the quitest season on record

#41 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:28 pm

Apparently since we do not have a traffic jam of hurricanes across the basin now people are getting the misconception that this is a "slow" year. Conditions are only marginal at best now for TC formation and that my friends is "normal".

rainstorm · #42 Postby **rainstorm** » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:30 pm

the pattern sure isnt changing fast. lets see what happens in a few weeks

#43 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:33 pm

george_r_1961 wrote:Apparently since we do not have a traffic jam of hurricanes across the basin now people are getting the misconception that this is a "slow" year. Conditions are only marginal at best now for TC formation and that my friends is "normal".

To add about what george said,the 2006 season is acting like a normal year meaning that when the peak of the season arrives from August 15th to September 30th with the peak day at September 10th,we will be in the forum tracking storms and hurricanes.Just be patient folks.

#44 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:36 pm

rainstorm wrote:the pattern sure isnt changing fast. lets see what happens in a few weeks

Its changing though. Granted we will not see anything like last year but IMO its irresponsible and dangerous to think that the season will be a dud considering we are only 2-3 weeks away from the normal upswing in TC formation.

dwg71 · #45 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:45 pm

The problem with this year, and any other to come post Katrina, we are living in a new age of media, blogs, and up to the second technology.

Heck, how many people pegged Chris as "Houston's Storm", it beyond ridiculous the hype and hysteria that is assigned to every thunderstorm in the Atlantic basin from June to November.

US landfalling hurricanes are rare occurences, let alone major hurricanes, but in light of recent events we are expecting 5 a year to make landfall in the US, but history tells us that this won't be the case very often. 1995 had 19 named storms how many were major hurricanes that made US landfall - 0. 2 did make landfall as hurricanes (Opal and Erin). That was one of the busiest seasons on record and a landfalling hurricane in the US was still a rare occurance.

Prepare for the worst, expect the best, and don't over or under react any storm. Statements like "Chris will be a Cat 4 or 5 in central gulf", are just hogwash. Just as much as "season cancel" posts.

Predicting tracks have improved immensly over the years, but forcasting development and strengthening or weakening and dissapation are still in its infancy.

#46 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:51 pm

Right! It just stands to reason that most areas that "try" to organize are going to meet some form of environmental demise. If that were not so, we would have 150 hurricanes/year. To get so upset because a spin with some potential then encounters shear, for instance, and project that into a "season is dead" or "Atlantic won't support storms" attitude, is like looking at a map with a microscope - you just aren't seeing the whole picture!

TexasStooge · #47 Postby **TexasStooge** » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:51 pm

willjnewton wrote:just be thankfull people that this hurricane season is dead and quiet

I wouldn't say "dead and quiet", all can change in a SNAP!

Regit · #48 Postby **Regit** » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:56 pm

People keep saying that 2006 is normal. Actually, 3 storms by August 1 is double the normal activity for a year. Not to say, we're on track for 20 storms but I see no reason to think activity should slow down.

#49 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:58 pm

Regit wrote:People keep saying that 2006 is normal. Actually, 3 storms by August 1 is double the normal activity for a year. Not to say, we're on track for 20 storms, but I see no reason to think activity should slow down.

Come to think of it you are right. Last year distorted my sense of normalcy a little as well.

Derek Ortt · #50 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:59 pm

correction, dwg

The USA had 2 landfalling major hurricanes in 1995 (1 in the VI)

Opal was a 3, albiet questionably, and Marilyn will almost certainly be raised to a 3 on the reanalysis (112KT at flight level equates to 100 at the surface)

Yankeegirl · #51 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon Aug 07, 2006 4:00 pm

I think that last year "feels" like the norm cause the season just lasted forever!!!

#52 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Aug 07, 2006 4:02 pm

Yankeegirl wrote:I think that last year "feels" like the norm cause the season just lasted forever!!!

Yes Lisa well put.

Im not trying to sound like an alarmist here but im afraid this season so far has lured ppl into complacency. THAT scares me.

dwg71 · #53 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Aug 07, 2006 4:05 pm

Regit wrote:People keep saying that 2006 is normal. Actually, 3 storms by August 1 is double the normal activity for a year. Not to say, we're on track for 20 storms, but I see no reason to think activity should slow down.

3 can't be double anything, unless we have 1/2 storms running around. :lol:

Long term averages averages are good for reviewing after the fact, but as far as the time being 3 TS as of 8/8 is a pretty "normal" season.

dwg71 · #54 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Aug 07, 2006 4:09 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:correction, dwg

The USA had 2 landfalling major hurricanes in 1995 (1 in the VI)

Opal was a 3, albiet questionably, and Marilyn will almost certainly be raised to a 3 on the reanalysis (112KT at flight level equates to 100 at the surface)

I stand corrected on Opal, but only considered CONUS in my post.

Hurrilurker · #55 Postby **Hurrilurker** » Mon Aug 07, 2006 4:14 pm

george_r_1961 wrote:Im not trying to sound like an alarmist here but im afraid this season so far has lured ppl into complacency. THAT scares me.

Right now, yes, but as soon as anything forms that's even remotely pointing towards US land, I'm pretty sure the hype machine and the paranoia will go into overdrive (see above post about people in Houston buying out stores because of Chris, which was...what...1500+ miles away? And a tropical storm at that).

mempho · #56 Postby **mempho** » Mon Aug 07, 2006 4:14 pm

I'm a big fan of tracking storms myself as is everyone here, BUT, like other posters have said:

1) Your original post has absolutely no basis in fact (instead, you are comparing the most extreme year on record to this year and you are forgetting that in terms of #s of storms we are nowhere near the peak (just look at the graph...late August is game time)

2) I really would like to be able to sacrifice being able to track storms if it means no U.S. damage

3) I don't care to see any majors in the Gulf or anything of the sort; the Alaskan pipeline is shutdown, we don't need another shutdown in the Gulf or its going to hurt all of us.

willjnewton · #57 Postby **willjnewton** » Mon Aug 07, 2006 4:22 pm

please note that this is a message to Jesse V. Bass or vacanechaser ONLY but any way Jesse so you are still saying that you think more east coast hurricanes than the gulf of mexico am I correct???
and there is NOT going to be a el nino am I correct and which part of the area is most likely at risk along the east coast and please tell me why that you think that, Also and Jesse I am very sorry about all this confusion with relationships but can we all just get along in this earth and be very friendly too each other please

thankyou

dwg71 · #58 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Aug 07, 2006 4:24 pm

If Willie says "you think more east coast hurricanes than the gulf of mexico am I correct???" one more time, I'm going to remove every hair from my head individually - just for fun. :lol:

#59 Postby **secretforecaster** » Mon Aug 07, 2006 4:30 pm

dwg71 wrote:If Willie says "you think more east coast hurricanes than the gulf of mexico am I correct???" one more time, I'm going to remove every hair from my head individually - just for fun.

willjnewton · #60 Postby **willjnewton** » Mon Aug 07, 2006 4:34 pm

Jesse V. Bass, where our you I just asked a question for you so please answer it

the quitest season on record

Who is online