Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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mtm4319
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#61 Postby mtm4319 » Tue Aug 08, 2006 9:51 pm

IMO if it's not considered an invest anymore, it shouldn't be in the topic title.
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Sanibel
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#62 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 08, 2006 9:53 pm

Hang out. Although it has entered a dry airmass it is also entering warmer waters and the same area where Chris boosted.
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#63 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 08, 2006 9:54 pm

mtm4319 wrote:IMO if it's not considered an invest anymore, it shouldn't be in the topic title.


However,as long invest 91L is at the navy sites,the title stays.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
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#64 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Aug 08, 2006 9:55 pm

Things can change very fast in the tropics; for example Chris decided to disappate instead of strengthen into a possible hurricane. Not saying this will pull a Chris, but right now we'll just have to wait and see.
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#65 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:01 pm

cycloneye wrote:A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THERE ARE NO LONGER ANY
INDICATIONS OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM....AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY.



Well, I guess Derek nailed this one............
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mobilebay
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#66 Postby mobilebay » Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:03 pm

Boy you talk about changing your tune quickly. Here is the 1030 outlook...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THERE ARE NO LONGER ANY
INDICATIONS OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM....AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY.
Now here is the 5:30 Outlook...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND IS
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER
TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. :lol:
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#67 Postby Stormavoider » Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:05 pm

=no development
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#68 Postby Bailey1777 » Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:11 pm

That's outrageous nothing has changed that much from 5:30. They should have killed it then if this is the case.
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#69 Postby Bailey1777 » Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:13 pm

By nothing has changed I wasn't talking about convection I meant as far as a LLC. If it's not there now it wasn't there then.
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#70 Postby Bailey1777 » Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:14 pm

Sorry Derek I shouldn't have doubted you.
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mobilebay
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#71 Postby mobilebay » Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:16 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:Sorry Derek I shouldn't have doubted you.

:lol:
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MGC
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#72 Postby MGC » Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:19 pm

91L has not had a well defined, if any surface circulation for some time now. I noted this in a posting I made earlier today. I don't understand all the hype here, this system has been falling apart now for a while, yet many of y'all insist that development will happen with the next burst of convection. I noticed the same thing with Chris. I was never bullish on Chris and I'm not bullish on 91L. Too much shear and dry air, it ain't gonna happen.......MGC
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mobilebay
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#73 Postby mobilebay » Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:20 pm

Deleted because I stuck my foot in my mouth.
Last edited by mobilebay on Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#74 Postby Bailey1777 » Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:22 pm

Maybe because the NHC who I thought was supposed to be our hurricane authority did not see it that way.
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#75 Postby jhamps10 » Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:52 pm

no the weather channel is the hurricane authority. :jk:
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mtm4319
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#76 Postby mtm4319 » Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:
mtm4319 wrote:IMO if it's not considered an invest anymore, it shouldn't be in the topic title.


However,as long invest 91L is at the navy sites,the title stays.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi


Very well - I thought someone had posted that it was removed.
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#77 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Aug 08, 2006 11:08 pm

mtm4319 wrote:Very well - I thought someone had posted that it was removed.

The main NRL site i'm using hasn't shown the invest for 3-4 hours. I refreshed the page and opened and new one and nothing is changed. The back-up site may have it still.
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#78 Postby sevenleft » Tue Aug 08, 2006 11:11 pm

Poof.
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#79 Postby Bailey1777 » Tue Aug 08, 2006 11:34 pm

Sorry I'm a die hard...

Buoy 41040

Wind-ENE
Wind Speed-21.4
Gust-27.2
Pressure-29.89F
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#80 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 08, 2006 11:39 pm

I'm suprised by the complete 180 that TPC did from on the 10:30 TWO from the 5:30 TWO. Obviously the system is not organzing tonight, but I thought they would still leave more room for development.
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