a quick but very important question

[willjnewton]

is the trough along the eastern united states as of right now in a perfect position for storms to move up the atlantic seabored to the carolinas or is the gulf of mexico at risk for this 2006 hurricane season???

[cheezyWXguy]

Yeah Will, be sure you read carefully before you post. Also, try to be a little more patient when asking questions...it can get annoying when someone posts 3 posts in a row about "HEY CAN SOMEONE PLEASE ANSER MY QUESTION?" People arent always gonna be around to answer your questions all the time. So just be patient, sit back, and relax.

As for my opinion on the position of the high steering the storms...it just seems a little more likey that it moves up the east coast or into the western GOM. Nobody can make an accurate prediction on future storms up to a couple months out. It could go anywhere. Also its never perfectly set up for a landfall every time theres a storm. They could be fish, or even go into the low risk areas of the U.s.

[rainstorm]

for now, the trough is in a position to protect the east coast

[wxmann_91]

Here are my thoughts:

Models

GFS has been inconsitent of late so will disregard that. The ECMWF keeps the trough over the east and the ridge over the Plains. This would favor more landfalls in Mexico and fish, and less U.S. landfalls.

The EWall site has the GFS Ensembles which, if used together, give a pretty good idea of the predictability of the pattern. The Ensemble Mean can be pretty accurate at times if the pattern is stable.

Based on this, for the next week, the U.S. seems to be safe from major landfalling systems (note major since little TS's can inadvertantly pop up and surprise us). As for right now the strong westerly mid level winds advertised and the trough in the east coast would protect it. Again, just an analysis for the week. Afterwards, really do not know how the pattern will go. Not one met would say they can 100% predict what happens.

[Stephanie]

but why the east coast and what data our you basing that on???

Read some of the information already given to you and maybe it will help if you go back through the earlier pages of this forum to get more information about what people think about this season.

As cheesy said, an "expert" or someone that would have a good answer to your question may not be around at the time you ask it. I know it is tough to wait for the answer, but you have to give people a chance. Everyone wants to help you but they just might not be here as often as you are.

[storms in NC]

May I ask you some thing Please? You have asked quite a few times on about the East coast? Are you new to the coast? Because people around here don't worry about a storm till there is one. Then you will here talk starting up. But around here we don't worry till there is something to worry about.

I hope you learn from here it is a good place too. But you kinda strated off on the wrong foot here. Once you see how things are done you should be okay. I know you are young and worried if you never lived on the coast before. You will be okay. Just do what the people here have to say.

I wish you the best

[Stephanie]

May I ask you some thing Please? You have asked quite a few times on about the East coast? Are you new to the coast? Because people around here don't worry about a storm till there is one. Then you will here talk starting up. But around here we don't worry till there is something to worry about.

I hope you learn from here it is a good place too. But you kinda strated off on the wrong foot here. Once you see how things are done you should be okay. I know you are young and worried if you never lived on the coast before. You will be okay. Just do what the people here have to say.

I wish you the best

I want to say that he is, but I'm not 100% certain.

[bvigal]

6:52 pm - as of right now is there a trough over the eastern united states coast???and if there is will that tend to increase the east coast chance of a hurricane landfall for this 2006 hurricane season???and how does the trough or mean trough of the eastern u.s. affect this 2006 hurricane season???, please explain and this will be the last new topic and I WILL LEAVE YOU GUYS ALONE I PROMISE THATS ONLY IF YOU ANSWER MY VERY IMPORTANT QUESTION THOUGH PLEASE

6:57 pm - but please answer my question though, then I will leave you guys alone I promise thankyou

7:01 pm - but I just ask a question, please answer it and as I said before I promise I will leave you alone

7:04 pm - but based on what you are saying steve, where is the trough now and is the east coast at risk for this year???

7:21 pm - hello, where is the trough now, and is the east coast at serious risk for this 2006 hurricane season Rather than the gulf coast hurricane season and please give me the reason why you think that please, thankyou

7:28 pm - someone respond please

7:35 pm - what conditions might have a effect on the east coast of the u.s. getting hit for this 2006 hurricane season more than the gulf of mexico, and based on the conditions and facts do you think that the east coast is at serious risk for this season or the gulf coast anyone???

7:42 pm - but I just need the experts to answer this question please, do they think that based on the conditions that the east coast is at risk for this 2006 hurricane season or the gulf coast???

7:45 pm - but why the east coast and what data our you basing that on???

7:54 pm - is the trough along the eastern united states as of right now in a perfect position for storms to move up the atlantic seabored to the carolinas or is the gulf of mexico at risk for this 2006 hurricane season???


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=87916
hello where our you people, I am NOT trying to be rude or impatient but can someone answer my question please

Although your questions may be pertinent, you ask them as if it is a dier emergency that they are answered immediatly. You don't have to board up anything yet my friend.

Most respectfully, why can't we 'comment' as long as we aren't rude? I did not think wxwonder12's reply was rude at all. On the contrary, he was making a constructive comment in a friendly way. (even using "my friend") Why is wxwonder12 chastised, when the true rudeness here was not? That doesn't seem fair to me, and it made me feel really bad for wxwonder12.

Asking questions is great, that is not the issue. Demanding an answer again and again, without reading the responses, is over the top. For a member to express an opinion to that effect, in a nice way, seems reasonable to me. That isn't flaming or attacking, it's healthy group dynamics.

[george_r_1961]

He lives in SE VA near me. Will may I ask how you found out about storm2k?

[willjnewton]

I apologize about all this and I will try NOT to make any posts or new topics any more, so with that said I do feel uncomfortable about you all talkng about me and I am trying to be you all's friends, can we all still be friends here??? and in fact you may lock this thread up, because I want NO more comments that I have to worry about, okay, do you all understand me??? thanks

[CajunMama]

I will lock the thread at will's request.