Noaa's August Hurricane Outlook=12-15 named storms

[willjnewton]

I hope that this thread has NOT been posted which I do NOT think it has but what do you all think that the noaa people might say at there 11:ooam update to the hurricane season and when the 11:oo update has come this thread will be locked okay, thanks

[Anonymous]

It is 11:30 a.m., not 11 a.m. And they will probably say the same thing they said at 5:30 a.m.

[willjnewton]

what did they say at 5:3o am

[cycloneye]

It is 11:30 a.m., not 11 a.m. And they will probably say the same thing they said at 5:30 a.m.

Will is talking about the August NOAA outlook for the 2006 hurricane season that will be released at 11 AM EDT.

[Stratusxpeye]

Yes not the TWO or other weather forecasts and outlooks. Hes talking about the numbers and seasonal outlook. I'm sure they'll show numbers going down and a less active season as it ends to be shaping up that way.

[Anonymous]

It is 11:30 a.m., not 11 a.m. And they will probably say the same thing they said at 5:30 a.m.

Will is talking about the August NOAA outlook for the 2006 hurricane season that will be released at 11 AM EDT.

Oh, OK.

Well, in that case, I believe their numbers will stay the same. With 3 storms already, their original numbers seem to be spot on.

[cycloneye]

Will,this thread will not be locked because when the NOAA'S August outlook is released,it will be posted here.By the way,TWC will cover the new conference.

[willjnewton]

okay thankyou cycloneye

[cycloneye]

okay thankyou cycloneye

Will,I will add at the title of the thread to let know the members that the NOAA outlook is posted.

[miamicanes177]

i thought the oulook was thursday?

[wxman57]

The NOAA seasonal forecast team basically studied under Dr. Gray. They look at the same parameters as Dr. Gray. Therefore, the only conclusion they can reach is that they have overestimated the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes in there early-season prediction. They'll drop the projected numbers by about 2. Still, an above "normal" season is likely.

But it only takes one hurricane to make for a very bad season. The first storm of 1992 didn't form until mid August (Andrew). Only 7 storms formed that year, but no one could argue that the season wasn't significant.

[cycloneye]

i thought the oulook was thursday?

I think you are talking about thursday's NOAA'S ENSO update for August.

[jlauderdal]

The NOAA seasonal forecast team basically studied under Dr. Gray. They look at the same parameters as Dr. Gray. Therefore, the only conclusion they can reach is that they have overestimated the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes in there early-season prediction. They'll drop the projected numbers by about 2. Still, an above "normal" season is likely.

But it only takes one hurricane to make for a very bad season. The first storm of 1992 didn't form until mid August (Andrew). Only 7 storms formed that year, but no one could argue that the season wasn't significant.

there can be one storm and if it hits you there might as well have been 30. i still dont understand the major press these forecasts from gray, noaa, etc recieve. What is the difference if they say 5 or 30? It doesn't change anyones preperation or lack of because nobody knows where they are hitting. I would prefer to see more money poured into NHC for actual track and intensity forecasting of exisiting systems and less on trying to figure out how many storms will ocur in a given season.

[cycloneye]

In a few minutes the NOAA outlook will be released and posted here so stay tuned here.If you want to see the press conference TWC will carrie it,or if you want to hear it IPR radio will do so.

[wxboy222]

full info here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=87942

we will carry video too!

[cycloneye]

full info here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=87942

we will carry video too!

Ok very good about the video.

[x-y-no]

C-Span will carry it as well.

[wxboy222]

that's where we are getting it from

[cycloneye]

Chad Myers at CNN just announced it will do so also.

[dwg71]

The NOAA seasonal forecast team basically studied under Dr. Gray. They look at the same parameters as Dr. Gray. Therefore, the only conclusion they can reach is that they have overestimated the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes in there early-season prediction. They'll drop the projected numbers by about 2. Still, an above "normal" season is likely.

But it only takes one hurricane to make for a very bad season. The first storm of 1992 didn't form until mid August (Andrew). Only 7 storms formed that year, but no one could argue that the season wasn't significant.

there can be one storm and if it hits you there might as well have been 30. i still dont understand the major press these forecasts from gray, noaa, etc recieve. What is the difference if they say 5 or 30? It doesn't change anyones preperation or lack of because nobody knows where they are hitting. I would prefer to see more money poured into NHC for actual track and intensity forecasting of exisiting systems and less on trying to figure out how many storms will ocur in a given season.

I respectfully disagree, these forecasts are important. They add the overall level of preparedness. Yes, the tracking and forecasting of individual storms is vital, but the larger forecasts set the tone for the season.