Noaa's August Hurricane Outlook=12-15 named storms

[Stephanie]

Great thread will and great job providing the information everyone!

[mempho]

ENSO neutral means the Pacific is "normal" and there is no El Nino or La Nina.

Thanks Mempho.... what confuses me though, is that the temperatures in the NorthWest Pacific (SE Asia) are showing signs of warming.

Some people believe an El Nino is about to start. Even if one starts tommorrow, though, there is usually a significant lag before the El Nino conditions set up. That lag is usually something like two months which will be too long a time to affect the heart of the hurricane season which is why the outlook doesn't seem to be concerned with El Nino (because now it is too late). We do have the SOI indicators that show El Nino readings but I'll let a pro met handle that one since it's out of my area of expertise.

[dwg71]

My updated numbers are 14/6/2 - I dont think we'll get another named storm till the last week of August.

[DESTRUCTION5]

My updated numbers are 14/6/2 - I dont think we'll get another named storm till the last week of August.

I stand at 17/8/5..I say by next tues(8/15)

[cycloneye]

What I see from the people that may see this NOAA outlook being said in the media is that complacency may be in hand with many,as they see a less wild season.

[HurricaneBill]

Will,this thread will not be locked because when the NOAA'S August outlook is released,it will be posted here.By the way,TWC will cover the new conference.

Unless they decide to air a morning edition of "Storm Stories".

[theworld]

ENSO neutral means the Pacific is "normal" and there is no El Nino or La Nina.

Thanks Mempho.... what confuses me though, is that the temperatures in the NorthWest Pacific (SE Asia) are showing signs of warming.

Some people believe an El Nino is about to start. Even if one starts tommorrow, though, there is usually a significant lag before the El Nino conditions set up. That lag is usually something like two months which will be too long a time to affect the heart of the hurricane season which is why the outlook doesn't seem to be concerned with El Nino (because now it is too late). We do have the SOI indicators that show El Nino readings but I'll let a pro met handle that one since it's out of my area of expertise.

Mempho, thanks again for taking the time.

Any Pro Mets on the board that can add anything to Memphos response, please do.
'
Thanks