Here's a recent (very large) picture of 91L. Just one or two weakening thunderstorms. It appears to have opened up into a wave. Going downhill fast:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby12.gif
Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3
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wxman57 wrote:Here's a recent (very large) picture of 91L. Just one or two weakening thunderstorms. It appears to have opened up into a wave. Going downhill fast:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby12.gif
Man, only a few hours ago it looked like it might have become a depressoin later tonight or in the morning, now it looks like what's left of it is falling apart.
Maybe we are jinxing it. Perhaps we should all just ignore it, lol....
If it could talk it would say, "ha ha, fooled ya again!"
NEXT!!!
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cycloneye
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A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THERE ARE NO LONGER ANY
INDICATIONS OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM....AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY.
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THERE ARE NO LONGER ANY
INDICATIONS OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM....AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY.
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SouthFloridawx
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Dean4Storms
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I think more than anything the models refusal to develop this system has a large part in the sudden tune change from 5:30 TWO, hope they are right. I don't see how with the absence of visibles they suddenly came to the conclusion myself, it would help if they explained how they came to an abrubt turnaround other than the decrease in convection. A low does not evaporate that quickly.
Last edited by Dean4Storms on Tue Aug 08, 2006 9:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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HurricaneHunter914
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wxman57 wrote:SouthFloridawx wrote:Yeah that TCFA was for nothing...
Tropical Cyclone Falling Apart?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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senorpepr
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I'm going to say this again...
US Navy products are NOT meant for public use. Their product just cause a bunch of you folks to go crazy like a cat near cat nip. Unfortunately, their product was meant as only a "heads up" for the "warfighter" and their "decision makers."
I hate to say this, but the average forecaster producing those products has very limited tropical forecasting experience. Many of the amatures on this site have more experience. I don't mean that as a knock on their abilities nor do I mean it to discredit their work, but unforunately it's the truth. Many of these forecasters have little "passion" for tropical weather and were put into this position.
...of course, that is not always the case. Remember that fine forecasters like Stacy Stewart have USN backgrounds...
US Navy products are NOT meant for public use. Their product just cause a bunch of you folks to go crazy like a cat near cat nip. Unfortunately, their product was meant as only a "heads up" for the "warfighter" and their "decision makers."
I hate to say this, but the average forecaster producing those products has very limited tropical forecasting experience. Many of the amatures on this site have more experience. I don't mean that as a knock on their abilities nor do I mean it to discredit their work, but unforunately it's the truth. Many of these forecasters have little "passion" for tropical weather and were put into this position.
...of course, that is not always the case. Remember that fine forecasters like Stacy Stewart have USN backgrounds...
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SouthFloridawx
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cycloneye
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I dont know if I change the title to=Strong Tropical Wave East of Windwards,or leave the Invest 91L E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3.
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SouthFloridawx
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I think it was taken off the main page for a reason.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
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cycloneye
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senorpepr wrote:cycloneye wrote:I dont know if I change the title to=Strong Tropical Wave East of Windwards,or leave the Invest 91L E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3.
I would leave the 91L in the title as most people would recognize that...
Ok,I just put the title back.
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