Invest 91L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[mobilebay]

That was a Mistake=Nhc I was going to say LLC. Also look at the clouds streaming northward...Also look at the shear maps from 45 to 55 west there is a strong shear zone/tutt there.

Thanks for clearing that up. I did not understand what you was saying. I still think this is going to develop though. JMHO

[Thunder44]

Buoy 41041 reported one-minute average sustained wind of about 24.5kts this hour. It's just north of the LLC about 50 to 75 miles, under a little blob of convection that going is by. Pressure have farily low this morning down to around 1011mb or 29.85" Despite the meager convection, we might have enough for TD here.

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

[O Town]

Isn't all the stuff I circled African dust blowing off the coast? Could that be inhibiting convection?

[Thunder44]

Pretty good burst of convection at 10:45 UTC right over the center. Let see if it persists.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[Aquawind]

Isn't all the stuff I circled African dust blowing off the coast? Could that be inhibiting convection?

Looks to be the dry air layer alrighty..



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

[HURAKAN]

VS



ACCUWEATHER

VS

ACCUWEATHER


Are they contradicting themselves, or am I wrong?

[OURAGAN]

Wind shear is decreasing on the path of this system.

[OURAGAN]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

[kenl01]

Doesn't look too promising:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200608

However, as the wave continues westward at 15-20 mph, it is forecast to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system northeast of Puerto Rico (Figure 1). This strong wind shear should weaken or destroy the wave. This is shown well by the GFDL model, which intensifies the wave into a weak tropical storm by Wednesday, then dissipates it later in the week. None of the other computer models develop the wave at all.

[OURAGAN]

YES, but i am living in Guadeloupe and the wind shear will not be stong for the lesser antilles.

[Thunder44]

Doesn't look too promising:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200608

However, as the wave continues westward at 15-20 mph, it is forecast to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system northeast of Puerto Rico (Figure 1). This strong wind shear should weaken or destroy the wave. This is shown well by the GFDL model, which intensifies the wave into a weak tropical storm by Wednesday, then dissipates it later in the week. None of the other computer models develop the wave at all.

That post was from yesterday morning though. The ULL doesn't look as well defined on water vapor imagery this morning. It appears to be weakening:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[cycloneye]

08/1145 UTC 12.6N 46.7W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic Ocean


SSD gives 91L almost TD numbers.

[HURAKAN]

Convection will continue to struggle, development unlikely at the moment.

[caneman]

Doesn't look too promising:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200608

However, as the wave continues westward at 15-20 mph, it is forecast to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system northeast of Puerto Rico (Figure 1). This strong wind shear should weaken or destroy the wave. This is shown well by the GFDL model, which intensifies the wave into a weak tropical storm by Wednesday, then dissipates it later in the week. None of the other computer models develop the wave at all.

That post is 24 hours old. GFDL has maintains it as a TS throughout the Carrib. and as a weak TS near the tip f Haiti at end of run

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Thunder44]

08/1145 UTC 12.6N 46.7W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic Ocean


SSD gives 91L almost TD numbers.

Not suprised. Nice little CDO over the center now.

[Thunder44]

Convection will continue to struggle, development unlikely at the moment.

Your Low placement is incorrect. It's right under that ball of convection to the SE.

[HURAKAN]

Convection will continue to struggle, development unlikely at the moment.

Your Low placement is incorrect. It's right under that ball of convection to the SE.

I know that. I just wanted to circle the disturbance and show it has a LLC. Still, that's not important when you see the whole image.

[Thunder44]

Convection will continue to struggle, development unlikely at the moment.

Your Low placement is incorrect. It's right under that ball of convection to the SE.

I know that. I just wanted to circle the disturbance and show it has a LLC. Still, that's not important when you see the whole image.

As long as the deep convection organized and persists around the LLC, that is enough for TD classification. No matter what size or enviornment it is in.

[Frank2]

The disturbance only appears this morning as a weak cyclonic circulation with scattered convection - no TD or CDO there at this time...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg

Frank

[Frank2]

...per the TWD:

A 1010 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N45W
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...POSSIBLY FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.