Invest 91L,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Derek Ortt]

that seems to be between both systems

[HURAKAN]

that seems to be between both systems

Agree.

[bvigal]

In this graphic, is the NHC pointing to the tropical wave, or the Azores Low?

LOL, that has be scratching my head, too, HURAKAN!! It came out the same time as TWO:
A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1275 MILES EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR
TOMORROW.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
Which sounds like the most possibility? Not the one on the map!

[StormWarning1]

In this graphic, is the NHC pointing to the tropical wave, or the Azores Low?

It is suppose to be the tropical wave. The Azores low is being called non-tropical by the NHC.

Someone screwed up, putting the area of Possible Formation 10 degrees to far North.

Also, the area should be stretched futher West, considiring the speed this is moving, it will be past 50W in less than 36 hours.

[Brent]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/danger_atl_latestBW.gif

In this graphic, is the NHC pointing to the tropical wave, or the Azores Low?

Huh?

That doesn't make sense.

[abajan]

Remember how the NHC basically kept saying how the last system might become a TD at anytime when most of us thought just the opposite because it looked so terribly disorganised and conditions seemed unfavorable?

What happened? CHRIS!

Give them some credit folks.

[bvigal]

Remember how the NHC basically kept saying how the last system might become a TD at anytime when most of us thought just the opposite because it looked so terribly disorganised and conditions seemed unfavorable?

What happened? CHRIS!

Give them some credit folks.

Abajan, I give them all the credit in the world. It's just that that latest graphic doesn't seem to fit with the TWO, it truly looks like a mistake. This made even more confusing after the 9z graphic, seen here:

[Windtalker1]

Remember how the NHC basically kept saying how the last system might become a TD at anytime when most of us thought just the opposite because it looked so terribly disorganised and conditions seemed unfavorable?

What happened? CHRIS!

Give them some credit folks.

Visible looks lik new storms are starting to wrap around again after the other convection was blown off to the west. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[bvigal]

I just checked and can find no evidence of another INVEST or anything else being analyzed. Either the graph is an error, OR, they now expect 91L.INVEST to move to the NORTHEAST.... FINE with me!!

[tgenius]

So if they have a planned recon flight (obviously they can be cancelled) that seems pretty evident that NHC feels this will be a possible player.

[SouthFloridawx]

Maybe but I've yet to see a good point as to why it won't develop and/or is terribly disorganized.

Ummm ... no deep convection ... worse upper air conditions ahead ...

Where are these Worse Upper Air conditions your talking about?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Shear

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html
Mid-Level Windshear

I keep hearing talk about this ULL that is going to rip this thing apart but, I have not seen anyone give any evidence either of the unfavorable conditions in the near term for this thing.

It will be moving into a more favorable environment during the next 12-24 hours were there is only 5-10 knots of shear, unlike the 10-20kts of shear it is currently under including mid level shear.

Please show me some evidence that would contradict the models showing a retrograding ULL in 60 hours.

[flhurricaneguy]

looks pretty good on sat

[SouthFloridawx]

I just checked and can find no evidence of another INVEST or anything else being analyzed. Either the graph is an error, OR, they now expect 91L.INVEST to move to the NORTHEAST.... FINE with me!!

I wouldn't put too, too much stock into a graphic. Perhaps you should go by the forecast in the TWO and TWD and your local forecasts and maybe send TPC an email letting them know thier graphic is wrong.

[wxmann_91]

Not only is the shear from the ULL stronger to the WNW, there's also the dry air:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

Also evidenced by Stratocumulus on the visibles.

[JonathanBelles]

how many times will that map be on this page?

[caneman]

Maybe but I've yet to see a good point as to why it won't develop and/or is terribly disorganized.

Ummm ... no deep convection ... worse upper air conditions ahead ...

Where are these Worse Upper Air conditions your talking about?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Shear

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html
Mid-Level Windshear

I keep hearing talk about this ULL that is going to rip this thing apart but, I have not seen anyone give any evidence either of the unfavorable conditions in the near term for this thing.

It will be moving into a more favorable environment during the next 12-24 hours were there is only 5-10 knots of shear, unlike the 10-20kts of shear it is currently under including mid level shear.

Please show me some evidence that would contradict the models showing a retrograding ULL in 60 hours.

Well you beat me to it. The ULL is divings SW.

[MGC]

this system has some potential the next couple of days. Dry air is the main concern in the short term, with shear from the ULL a couple of days out. If some more convection could form it could be upgraded to a TD......MGC

[bvigal]

I just checked and can find no evidence of another INVEST or anything else being analyzed. Either the graph is an error, OR, they now expect 91L.INVEST to move to the NORTHEAST.... FINE with me!!

I wouldn't put too, too much stock into a graphic. Perhaps you should go by the forecast in the TWO and TWD and your local forecasts and maybe send TPC an email letting them know thier graphic is wrong.

Oh don't worry, I sure know 91 isn't going east!!!

how many times will that map be on this page?

Sorry 789, the map was posted simultaneously by 2 people. The 3rd occurence is a different map.

[curtadams]

This thing is not currently being troubled overmuch by shear. Convection stays close to the center and doesn't get blown away. The problem is dry air: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 0split.jpg It's north of where Chris was so it's actually a bit into the SAL. I don't see it developing sucking fumes like that but it's got a nice little circulation going so it's not likely to completely disappear. IMO it's likely to stay about what it is until it reaches the W Carib, and then maybe it will develop. But, it certainly could hit a wet patch and develop (or an extended dry/ shear patch and dissipate) . As usual the NHC is pretty ontrack.

[Cyclenall]

how many times will that map be on this page?

People keep quoting that map and they should instead edit the quote so it doesn't show.