Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[Thunder44]

The question is,will recon go this afternoon?

I doubt it. It doesn't appear to be anything more than a tropical wave interacting with ULL at this point.

[HURAKAN]

The question is,will recon go this afternoon?

Is RECON plane in St. Croix?

[cycloneye]

The question is,will recon go this afternoon?

Does the RECON plane remained in St. Croix?

Yes at St Croix,as the plan of the day said yesterday departure time is at 17:00z reaching the system at 18:00z.

[wxman57]

Here are a couple of shots of 91L. First is a McIDAS image of the main squall. I don't think there's any LLC, though there is a vorticity center aloft:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby12.gif

And here's a GARP plot of surface obs with satellite overlay:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby13.gif

91L will be moving into increasingly hostile conditions aloft over the next 24-48 hours. Looks like it'll be ripped apart.

[Aquawind]

If the low as defined as the last couple days it would fly with this convection blowup and close proximity to the islands.. They may still fly because of the proximity to the islands and the fast movement.. but unlikely unless that convection really expands and continues to show firing cold tops.. Tomorrow is possible even if the enviroment is marginal simply because of the proximity to land. They have shown a proactive conservative side if land is threatened in the past..

[HURAKAN]

I think this sums this up!!!

[Jam151]

wow.....all those worthless invests and they decide to ignore 91L altogether?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wouldn't 91L's fast movement make shear a little less of a problem?

[HURAKAN]

Believe it not, this comes from 2005's August (19th, to be exact!!).

[HURAKAN]

Wouldn't 91L's fast movement make shear a little less of a problem?

If 91L is moving toward the west at 25, and the shear is moving to the east, then the movement is worsening the shear.

If 91L is moving toward the west at 25, and the shear is moving to the west also, then the shear is less of a problem.

In an easy way to say it, that's how it works.

[Thunder44]

Wouldn't 91L's fast movement make shear a little less of a problem?

I don't think 91L is moving that fast anymore. It's heading towards an area of W to SW shear, so it's moving in the direction opposite to the upper-level wind flow.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Thanks. Which way is the shear moving now?

[HURAKAN]

Thanks. Which way is the shear moving now?

91L heading west

Shear heading east

Bottomline, not good for development!!!

I remember that in 2003, Ana didn't put much attention to the shear because it was moving with the shear, but 91L is experiencing the shear like a fighter, head on!!!

[bvigal]

This from NWS San Juan, which Luis posted on the last page, perfectly describes this, and the convection being seen right now:

MONSOONAL TROUGH SEGMENT AND EMBEDDED LOW CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC THIS MORNING... WITH A SW TO NE TILT OF AXIS ROUGHLY CENTERED ALONG 54 WEST. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OF SAL FROM THE NW AND W... AND UNTIL RECENTLY... STABLE SOUTH ATLANTIC AIR INGESTED INTO SOUTH SIDE OF MONSOON TROUGH... CONTINUE TO DENY ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF WARM DEEP WATER FROM NBC RING EDDIES IS SCATTERED ABOUT THE EXTREME EAST CARIB AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE WINDWARDS... AND THIS MAY OFFER SOME MOISTURE INFLUX FOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES OVER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT A CLASSIC AEW... WE ARE CALLING THIS A TROPICAL WAVE FOR PUBLIC CONSUMPTION... TO AVOID A LONG DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE.

[Sanibel]

Like I said last night, watch for a red-signature center burst in the same area where Chris boosted. People write these things off too early without considering all factors.

[Thunder44]

There were 2 ship reports at 12z that where south and southeast of this system, respectively. They both reported ENE winds, which indicates no LLC.

SHIP S 1200 11.30 -55.80 199 173 70 8.9

SHIP S 1200 13.30 -52.20 246 108 70 11.7

[beachbum_al]

The nhc seems to think this is not much right now.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 090933
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED AUG 9 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN BRIEF SQUALLS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THURSDAY.

[tailgater]

Hey guys catch me up , this did have a LLC ? but it doesn't now? Sure looks like it"s close with inflow from all directions except SW IMHO. JUST judging this from early morn. satellite pics so don't slam me too hard.

[ConvergenceZone]

damn, when I saw the convection on the Floater, I got all excited this morning, until I read that it probably won't develop and condictions weren't good for development....

I just want something to track, going out to sea is fine, just give me something to track...

[bvigal]

Hey guys catch me up , this did have a LLC ? but it doesn't now? Sure looks like it"s close with inflow from all directions except SW IMHO. JUST judging this from early morn. satellite pics so don't slam me too hard.

The answers you seek are on pages 5, 6 and 7...