Invest 91L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Damar91]

Living in South Florida, I really don't like any of those models.

[skysummit]

Living in South Florida, I really don't like any of those models.

Oh don't worry...they'll change many, many, MANY more times.

[Wx_Warrior]

Man...that's really early to start talking about models. Give it a chance fellas. There's nothing we can do about it....

[Dean4Storms]

Also noticing UL outflow going both north and south now from the center!!!!

[bvigal]

Yeah, especially since we don't even know if some of those ARE models. That's why I asked the question. Maybe something was wrong with the graphic?

Oh, and let me mention again, if you live where I do, and something's at 50W, it's not too early to be looking at models. Mainland, for sure. They'll change a lot.

[skysummit]

Hey....the blow up is still growing now with colder cloud tops near the center of the ball.

[Damar91]

Man...that's really early to start talking about models. Give it a chance fellas. There's nothing we can do about it....

I didn't say I was going to lose any sleep over it, just making a comment.

[skysummit]

Yeah, especially since we don't even know if some of those ARE models. That's why I asked the question. Maybe something was wrong with the graphic?

They might be consensus models. They look close to the GCON and BCON runs that I have.

[Dean4Storms]

Derek, have you noted the UL flow from the convection now going south and north from the center?

RAMSDIS shows it up well on its floater...........

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html

[sealbach]

thanks bvigal...i was concerned about the divers out there...I was thinking they would get tired and was also wondering if they ate their sandwiches while resting on the buoy...but also wondering how they kept their sandwiches dry.

[bvigal]

Thanks, skysummit. Never seen them before on that particular product. Since the GFDL is so old, it may not be as accurate as the others right now.

[Damar91]

thanks bvigal...i was concerned about the divers out there...I was thinking they would get tired and was also wondering if they ate their sandwiches while resting on the buoy...but also wondering how they kept their sandwiches dry.

[Derek Ortt]

I see no signs at all of southerly outflow, and not much on the north

but I do see increased low-level convergence, even on IR

[Derek Ortt]

I also think this may spit out an outflow boundary in the not too distant future on the NW side, so this is not organizing quickly

[bvigal]

thanks bvigal...i was concerned about the divers out there...I was thinking they would get tired and was also wondering if they ate their sandwiches while resting on the buoy...but also wondering how they kept their sandwiches dry.

Well I figured you knew it was a joke, but did want to answer your original question!

[tgenius]

91L sure looks to be getting some convection going.. looks healthiest i've seen it today.

[mike815]

yes and getting healthier these storms like chris this year have fought hard and over came a lot to form this one looks to do the same thing perhapes. they refuse to poof out

[Dean4Storms]

I see no signs at all of southerly outflow, and not much on the north

but I do see increased low-level convergence, even on IR

The more ball like appearance is showing a sign to me that the shear is not present over it currently.

[SouthFloridawx]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Shear is droping fast over the system...Now 10 to 12 knots over the system.

The tutt is at 57 west...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html