Invest 91L,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Derek Ortt

#441 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:23 am

Because scientists in the same field often disagree
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#442 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:26 am

Derek Ortt wrote:may be time to start looking for another system. This one just does not have it, it appears


what's new....
Seems to be the trend this year with no indication of changing anytime soon.
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#443 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:26 am

Derek Ortt wrote:I thought this would have been a TD by now, then a TS by tonight, followed by a couple of days of slow intensification, then weakening due to shear.

This one is just taking forever to form and is running out of time


Latest visible images starting to show some of the low-level clouds starting to shift from west to east. There seems to be a LLC forming now near 12N/41.5W. TPC seems willing to upgrade it to TD this afternoon if convection increases around center.
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#444 Postby hcane27 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:26 am

Derek Ortt wrote:I thought this would have been a TD by now, then a TS by tonight, followed by a couple of days of slow intensification, then weakening due to shear.

This one is just taking forever to form and is running out of time


It probably already has .... 8:05 am disc ....

A 1010 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N38W

Marine offshore 11:30 am disc ...

SYNOPSIS...A 1012 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 12N42W THIS AFTERNOON
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#445 Postby Wthrman13 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:32 am

I don't see any huge problems with shear in the near term. Looks like it still has a good day or so before that UL starts becoming a potential problem. The further south it stays, of course, the better.
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#446 Postby tgenius » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:33 am

hcane27 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:I thought this would have been a TD by now, then a TS by tonight, followed by a couple of days of slow intensification, then weakening due to shear.

This one is just taking forever to form and is running out of time


It probably already has .... 8:05 am disc ....

A 1010 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N38W

Marine offshore 11:30 am disc ...

SYNOPSIS...A 1012 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 12N42W THIS AFTERNOON


That sure would indicate this invest is running on empty :D
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#447 Postby Patrick99 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:35 am

Yeah, it's great......

......for a system with absolutely no deep convection.
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#448 Postby Windtalker1 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:36 am

MortisFL wrote:I dont understand how you can completely go against the experts at NHC.
Seems like he always does.
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#449 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:38 am

MortisFL wrote:I dont understand how you can completely go against the experts at NHC.


i don't think what he is saying is much different than what they are saying

both are saying it may possibly turn into a TD
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Derek Ortt

#450 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:38 am

I know of a lot of others who often go against NHC on this forum... only its when NHC says no development
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#451 Postby Wthrman13 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:42 am

As a general principle in science, it's fine to go against what others are saying, as long as you are prepared to back up your reasoning with sound arguments, and not just for the sake of being a contrarian (not saying anyone here is doing that, but worth keeping in mind).
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#452 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:43 am

Derek Ortt wrote:I know of a lot of others who often go against NHC on this forum... only its when NHC says no development


:lol: :lol:

Good point.
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#453 Postby Stratosphere747 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:45 am

x-y-no wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:I know of a lot of others who often go against NHC on this forum... only its when NHC says no development


:lol: :lol:

Good point.


I'll second that.....
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Derek Ortt

#454 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:45 am

might be worth mentioning, but a new experimental version of SHIPS (I think available on the plots shown), does not intensify this for 3 days. However, SHIPS seems to be severely underdoing the shear at days 3-5
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#455 Postby fwbbreeze » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:46 am

Derek Ortt wrote:I know of a lot of others who often go against NHC on this forum... only its when NHC says no development


:lol: :lol: touche

fwbbreeze
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#456 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:48 am

Derek Ortt wrote:might be worth mentioning, but a new experimental version of SHIPS (I think available on the plots shown), does not intensify this for 3 days. However, SHIPS seems to be severely underdoing the shear at days 3-5


GFS is retrograding that ULL back northward from 60 hours on.
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caneman

#457 Postby caneman » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:49 am

x-y-no wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:I know of a lot of others who often go against NHC on this forum... only its when NHC says no development


:lol: :lol:

Good point.


Maybe but I've yet to see a good point as to why it won't develop and/or is terribly disorganized.
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#458 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 07, 2006 11:00 am

Image

In this graphic, is the NHC pointing to the tropical wave, or the Azores Low?
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#459 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 07, 2006 11:01 am

caneman wrote:Maybe but I've yet to see a good point as to why it won't develop and/or is terribly disorganized.



Ummm ... no deep convection ... worse upper air conditions ahead ...
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#460 Postby O Town » Mon Aug 07, 2006 11:04 am

I agree. It looks like it is withering away as far as convection goes.
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