Invest 91L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[flhurricaneguy]

gotcha

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not seeing anywhere near the amount of low-level convergence that Chris had; thus, we cannot get vertical ascent.

Convection needs to fire soon over the center, or else it will be yet another Chris, except without the intensification

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree derek...If it where to form convection it would be a depression quick but the shear is pretty strong. I don't see this becoming more then a 40 knot tropical storm if it where to form.

[skysummit]

That little bit of convection surely does seem like it's trying hard to wrap. Gonna be interesting tonight.

[Derek Ortt]

shear's not strong over it now

it just does not have the low-level dynamics yet

[Thunder44]

Low-level convergence map:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm not seeing anywhere near the amount of low-level convergence that Chris had; thus, we cannot get vertical ascent.

Convection needs to fire soon over the center, or else it will be yet another Chris, except without the intensification

If it has had a low level circulation, why is it so imminent that convection must fire soon.. in order to get TC genesis?

How many low level circulations have we seen take a couple to 3 days to get going?

I imagine you are talking about the ULL that is moving SW near this invest.

We currently see this Upper Level low feature depicted by the GFS in the 00 hour of the 12Z run.



24 Hours


36 Hours


48 Hours


Does GFS have this feature Disapating or moving off to the North?

Also some people are saying how this feature isn't showing up on the Global models, GFS isn't really showing that upper level low.

Derek if you could help me understand this I would appriciate it. Thanks...

[Derek Ortt]

no, the system will open up into a wave if it does not get some convection.

And that low-level convergence map indicates that teh dynamics may not be there for this system. Need both the upper and low-level dynamics present

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 PM AST MON AUG 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL WAVE MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA NOT LOCATED
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE AREA BEHIND
WAVE WILL ALLOW A CONTINUING OF THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. OUTSIDE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE SO SIGNIFICANT NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...WHICH IS GOOD BECAUSE EYES WILL BE ON THE TROPICAL
WAVE WITH A WELL DEFINE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. WHAT HAPPENS TO THE WAVE
IS STILL UNSURE...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE I HAVE ACCESS TO SEEMS TO LIKE
THE SYSTEM BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED VERY VERY CLOSELY DURING
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS. IF IT CAN KEEP FAR
ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW TO ITS NORTHWEST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHO KNOWS?


Above is what the NWS of San Juan thinks about this system.

[Swimdude]

I think these "It's ONLY [Insert month here]" comments are getting amusing. Not sure I've ever seen someone say "It's ONLY AUGUST!" before in regards to hurricane season.

"Come on guys, season's not cancelled, it's only Novem... Wait a second."

[flhurricaneguy]

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 072127
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DISORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA...THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

[Bailey1777]

Latest from buoy 41041

Wind-ENE
Wind Speed-17.5
Gust-21.4
Pressure-29.88

[MississippiHurricane]

YAY!!!

[MississippiHurricane]

i will be up all night now (again)

[bvigal]

Hmm? Various agencies and commercial met offices continue to call this a wave. However, the National Hurricane Center does not include a tropical wave at location of 91L. They dropped the wave from their text descriptions and maps early this morning. Per 2pm TWD - one wave at 23W, one at 67W.

New 2100z danger map is out, still showing possible development area from 91L. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/danger_atl_21bw.gif

[Bailey1777]

Me too it's kind of neat to be there for the birth of these things.(WHEN IT HAPPENS!)

[MississippiHurricane]

Its like being there when a baby is born kinda thing.

[SouthFloridawx]

Hmm? Various agencies and commercial met offices continue to call this a wave. However, the National Hurricane Center does not include a tropical wave at location of 91L. They dropped the wave from their text descriptions and maps early this morning. Per 2pm TWD - one wave at 23W, one at 67W.

New 2100z danger map is out, still showing possible development area from 91L. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/danger_atl_21bw.gif

Do you have any link?

[bvigal]

Buoy 41041 at 5pm
Wind-ENE
Wind Speed-17.5
Gust-21.4
Pressure-29.88

Buoy 41041 at 7am this morning:
Wind-ENE
Wind Speed 17.5
Gust-21.4
Pressure-29.89

Not enough to convince me this is any more than daily rise and fall of pressure. We'll have to continue to watch this for a trend.