70 11.7

Trues, but......

V2EX reported at 0600 as well and reported a water temp of 74 degrees when it should have been closer to 84...next ob no water temp...Not much confidence in that ship report...hey but it all we have untill later today like I said....Thank You Barbados...

[HURAKAN]

We need more volcanic islands in the tropical Atlantic!!!

[TheEuropean]

NRL now with winds to 30kt, presssure 1009 mb:

[Sanibel]

30kt with well-defined center burst - no LLC, eh???

[Thunder44]

It's on the backup site:

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

The NRL site still doesn't show the invest.

[bvigal]

Yes, I think we're seeing a rapid change of opinion on this system. I bet the recon goes as scheduled today, just to see what they might learn about this.

[SouthFloridawx]

Why is Invest 91L on the Navy's back up page but, not on the main page?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Main

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Back up?

[HURAKAN]

since yesterday

[MWatkins]

Hey just an FYI...for some reason it is not on the normal servers yet but they did run the 12Z models...interestingly enough...initilized at 30 knots...here are the initialization points:

13.0N 55.4W 30 knots 1009mb

MW

[TheEuropean]

Why is Invest 91L on the Navy's back up page but, not on the main page?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Main

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Back up?

NRL has sometimes problems with the main site. Now backup site is down

[Thunder44]

I guess TPC might be changing their minds about this not developing again. But we won't really know until the next TWO.

[SouthFloridawx]

The 06Z GFDL was run on 91L


But, it's not on the Quikscat page
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/cgi ... t_storm.pl

[SouthFloridawx]

Most likely they are tracking this as an internal invest is my best guess until it gets better organized, as it seems it might possibly be getting. We'll have to wait and see what that is convection does and if it is still being sheared as the last couple of days.

One interesting thing to note is I looked the mid to upper level winds and they were a good 10kts higher last night than this graphic shows.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8wvir.html

Could the shear have dropped and they weren't expecting it?

The shear it was being affected by yesterday was coming from the south.

[Aquawind]

Why is Invest 91L on the Navy's back up page but, not on the main page?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Main

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Back up?

That site has some real issues this year and the backup often is working better than the main page... whacked.

[flhurricaneguy]

what time is recon heading out?

[HURAKAN]

17Z, arrives 18Z.