Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[mobilebay]

I'm suprised by the complete 180 that TPC did from on the 10:30 TWO from the 5:30 TWO. Obviously the system is not organzing tonight, but I thought they would still leave more room for development.

I thought the same when I read it. However, after looking at the IR2 I don't see any low level cloud elements moving into the system like before. So the Low Pressure system may have dissipated?

[Thunder44]

I'm suprised by the complete 180 that TPC did from on the 10:30 TWO from the 5:30 TWO. Obviously the system is not organzing tonight, but I thought they would still leave more room for development.

I thought the same when I read it. However, after looking at the IR2 I don't see any low level cloud elements moving into the system like before. So the Low Pressure system may have dissipated?

It appears to have. The ULL of NE of Puerto Rico appears weakening but is still be there, so there may be too much shear for this to develop again.

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm suprised by the complete 180 that TPC did from on the 10:30 TWO from the 5:30 TWO. Obviously the system is not organzing tonight, but I thought they would still leave more room for development.

I thought the same when I read it. However, after looking at the IR2 I don't see any low level cloud elements moving into the system like before. So the Low Pressure system may have dissipated?

It appears to have. The ULL of NE of Puerto Rico appears weakening but is still be there, so there may be too much shear for this to develop again.

I don't think that ULL had anything to do with the demise of this low level circulation... I think the past day and a half most of the time it has been fighting dry air and shear. Today we saw a flare up but, going back and looking at the imagry it seems like there was still shear.

If you look at this upper-mid level wind maps it has been taking southerly shear.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8wvir.html

[marcane_1973]

Yeah this invest i am afraid is over. The Atlantic looks sooo sad for even this early in August. I think it will be a while maybe not even until September till atmospheric conditions can even support a minimal 75 mph Hurricane. I would just be thrilled to see a healthy TS at this point unlike Chris.

[Bailey1777]

When a LLC dissapates but you still have the convection what does it take and what do you look for, for another LLC to form. Hope you understand what I am asking.

[Bailey1777]

Bouy 41040

Wind-ENE
Wind Speed-21.4
Gust-25.3
Pressure-29.85F

[Bailey1777]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N51W MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. THIS LOW CENTER IS WEAKENING WITH TIME AND
ITS THREAT TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WITH TIME. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W. A CELL OF
WEAKENING PRECIPITATION EXISTS FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN
52W AND 53W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING
ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM STILL IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS
IN SQUALLS ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

[mobilebay]

Convection has increased this morning with 91L. However this new convection seems to be West of the wave axis. Anyone have any thoughts.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

[Bailey1777]

Could a new surface low be forming?

[mobilebay]

Could a new surface low be forming?

I don't know. I don't see any indications on satellite. It's hard to tell though without Visible imagery.

[mobilebay]

It is interesting to note that on the 06Z surface analysis that TAFB has removed the surface low!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/TSA_latestBW.gif

[Bailey1777]

Even bigger blow up. Its a hell of alot better looking than last night and it has been persistent. Wonder what they will say at 5:00.

[Bailey1777]

Yeah they wrote trop. wave but not near where it's at.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its moving through the tutt area. The eastly winds with the tropical wave is moving against strong northwestly winds. Which is forming converges which forms convection. This system is very disorganized. Heck theres nothing in the Atlatnic worth noting. Look at the western pacific.

[mobilebay]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED AUG 9 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN BRIEF SQUALLS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THURSDAY.

A BROAD NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES IS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS LIMITED AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND ADJACENT WATERS ARE
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

[Thunder44]

I'm suprised by the complete 180 that TPC did from on the 10:30 TWO from the 5:30 TWO. Obviously the system is not organzing tonight, but I thought they would still leave more room for development.

I thought the same when I read it. However, after looking at the IR2 I don't see any low level cloud elements moving into the system like before. So the Low Pressure system may have dissipated?

It appears to have. The ULL of NE of Puerto Rico appears weakening but is still be there, so there may be too much shear for this to develop again.

I don't think that ULL had anything to do with the demise of this low level circulation... I think the past day and a half most of the time it has been fighting dry air and shear. Today we saw a flare up but, going back and looking at the imagry it seems like there was still shear.

If you look at this upper-mid level wind maps it has been taking southerly shear.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8wvir.html

No, the LLC was lost due to lack of low-level dymanics. The ULL is just creating more unfavorable upper-level winds to allow this to develop now.

[kenl01]

I'm not surprised at all concerning the lack of organization with this system. There's been a pattern of unfavorable environmental conditions since July and it still exists. A few days ago, NHC was indicating a "potential" depression from this system within the next two days. Then two days later, it still hadn't formed. Now the statement was reading it "still" has some potential for development. That already shows that the chance has decreased for a TC. Now the chance for a depression is no longer mentioned at all - just as I expected.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 091035
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
635 AM AST WED AUG 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...
BACK SIDE OF TUTT LOW TO OUR NE DROPPING IN ON THE LOCAL AREA
THIS MORNING...PROMOTING SINKING MOTION...AND COMBINING WITH THE
DOMINANT SAL CONTINUING TO STREAM THROUGH THE REGION TO PRODUCE A
DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE. PW VALUES CONTINUE TO PLUMMET BELOW 1.5
INCHES OVERNIGHT PER SOUNDER OBSERVATIONS. LITTLE MOISTURE APPEARS
UPSTREAM IN THE SHORT TERM...AND GFS FORECASTING A DRYING TREND IN
THE LOW LEVELS TODAY. A DRY HAZY AND BREEZY FORECAST IS THUS IN
ORDER FOR THE DAY AS THE MID SUMMER DROUGHT CONTINUES.

MONSOONAL TROUGH SEGMENT AND EMBEDDED LOW CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...WITH A SW TO NE
TILT OF AXIS ROUGHLY CENTERED ALONG 54 WEST. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
OF SAL FROM THE NW AND W...AND UNTIL RECENTLY...STABLE SOUTH
ATLANTIC AIR INGESTED INTO SOUTH SIDE OF MONSOON TROUGH...CONTINUE
TO DENY ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF WARM DEEP WATER
FROM NBC RING EDDIES IS SCATTERED ABOUT THE EXTREME EAST CARIB AND
TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE WINDWARDS...AND THIS MAY OFFER SOME
MOISTURE INFLUX FOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES OVER TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT A CLASSIC
AEW...WE ARE CALLING THIS A TROPICAL WAVE FOR PUBLIC
CONSUMPTION...TO AVOID A LONG DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE. THIS "WAVE-LIKE" FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH AEJ SEGMENT ACROSS THE TOP TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FOR ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS...AND LIKELY A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STREAM OF SAL AND ASSOCIATED AFRICAN DUST.

SYNPOTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC PAST
TWO WEEKS HAS ALLOWED FOR STRONG POSITIVE TILTING OF AEW AND
STRETCHING AND SHEARING OF NV WAVE ENERGY...YIELDING NON CLASSIC
WAVE STRUCTURE. WE HAVE FELT SOMEWHAT FORCED TO REFER TO THESE
SHEARED VORT LOBES OR PIECES OF THE WAVES AS TROPICAL WAVES IN
LOCAL PRODUCTS TO SIMPLIFY EXPLANATION.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING E TO W ACROSS ATLC MAINTAIN A
RELATIVELY ZONAL AEJ ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AND COMBINING
WITH PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH TO MAINTAIN A STRONGER THAN NORMAL
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. RECENT SSMI AND QUIKSCAT
PASSES...A VERY FEW LOCAL OBSERVATIONS...AND MY OBS FROM IN THE
WATER SUGGEST THAT WE HAVE BEEN UNDERFORECASTING LOCAL MARINE
CONDITIONS TFOR PORTIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. I HAVE DECIDED TO
USE GFS90 WINDS AS OPPOSED TO GFS40 FOR MARINE FORECAST AS THIS
HIGHER SIGMA LEVEL FORECAST FROM GFS90 SEEMS TO BE MORE ACCURATE.
A BRIEF DECREASE IN WIND AND SEAS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...DOWN AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM YESTERDAY... BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE
IS SEEN WITH NEXT APPROACHING "WAVE" ON TUESDAY. THIS WIND SURGE
AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
CARIB WATERS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THAN THE ATLC...AS "WAVE" PASSES
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A MORE TYPICAL 15 TO 20 KNOT TRADE
WIND FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
ALLOWING LOCAL SEAS TO DECREASE TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS. SEA YOU IN
THE WATER.


Above is the discussion from the NWS San Juan about this system.

[HURAKAN]

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAD BEEN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE. THE LOW CENTER HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING ONLY AN
OPEN TROPICAL WAVE. THE POSSIBILITIES OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT ARE BECOMING FEWER WITH TIME.
THE WAVE STILL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN BRIEF SQUALLS ACROSS SOME AREAS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 55W AND 57W.

[cycloneye]

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAD BEEN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE. THE LOW CENTER HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING ONLY AN
OPEN TROPICAL WAVE. THE POSSIBILITIES OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT ARE BECOMING FEWER WITH TIME.
THE WAVE STILL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN BRIEF SQUALLS ACROSS SOME AREAS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 55W AND 57W.

Yes,some showers are expected here in Puerto Rico tommorow with some gusty winds,but that will be it as the wave passes mostly to our south.