Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[Extremeweatherguy]

none of these models are really right for this kind of situation. Also, they all contradict what I have heard from many pro mets...that this is going into the Caribbean.

Who?

57 is the only one, at least from this site that mentioned the possiblity of whatever this is, going into the Caribbean.

I have seen one or two TV mets mention it over the last few days. Also, Jeff Master's said on his blog that it could possibly be going into the Caribbean. Then, as you had mentioned, wxman57 also said that it may go that way.

Have these ideas changed since this morning? Is the ridge suppose to now weaken or retreat east? As of yesterday and this morning I thought it wasn't. Any new pro met opinions?


From Jeff Master's blog:

The wave should move through the Lesser Antilles Islands on Thursday morning. At this point, if I had travel plans in the Caribbean, I wouldn't change them, since any development of this system is likely to be slow. However, I would check the situation frequently, as surprises are common. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the wave on Wednesday at 2pm EDT.

Oh yeah..JB also thinks this will head west the next 5 days (as of his evening post), but he is not sure if it will survive.

[Derek Ortt]

and even the model guidance is not intended for the public (and most is not disimanated via the usual messages), but is intended for the mets

[ROCK]

none of these models are really right for this kind of situation. Also, they all contradict what I have heard from many pro mets...that this is going into the Caribbean.

Who?

57 is the only one, at least from this site that mentioned the possiblity of whatever this is, going into the Caribbean.

I have heard also that this small cloud will be entering the carib..... if it keeps its present speed and stays west it won't take long for those models to shift back to the left.

[senorpepr]

It isn't public in the sense that the public can't or shouldn't use them. It doesn't warn the public not to use them on the About page.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnhcprod.shtml

The whole website is available to everyone.

Let me clarify myself... I'm saying the public CAN'T use the discussions nor will the police show up at someone's door and arrest them for using the discussions. What I am saying is that they are not intented for use by the public and that they are not responsible for any actions taken by the public after using the product.

Matter of fact... in the not so distant past, NHC discussions were labelled for "intergovernmental use only"...

[Extremeweatherguy]

none of these models are really right for this kind of situation. Also, they all contradict what I have heard from many pro mets...that this is going into the Caribbean.

Who?

57 is the only one, at least from this site that mentioned the possiblity of whatever this is, going into the Caribbean.

I have heard also that this small cloud will be entering the carib..... if it keeps its present speed and stays west it won't take long for those models to shift back to the left.

[Stratosphere747]

Rock,

I demand to know which Houston area Met even mentioned the possiblity of a "small cloud" entering the Caribbean....


Models, tracking a wave....

N 18z, S 0z, W 18z, E 0z......

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT01 KNGU 090301
REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/090000ZAUG06//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT01 KNGU)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0N 50.0W TO 15.0N 56.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 GUSTS 30 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13.0N 50.0W HAS BEEN MOVING
WESTERLY FOR THE LAST 72 HOURS. THE SYSTEM MOVED INTO AN AREA OF DRY
AIR INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THE LAST TWO DAYS
AND WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER
THE LOW CENTER INCREASING TROPICAL CYCLONE FEATURES. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TROPCIAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH SHEAR VALUES
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE AREA. SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO A MAJOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS
TIME, HOWEVER EXPECT MODEL GUIDANCE TO ANALYZE THE SYSTEM MORE ACCURATELY
IN THE NEAR FUTURE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AT THE LOW CENTER HAS BEEN
ANALYZED AT 81F(27C). CURRENT MOVEMENT INTO WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE ANTILLES WILL ALSO ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM MOVEMENT
FORECAST IS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100001Z AUG 06.//


I forgot to post the text of the TCFA but here it is now.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Until this can actually gain some persistent convection without the flaring up and flaring down, TD formation appears kinda unlikely at this time.

[SouthFloridawx]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT01 KNGU 090301
REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/090000ZAUG06//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT01 KNGU)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0N 50.0W TO 15.0N 56.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 GUSTS 30 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13.0N 50.0W HAS BEEN MOVING
WESTERLY FOR THE LAST 72 HOURS. THE SYSTEM MOVED INTO AN AREA OF DRY
AIR INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THE LAST TWO DAYS
AND WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER
THE LOW CENTER INCREASING TROPICAL CYCLONE FEATURES. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TROPCIAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH SHEAR VALUES
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE AREA. SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO A MAJOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS
TIME, HOWEVER EXPECT MODEL GUIDANCE TO ANALYZE THE SYSTEM MORE ACCURATELY
IN THE NEAR FUTURE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AT THE LOW CENTER HAS BEEN
ANALYZED AT 81F(27C). CURRENT MOVEMENT INTO WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE ANTILLES WILL ALSO ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM MOVEMENT
FORECAST IS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100001Z AUG 06.//


I forgot to post the text of the TCFA but here it is now.

Do you have a link for that?

[Cyclenall]

I still don't see Invest 91L up on the main NRL site.

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT01 KNGU 090301
REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/090000ZAUG06//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT01 KNGU)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0N 50.0W TO 15.0N 56.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 GUSTS 30 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13.0N 50.0W HAS BEEN MOVING
WESTERLY FOR THE LAST 72 HOURS. THE SYSTEM MOVED INTO AN AREA OF DRY
AIR INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THE LAST TWO DAYS
AND WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER
THE LOW CENTER INCREASING TROPICAL CYCLONE FEATURES. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TROPCIAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH SHEAR VALUES
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE AREA. SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO A MAJOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS
TIME, HOWEVER EXPECT MODEL GUIDANCE TO ANALYZE THE SYSTEM MORE ACCURATELY
IN THE NEAR FUTURE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AT THE LOW CENTER HAS BEEN
ANALYZED AT 81F(27C). CURRENT MOVEMENT INTO WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE ANTILLES WILL ALSO ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM MOVEMENT
FORECAST IS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100001Z AUG 06.//


I forgot to post the text of the TCFA but here it is now.

Do you have a link for that?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/index1.html

[brunota2003]

I still don't see Invest 91L up on the main NRL site.

along with that, the backup site hasnt done the 0000Z update...its still the 1800Z

[cycloneye]

I still don't see Invest 91L up on the main NRL site.

along with that, the backup site hasnt done the 0000Z update...its still the 1800Z

No doubt they are having problems with the sites tonight.

[SouthFloridawx]

Thanks Luis

[Trugunzn]

Its not lookin so good right now.

[calculatedrisk]

91L Aug 9 00:45 IR with isotherms, moving into 28+ degree water tonight.



SST Source:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 9atsst.png

[miamicanes177]

track and intensity:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity1.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[wxman57]

The problem with the BAM models is they probably don't see the large ridge building north of the eastern Caribbean in a few days. That ridge will likely remain north of 91L as it moves west through the Caribbean. Take a look at the dynamic models below. I removed the BAM model plots and just plotted the models that take into account the changing flow pattern in advance of 91L.

Now, looking at 91L tonight, it's pretty pathetic. Looks more like Chris when it was dissipating. I don't think there's too much chance of this developing, maybe 20%. Here are the dynamic models. I'm forecasting it to be near the Yucatan moving due west by late Sunday or Monday, maybe the southern Yucatan.

[Windspeed]

I still don't see Invest 91L up on the main NRL site.

91L is still active on NRL:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_di ... YLE=Frames

[tailgater]

I'm not sure if this was posted yet but!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif