Invest 91L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[BensonTCwatcher]

From the RAMSDIS loop, it appears that there is also low level inflo from the southwest, and the beginnings of some "ascent" . This is a "perfect" system for this board since at this phase we could be talking poof or Cat 5 But on a serious note, if the system stays shallow, the more northern the track may be. It seems that if this system "slides" northward under the upper level currents. the conditions NE of Hisapanola would favor a real danger to the CONUS. In other words a shallow persistent circualtion which does not get sheared by the ULL would not be a good thing later...

[Sanibel]

Well, we got the center burst I was watching for. Just the weakened, inhibited variety of a seriously suppressed tropical environment.

Can't tell if this is too weak to build convection or will be easily wiped out by the nearest synoptic.


Some thoughts - Atlantic is spitting out swirling systems right now from the ITCZ. They are just too weak to form, but the chain has started. This makes me wonder if favorability will suddenly turn on and make real storms out of these repeating systems?

It seems, right now, we are seeing a continuation of disturbance propagation similar to recent years - only this year there is an opposite supporting environment for robust development and convection.

Will this be broken up by the first biggy?


PS - This system is fully structurally underway as far as west wind, LLC etc.

[superfly]

This looks terrible but the LLC still looks intact, if barely.

[Dean4Storms]

I agree with wxman57's comment - one thunderstorm does not make a depression or tropical storm - it's just a disturbance at this time, that's all - no "Debby" comments needed here...

Frank

I see more than one TStorm now blowing up around the center. Your comment would be true if there wasn't a LLC in place and one lone TStorm sitting there.

[Derek Ortt]

does not look like there is a LLC any longer

maybe it will slowly redevelop, it's possible, but not probable

[BensonTCwatcher]

This is firing convection ( more than a T-storm) I would not call it sustained at this point, or even strong.

[Derek Ortt]

the convergence only appears very marginally better than yesterday (and that is being generous, it may not have improved any)

[BensonTCwatcher]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

use the zoom to a 6 image loop. The circ looks open on the NE side to me. The question remains, will the convention/inflow loop get going?

[ConvergenceZone]

Arghhhhhhhhhhhhh


Maybe we should just all take a vacation and come back the first of September and see if anything is getting ready to develop in the Atlantic at that time... Perhaps then the conditions will be much improved.

[HURAKAN]

VS



Comparison between 91L and TD 3 (Chris). Until 91L looks something like TD 3, no depression or storm will form.

[flhurricaneguy]

that just looks sad

[Dean4Storms]

Agree Hurakan, that convection near the apparent center must grow and deepen.

But you must compare apples to apples not WV to IR......


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[Derek Ortt]

we may be able to play taps with this, latest visibles are not showing much of a wave axis even (not to be unexpected since this was not origionally a wave even)

[Thunder44]

Why are you using a water vapor image against an infrared image? I'm suggesting this wave looks better than Chris. But storms always look better on infrared images than water vapor images.

[Derek Ortt]

kids,

a quiet first 2 weeks of August does not mean a dead season. 1998 and 1999 also had very quiet early Augusts (far more so than this year... there was not even a trace of a disturbance)

[Dean4Storms]

kids,

a quiet first 2 weeks of August does not mean a dead season. 1998 and 1999 also had very quiet early Augusts (far more so than this year... there was not even a trace of a disturbance)

So true, if long-range GFS is to be trusted come mid-Aug on will become much busier in the tropics.

[HURAKAN]

Why are you using a water vapor image against an infrared image? I'm suggesting this wave looks better than Chris. But storms always look better on infrared images than water vapor images.

VS



HAPPY!!!

[Derek Ortt]

but for the next 5 days, we may need to get ready for June-like activity. No model shows anything even threatening to form into a TD, except maybe the CMC near Bermuda

[Stormcenter]

but for the next 5 days, we may need to get ready for June-like activity. No model shows anything even threatening to form into a TD, except maybe the CMC near Bermuda

Excellent news.

[Thunder44]

Yes, I'm happy HURKAN! But 91L if it ever develops will likely be a smaller system. But to be honest despite an increase in convection today, I can't make out a LLC anymore. The system seems to suffering from a lack of inflow.