Invest 91L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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storms in NC
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#61 Postby storms in NC » Mon Aug 07, 2006 2:38 pm

it is ar around 12 north and 40 west. Not a fish. If it was at say 20 40 then yes I would say a fish. But it has to become a TD first then we can guess where.
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#62 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 07, 2006 2:55 pm

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

Let's watch this bouy located at 14.6n-46.0w to see if the pressures fall and how the winds are blowing and from what direction.Right now the pressures are falling but that may be the usual afternoon cycle.If by tonight they keep falling,then something is up in that area to pay attention.
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#63 Postby flhurricaneguy » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:02 pm

winds are up
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#64 Postby miamicanes177 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:04 pm

track and intensity 18Z:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity1.png
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Derek Ortt

#65 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:08 pm

only the statistical models show intensification from this

that said one blow up of convection would allow this to attain TD status... just a question regarding how long this would last
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#66 Postby miamicanes177 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:09 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:only the statistical models show intensification from this
what do you say?
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#67 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:10 pm

one thing I have noticed is that the models that take this system north are less reliable than those that take it south in this kind of situation.

My best guess ATM is that this will take a route into the eastern Caribbean and move west under the ridge toward the Yucatan peninsula in about 7-9 days. If it takes this track, then it will likely become a hurricane during it's lifetime. Once near the Yucatan it could either go north into the Gulf (if there is a weakness or removal of the ridge), or it could go into the BOC and Mexico (if the ridge remains strong). The exact long-term track, however, can be discussed in greater detail after this develops (which is still not set in stone).
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Derek Ortt

#68 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:10 pm

the dynamical models drop this system... only statistical or hybrid models lke this system
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#69 Postby Bailey1777 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:10 pm

Derek what is your opinion at this point. Is it going to get ripped. It looks that way to me.
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#70 Postby george_r_1961 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:14 pm

flhurricaneguy wrote:seasons over


Statements like that irk me. It is now early August..close to the time things start to get going. As has been stated many times here:

This is a normal season. This is not 2005.
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#71 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:19 pm



Not another Chris. I'll go mad :grr:
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#72 Postby flhurricaneguy » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:20 pm

come on 07
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#73 Postby skysummit » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:22 pm

flhurricaneguy wrote:come on 07


Oh well....I hope you enjoyed your time here at S2K because I have a strong feeling we'll be telling you good riddins soon.
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#74 Postby Bailey1777 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:23 pm

You can see it fighting, if it could just hold it's convection. What a hostile Atlantic.
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#75 Postby all_we_know_is_FALLING » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:24 pm

george_r_1961 wrote:
flhurricaneguy wrote:seasons over


Statements like that irk me. It is now early August..close to the time things start to get going. As has been stated many times here:

This is a normal season. This is not 2005.


THANK YOU! All of these "season over" or "boring season" posts are really getting sour fast.
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jhamps10

#76 Postby jhamps10 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:25 pm

rnbaida wrote:This is 100% a fish... It wont even come close to the bahamas.


Well I see he is not going to back up his findings, so I say let's just competely ingore him from here on out, thank you.

oh and flhurricane- :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: IT'S ONLY AUGUST!!!!!! :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: Just because we have not had 8 tropical storms and 3 major hurricanes this season is not over!!!!!!!
Last edited by jhamps10 on Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#77 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:25 pm

Who says it will be better for development in 2007? The SOI is in the hole which is a sign of a El nino. If that develops it could be worst.
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#78 Postby Bailey1777 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:26 pm

I agee if that's your feeling why remain here. Just move on and let the rest of us enjoy.
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flhurricaneguy
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#79 Postby flhurricaneguy » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:27 pm

I was just kidding. didnt mean to offend anyone
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jhamps10

#80 Postby jhamps10 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:29 pm

well bit of advice,if you was joking, put in an emoticon stating so like the following:

:lol: :fools: or just a simple j/k for just joking.
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