Invest 91L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[deltadog03]

im not very impressed with this system right now or really ever.

[Emmett_Brown]

When Chris was in a similar position, he looked even more pathetic. At that time, i called for complete evaporation, and i was very wrong... Chris came very close to becoming the first cane of the season.

This one has a bigger envelop, and is currently entering that unfavorable dry area that Chris' wave battled through.

I am sure that this one will come back, and that it will develop. But i dont think it will happen in earnest for another 24 hours at least. I believe it will struggle as a TS until passing through or north of the leewards, but i think development is inevitable. We are looking at our first cane of the season IMO.

Good to see you back Sanibel. I have always been a fan of your "gutcasting"... sometimes there is nothing better than good old fashioned instinct and horse sense.

[miamicanes177]

R.I.P

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

I don't think it's wise to write 91L off so soon.

The NHC says it has a chance, and conditions will become more favorable.

[rainstorm]

i think its already an open wave

[Bailey1777]

We shall see.

[Normandy]

If you look at IR2 you can clearly see its not an open wave

[Bailey1777]

Exactly. It's actually a very rigorous low that's not in the right conditions yet. Give it time.

[Bailey1777]

Buoy 41041

Wind-ENE
Wind Speed-17.5
Gust-21.4
Pressure-29.90

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow. This thread reminds me of the days when the wave that spawned Chris was out there. Lots of people started writing him off and a few days later TD #3 formed and almost became a hurricane. I would not write this one off yet.

[MBismyPlayground]

Hmm, I find it interesting that so many people continue to write these things off. Granted, this one looks about done but, from past history on here, Mother Nature always tends to surprise us when we least expect it.
Seems many of us are expecting the "excitement" of last year.
Check out the archives and read the "surprise' of some board members when Mother Nature knocked them for a loop.

[Derek Ortt]

Big difference from Chris

Chris actually had low level dynamics. This one deos not. Does not matter how favorable upper winds and moisture are if there is nothing at the surface, which this system seems to have at the present time

[wxboy222]

Here is a map of the spaghetti models for 0Z. Just some quick stats:

GFDL 25 KTS
GFS 25 KTS
NGPS 30 KTS
SHIP 62 KTS
DSHIP 58 KTS

[Bailey1777]

Derek,

Would you say this is in a stable environment right now and once it gets past 50W it will be more favorable?

[tropicsPR]

Big difference from Chris

Chris actually had low level dynamics. This one deos not. Does not matter how favorable upper winds and moisture are if there is nothing at the surface, which this system seems to have at the present time

Mr. Ortt, is there an useful satellite image that shows the low level dynamics (If any) of a low pressure area, in this case 91L?

Your answer will be appreciated...

[MGC]

Lots of things working against 91L tonight. Tons of dry air and shear looks to be picking up from the south. Like Chris, I'm not bullish on this disturbance right now.....MGC

[Acral]

Having a hard time seeing this become anything. The Atlantic remains cool, and while the GoM could be a hot bed for explosive growth, the systems either have to spin up there or survive the trip there, and for the next couple of weeks, I am not seeing it happen.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Latest TWO says it wont develop anytime soon:
Full outlook http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropi ... enter_news

Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure about 1200 miles east of the Leeward Islands has shown no sign of development and is not likely to develop in the near future.

[mike815]

I salute u the weather channel u are corect for once once again i salute u!

[TropicalJon]

Looks pretty sad tonight....I would be surprised if this makes a come back...